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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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37 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

You started it. Pretty clear we are moving into the coldest part, in terms of upstream support, of this winter, but its a "La Nina West". Weak northern jet and zonal flow. East/Eurasia got the good stuff this winter unlike past La Nina west's. My guess we will be pushing into the end of the month and those La Nina west's love to push torches in February at some point..........tick tick tick tick.

This is gibberish. With ridging into AK yielding a Siberian connection (dislodging cold air) and strong -NAO blocking near/over Greenland, an all out torch is highly unlikely ala 2012.

Low frequency (ENSO) signal is not the be all/end all. Hell, south/central Texas got a substantial snow event yesterday, that doesn't typically happen in a La Nina year given the suppressed sub-tropical jet.

Edit: I should've expanded my post yesterday to mention late January as well, since that looks to be when we will see more of a transition.

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Look bozo, asking us not to fanboy over fantasy modeling is like asking us not to be weather hobbyists. Sure, a lot of times the stuff is wrong, but this wouldn't be much of a hobby if we only follow stuff within NAM range. It's one thing if someone pulls up and starts unloading 300 hour+ GFS screenshots, but RC is literally a professional meteorologist so you have absolutely no leg to stand on telling him not to discuss 10-day forecasts in the most accurate, science based manner seen on this forum. 

You are the ball and chain around this forum's ankles. Go be a drag somewhere else.

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12 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

low frequency enso phases tied to other indicators definitely can tell you alot. So Texas had a substantial snow event, that means what in the end??? Especially the fast melt job that will be. This board persistently humps modeling between 168-240 and that simply has gotten old. Trends don't die, they change with the pattern.

Nobodys humping anything. People are discussing long range winter. Simply checking out the models in the long range does no harm. I think everyone knows to take them with a grain of salt. Check out the thread title. There's nothing else going on currently in the region so there's not much else to focus on. Its prob best if you stay out of the thread, and not scare away the people with actual knowledge

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low frequency enso phases tied to other indicators definitely can tell you alot. So Texas had a substantial snow event, that means what in the end??? Especially the fast melt job that will be. This board persistently humps modeling between 168-240 and that simply has gotten old. Trends don't die, they change with the pattern.

I shouldn't engage but I'll say this, this subforum shows a lot of restraint when it comes to medium range threats compared to other subforums and other forums in general. This is not just because of threats evaporating in the short range the past 2 winters and this winter sucking so far, it's something I've noticed over the years.  

 

 

All we're trying to do here is nail when the pattern will finally become more favorable for regular snow threats. It's not humping modeling, it's diagnosing the pattern and potential it has should the ensembles be on the right track. Most people who come in here to read want to learn something and also when we finally could get a good snow producer, not hear you gripe at others constantly and acting like you know it all.

 

I've certainly been overly optimistic in the past, I love snow myself, and this winter, this long boring stretch sucks. But I'm trying to be realistic while also talking about how this could be a legit decent pattern we're heading into, no guarantees though like always when it comes to forecasting at longer ranges. Others are trying to do the same, and I kindly suggest you read more and post/bitch less.

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Then the 00z changes again. Why you people get hyped on 168-240 evolution always is bizarre.

You have really become quite insufferable.  Nobody is locking anything in, and yes, 00z could look different, but we are waiting for things to get better and now it is sort of coming into range.

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So Texas had a substantial snow event, that means what in the end??? Especially the fast melt job that will be.

tth.

what is the fascination with snow at all then, given it always melts in varying time anyhow. some areas in the southern plains are on track for one of their snowiest winters...so it means a lot in the end actually.


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53 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

low frequency enso phases tied to other indicators definitely can tell you alot. So Texas had a substantial snow event, that means what in the end??? Especially the fast melt job that will be. This board persistently humps modeling between 168-240 and that simply has gotten old. Trends don't die, they change with the pattern.

Posting/discussing ensemble forecasts in that range is problematic how? That's what they're designed for.

Also, you were the one that made a blanket statement about west-based La Ninas, not me. The point is that we haven't exactly been in a "typical" pattern of La Nina (or anything close to what you are claiming) recently. Ongoing -NAO argues against a torch, as does the potential for ridging over the EPAC/AK later in the month.

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Noticing too on the teleconnections today that some are trending the East Pacific Oscillation to negative toward the latter portion of January (around the 20th). When combined with the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation being negative, things could get interesting as we trend deeper into January. Also to note, some of the forecast models do develop the ridge in Alaska as well during the same time period. 

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5 minutes ago, steve23guy said:

Since I’m horrid at figuring out models and stuff , can someone show me what models are saying for northern Illinois / southern Wisconsin this Thursday/ Friday .. I’m being told 3-5? Ehhhh? 

There's a model or two that is in that vicinity, but 3-5 is probably an optimistic appraisal of the situation right now. Here in Aurora, I'll be happy with a dusting. 

Edit: Correct me if I'm wrong.

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There's a model or two that is in that vicinity, but 3-5 is probably an optimistic appraisal of the situation right now. Here in Aurora, I'll be happy with a dusting. 

Edit: Correct me if I'm wrong.

Dusting is probably a good expectation. Sometimes these upper lows can produce a period of decent snow if you get a well timed 700 mb wave, but that'll be a few days to sort out. The 12z Euro was more generous with the ULL snow, maybe that's what was cited for 3-5" prediction. That would be absolute high end, a couple inches would be pretty good fortune.

 

 

 

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Euro weeklies is warm for late Jan into most of February 
Gotta be careful just looking at the temperature anomalies on those weeklies. The mean 500 mb pattern and anomalies suggests that the western ridge will continue to retrograde to more of a Aleutian ridge common in La Nina but we should keep NAO blocking if the effects of the SSW make it to North America.

A good poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO) continues to provide cold air delivery into the northern CONUS, as opposed to a strong lobe of the polar vortex over the entire AK domain (like 2012) which torched the CONUS all winter. While a -WPO/-PNA pattern does introduce a warmer risk by themselves as southeast ridge is allowed to flex more, having the AO/NAO stay negative is key and could keep a wintrier pattern going instead of warmer cutters that only benefit MSP and points north/northwest.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Gotta be careful just looking at the temperature anomalies on those weeklies. The mean 500 mb pattern and anomalies suggests that the western ridge will continue to retrograde to more of a Aleutian ridge common in La Nina but we should keep NAO blocking if the effects of the SSW make it to North America.

A good poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO) continues to provide cold air delivery into the northern CONUS, as opposed to a strong lobe of the polar vortex over the entire AK domain (like 2012) which torched the CONUS all winter. While a -WPO/-PNA pattern does introduce a warmer risk by themselves as southeast ridge is allowed to flex more, having the AO/NAO stay negative is key and could keep a wintrier pattern going instead of warmer cutters that only benefit MSP and points north/northwest.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Cutters. 

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36 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Id rather not have a cool spring so a jump right into spring in march would be welcome. 

I think the opposite happens. 40’s/50’s and 60’s April to almost memorial weekend. Even some flakes in early May! Lol 

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