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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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Last year I started this thread on October 19.  I didn't necessarily expect to be starting this one even earlier, but here we are.

Extended looks to feature some bouts of unseasonable chill, with perhaps a synoptic snow system or two between now and the end of the month.  At the very least, the lake effect snow machine should fire up.

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3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'm happily getting that 2007-08 vibe. Dry Fall to start now as we head into winter its getting stormier. The computer forecasts are always to be taken with a grain of salt, but above avg precip in winter seems to be a near unanimous signal at this early stage.

That winter was awesome. Let's hope this cold end to October doesn't translate to a mild DJF like last year.

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5 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

That winter was awesome. Let's hope this cold end to October doesn't translate to a mild DJF like last year.

Another thing is no 2 winters are ever identical. As it is October 2007 was very warm with a late peak color, in contrast to this cool October with its early peak color. 2007-08 was certainly not my favorite Winter, because it did not have the constant buried in snow of 2013-14 due to its Nina-esque thaws being common. But from a storm parade standpoint you can not ask for more. Fingers crossed!

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18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Another thing is no 2 winters are ever identical. As it is October 2007 was very warm with a late peak color, in contrast to this cool October with its early peak color. 2007-08 was certainly not my favorite Winter, because it did not have the constant buried in snow of 2013-14 due to its Nina-esque thaws being common. But from a storm parade standpoint you can not ask for more. Fingers crossed!

Yeah being a little further east of my location you may have ended up on the warm side of more of those cutters in 2007-08. My area ended up with about 88" that year

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40 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Another thing is no 2 winters are ever identical. As it is October 2007 was very warm with a late peak color, in contrast to this cool October with its early peak color. 2007-08 was certainly not my favorite Winter, because it did not have the constant buried in snow of 2013-14 due to its Nina-esque thaws being common. But from a storm parade standpoint you can not ask for more. Fingers crossed!

I will take that, we were buried in snow most of DJF but there was that early-mid January thaw that also included a regional tornado outbreak.

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07-08 is arguably one of the best winters in the last 30+ years.  Apart from snow cover retention and lack of arctic air that 2013-14 featured, it was constantly stormy. I'd be shocked if you’re in the Great Lakes region and don't want a repeat of that winter unless you got rain with every storm. Even parts of the Ohio Valley did well that winter. 

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Just now, CheeselandSkies said:

I'd take the constant storminess over the extended arctic air and modest-to-moderate snowstorms. '13-'14 got to be brutal and my power bills were astronomical in my electric-heated apartment.

Same here. I honestly don't remember 13-14 to be that extraordinary outside of the constant cold around here. We didn't get nearly the same snow amounts as pretty much the rest of the Midwest did. 07-08 on the other hand, well it's 07-08. It's our snowiest winter by over 30". Even up here by Green Bay it is one of the snowier winters up here with like 80". What is crazy about that winter is it was all pretty much nickel and dimes. We really only had one big storm in 2/6/08. The rest of the winter it was just constant 3-5 inchers with some 6-8's spread in there too.

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9 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

Same here. I honestly don't remember 13-14 to be that extraordinary outside of the constant cold around here. We didn't get nearly the same snow amounts as pretty much the rest of the Midwest did. 07-08 on the other hand, well it's 07-08. It's our snowiest winter by over 30". Even up here by Green Bay it is one of the snowier winters up here with like 80". What is crazy about that winter is it was all pretty much nickel and dimes. We really only had one big storm in 2/6/08. The rest of the winter it was just constant 3-5 inchers with some 6-8's spread in there too.

 We were like ground 0 in 13-14 here. Almost 100" of snow, brutal cold, it had at all. Truly a class all its own. But 07-08 was a good Winter as well, not really all that cold relatively speaking, but a Winter storm parade almost nonstop from December through March.  Something that sits well with many also is that Winter did not start too early nor did it linger on way into the end of April or may as has been the case in recent years (though we had a hell of a Good Friday snowstorm Mar 21). It was just extremely heavily packed for DJFM.

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On 10/19/2020 at 12:51 PM, Geoboy645 said:

Same here. I honestly don't remember 13-14 to be that extraordinary outside of the constant cold around here. We didn't get nearly the same snow amounts as pretty much the rest of the Midwest did. 07-08 on the other hand, well it's 07-08. It's our snowiest winter by over 30". Even up here by Green Bay it is one of the snowier winters up here with like 80". What is crazy about that winter is it was all pretty much nickel and dimes. We really only had one big storm in 2/6/08. The rest of the winter it was just constant 3-5 inchers with some 6-8's spread in there too.

Here we scored (3) legit warned storms. Dec 15th was 10", the New Years Eve storm was an 8-10" event, and then the March 21-22 storm that delivered a full 13". Feb didn't feature a biggie despite getting around 30" for the month.

And then 08-09, it just got better..more cold and more snow. Actually, for here, 13-14 narrowly edged 08-09 in total snow, but ofc is the hands down winner in days with deep snow cover.

1/6/14, Depth ~22", Temp @ -16F, with a balmy -41F WC

 

Driveway Jan 6, 2014.jpg

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

upcoming looks way boring and mild, i guess maybe a good thing to blow some boring weather during a climatologically blah period anyways and hope things flip active towards end of month, weeklies also grim

 

Capture.JPG

If that holds could grill out the turkey this Thanksgiving 

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2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

upcoming looks way boring and mild, i guess maybe a good thing to blow some boring weather during a climatologically blah period anyways and hope things flip active towards end of month, weeklies also grim

 

Capture.JPG

 I've had enough years of experience to know that while my mind is ready for snow November 1st, it's much better to blow mild boring weather the 1st half of November.

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3 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Pattern for early November reminds me a bit of 1917

Yeah, look at early 1918. Big -NAO driven pattern that created a historical period the first half of January.

We need a 1-12-1918 redux. Earliest news accounts of rescuing stranded motorists I've personally seen.

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