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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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For the big trough later next week, concerned that it'll be tough to avoid any rain with that setup. The until that point persistent west based NAO block is progged to rotate eastward, which would enable a larger height spike ahead of the deep western trough. There being plenty of time to get to a better outcome is the fortunate part of this and the GFS shows one possible way out.

 

It's been a while since I peeked at the long range with the more active pattern of late. No complaints in what they're showing, with solid agreement in a -EPO with much better cold, another plunge of the PNA, and continued -AO/-NAO. The NAO block is forecast to trend from west based to over or just east of Greenland. Meanwhile the MJO is forecast to go into phase 7 with enough amplitude to eventually go into phase 8. The phase 7 composite looks like the canonical Nina base state with southeast ridging.So with the other favorable teleconnection indicies, that pattern could be wintry and active if it works out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

For the big trough later next week, concerned that it'll be tough to avoid any rain with that setup. The until that point persistent west based NAO block is progged to rotate eastward, which would enable a larger height spike ahead of the deep western trough. There being plenty of time to get to a better outcome is the fortunate part of this and the GFS shows one possible way out.

It's been a while since I peeked at the long range with the more active pattern of late. No complaints in what they're showing, with solid agreement in a -EPO with much better cold, another plunge of the PNA, and continued -AO/-NAO. The NAO block is forecast to trend from west based to over or just east of Greenland. Meanwhile the MJO is forecast to go into phase 7 with enough amplitude to eventually go into phase 8. The phase 7 composite looks like the canonical Nina base state with southeast ridging.So with the other favorable teleconnection industries, that pattern could be wintry and active if it works out.

That trough/pattern in late March/April for lack of a better term... yikes. :twister:

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Will we ever have another 7-10 day clipper train period?  And don't say that NW flow set up we had with 2-3 waves of 1/2" snowfalls in 35 degree temps was it. It was not. I'm talking an energetic wave train with  arctic air in place that puts down 3-4' on 0.15 of QPF in the heart of winter with a solid snowpack already in place every 36 hours or so,

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