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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


JoMo
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Well looks like it is over now minus the snow flurries. That last piece of energy? dropped a few more inches, got about 4-4.5" out there. Meh not bad, could have been better but its still a beautiful cold fluffy snow. Winds really aren't that bad either yet. Heres to hoping for tuesday nights storm!!! At least the silly snow drought is over after 7 years lol

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4 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Well looks like it is over now minus the snow flurries. That last piece of energy? dropped a few more inches, got about 4-4.5" out there. Meh not bad, could have been better but its still a beautiful cold fluffy snow. Winds really aren't that bad either yet. Heres to hoping for tuesday nights storm!!! At least the silly snow drought is over after 7 years lol

You should keep declaring the storm over, you'll end up with a foot :P

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14 hours ago, schoeppeya said:

I work for a company that trades power and natural gas for several co-ops across the country. To say this weekend has been a mess is an understatement. Nat gas was trading at $600/dth at one point friday in the cash market and theres a very real possibility demand exceeds power supply at some point. 

I assume this explains the rolling power outages in TX? Over 2 million customers without power there as of around an hour ago. 

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4.25" of snow in Monett as of my 6 a.m. measurement and it has been really snowing since 6:30 again. It is -4. Yeesh. That measurement is a best guess because of drifting.

Need to check the models and see what they are saying about the next system, too. This has been a couple of weeks to remember for sure. 

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Awesome storm overall!  Even if it didn’t drop huge amounts (8-12+) it was impressive for a few reasons: 

1.  Snow falling with it absolutely stupid cold.  So much for the old saying, “It’s too cold to snow”.   
2.  Three different waves hit most of us.  
3.  As far as I can remember I’ve never been in a WS Warning while also having a WS Watch for another storm right behind it.  This is VERY rare.  
 

The only “negatives” I can think of are we didn’t get a foot and no blizzard warning.  That 8 year drought will continue, but who cares.   
 

Onto the next storm.  As JoMo (or someone) mentioned yesterday the NAM and RAP seemed to handle this best.  The HRRR not so much.  We’ll see what round 2 (or is it round 4?) says.  

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54 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Onto the next storm.  As JoMo (or someone) mentioned yesterday the NAM and RAP seemed to handle this best.  The HRRR not so much.  We’ll see what round 2 (or is it round 4?) says.  

Yeah, the NAM did a great job (rare). It showed the 3 waves of precip on the 12z yesterday that eventually happened. The HRRR did very poorly. 

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3 minutes ago, draco1188 said:

idk about everyone else, but here in Russellville, AR the 10:1 ratio on the NAM actually turned out to be more accurate than the kuchera ratio. Yesterday the NAM was showing 4.8" on the 18z and 5.1" on the 00z - currently we are sitting at about 4.25" and still coming down.

I wonder if the really fine grain nature of the snowfall prevented it from really taking advantage of higher ratios

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11 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Kuchera overdid it. I would look at QPF outputs and do a small multiplier. Seems like most snow ratios weren't off the charts like we thought they might be. Even then the next system looks significant.

The Wxbell Kuchera maps are obviously flawed. It wouldn't surprise me if it was purposely done in order to get people to post them to advertise or drive business to their site. Wichita was reporting 20:1 ratios yesterday.

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6 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

I wonder if the really fine grain nature of the snowfall prevented it from really taking advantage of higher ratios

Probably so. Thats how a majority of the snow has been here. There were a couple bursts of the larger flakes here and there but man, if it only could have been all like that lol Maybe Wednesday-Thursday *fingers crossed*

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4 minutes ago, JoMo said:

The Wxbell Kuchera maps are obviously flawed. It wouldn't surprise me if it was purposely done in order to get people to post them to advertise or drive business to their site. Wichita was reporting 20:1 ratios yesterday.

There was a tweet yesterday by them about how they found and fixed a bug in the Kuchera maps. Twitter is being slow for me right now so I can't pull it up.

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2 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Hard to say what we got here now, maybe I will declare it over again(being sarcastic lol) and we will all get another few inches! Seriously though, woke up and still lightly snowing. If I were to guess 5-6". This warning ends at noon then another watch is up for tuesday night onward for 4-10". Nice, bring it

Looks like we’re about to get a heavier band for the next hour or so.  

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5 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

I know, it was coming down pretty good 20 minutes ago. That fireball in the sky is desperately trying to peek through! Man its cold out there goodness!!! What did you guys get up that way, any guesses?

5” measured about an hour ago.  Maybe this last burst will push us to 6.  We’ll see.

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