Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, KC Storm said: Nice surprise band currently working through the KC area. We not get the brunt of these storms but its been a deep winter feel of late. Loving it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, jojo762 said: 00z NBM snow map continues to be a compromise between the more bullish ECMWF/GFS and the more bearish GEM. However, something appears to be awry with the aggregate SLRs in the model, as the QPF field would indicate a much more bullish snow solution -- more in line with the GFS/Euro, especially for the western half of Oklahoma. Interestingly there is a rather steep gradient in the QPF output on the NBM that essentially bifurcates Oklahoma and Kansas -- not exactly buying that. I noticed that, too. Seems squirrely to me. Also not buying the hard stop to the precip shield in E KS and MO. Think we'll see widespread QPF south of I-70 of greater than .4". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: 00z NBM snow map continues to be a compromise between the more bullish ECMWF/GFS and the more bearish GEM. However, something appears to be awry with the aggregate SLRs in the model, as the QPF field would indicate a much more bullish snow solution -- more in line with the GFS/Euro, especially for the western half of Oklahoma. Interestingly there is a rather steep gradient in the QPF output on the NBM that essentially bifurcates Oklahoma and Kansas -- not exactly buying that. That’s 15-16/1 for Tulsa which is in the lower range of expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: I noticed that, too. Seems squirrely to me. Also not buying the hard stop to the precip shield in E KS and MO. Think we'll see widespread QPF south of I-70 of greater than .4". The QPF that the NBM is shooting out is completely perplexing, as is the snow map. No answers for either, really. NBM is typically modestly reliable, given that it is a blend -- sorta like buying SPY instead of picking stocks, its hard'ish to beat the market. haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, westhope84 said: In what way is the NAM interesting? Sorry, I don’t have access to model runs. Someone posted a map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, JoMo said: Probably the NAM just being awful like usual. Exactly this. Its been bad all winter. Seen it initialize this past week alone being way too warm so you can throw it out from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, stormdragonwx said: Exactly this. Its been bad all winter. Seen it initialize this past week alone being way too warm so you can throw it out from the get go. The NAM and Euro have been hot garbage during this cold outbreak. Consistently 2-5 degrees too warm at any daypart w/in 72 hours and slow to catch up to the lower temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, stormdragonwx said: Exactly this. Its been bad all winter. Seen it initialize this past week alone being way too warm so you can throw it out from the get go. That's a good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I would trust the GFS/Euro and their ensembles still at this range. Could the NAM be right? Sure. Is it the most likely solution in the face of all the other model data right now? Not really. I will say that its solution is the way I have been worried we fail for the past couple days. It keys in more on the lead wave and doesn’t get it out of the way in time. The other models ride the knifes edge and just barely keep the lead wave weak enough for the trailing wave to amplify and take on a more neutral to negative tilt. Again, the NAM is unlikely to be right at this range, but I will be watch the trends on the other models regarding the lead wave very closely. That’s the key IMO. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, WhiteoutWX said: I would trust the ensembles still at this range. Could the NAM be right? Sure. Is it the most likely solution in the face of all the other model data right? Not really. I will say that it’s solution is the way I have been worried we fail for the past couple days. It keys in more on the lead wave and doesn’t get it out of the way in time. The other models ride the knifes edge and just barely keep the lead wave weak enough for the trailing wave to amplify and take on a more neutral to negative tilt. Again, the NAM is unlikely to be right at this range, but I will be watch the trends on the other modes regarding the lead wave very closely. That’s the key IMO. Good write up, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Icon bringing the goods to Missouri....but it’s the Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Looks like the lead wave is going to be missed by the 00z GFS by a whisker. Early on it was close though. That def needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 More of a north expansion to precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1st storm, GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12Z RDPS btw. Falling in line with the area of snow, just low on totals for many. But a big step in the right direction for the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Man its neat seeing the forum so active . How long has it been since we all discussed something like this!!? Im still not totally in but Im excited something good could happen for most of us who have had a crazy snow drought!! On a side note, keep getting these lil micro bursts of snow here...everything is covered again(not that anything melted). Even these lil frizzle events leave me smiling as its perfect snow, cold and and not melting & adds up quickly. Good luck to us all! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KC Storm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, StormChazer said: 12Z RDPS btw. Falling in line with the area of snow, just low on totals for many. But a big step in the right direction for the Canadian. Interesting trend tonight on the 0z guidance. Seems like a general trend toward away from a N/S gradient to one that is more SW to NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 A west trend on the second storm would be nice for a few runs. Amazing couple of storms for this area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, JoMo said: A west trend on the second storm would be nice for a few runs. Amazing couple of storms for this area. North trend with precip shield on storm 1 was noticeable on gfs tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 00z GEM more expansive with precip than 12z, but QPF totals still much less than GFS/Euro. Still, a step in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: North trend with precip shield on storm 1 was noticeable on gfs tonight Yeah it was. Bumped up totals up there around KC by a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokee Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 You all would get a kick out of this. The lost ogle is a satire website that pokes fun at certain things in the State of Oklahoma. https://www.thelostogle.com/2021/02/11/tulsa-weatherman-calls-out-okc-weathermen-for-scary-snowpocalyptic-weather-forecast/?fbclid=IwAR2FeLEb3GLhXyAFpbI1a1hjQ4NZTmMkv0ACD5qiuTiTqnodcudji8gdqJ0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Thats crazy, all the GFS ensembles still showing the area getting slammed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 00z Euro interacting with the lead wave more out to 54 hours. We'll see how this goes.... EDIT: Bit farther north this run. No big surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 15 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z Euro interacting with the lead wave more out to 54 hours. We'll see how this goes.... Does not seem like there was too much of an appreciable change to the end result. Still impressive snow totals area-wide, maybe slightly less bullish for some -- definitely less widespread 0.5" QPF than yesterday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Euro letting me go to bed happy tonight. Still looking good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 ^That still pretty much lines up with TSA's DSP page as it currently sits at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Do not believe this has been posted yet, but OUN's AFD this afternoon did an excellent job of summarizing the snow potential for many of us in the forum. Quote The storm system of interest, currently still located over the Pacific, will begin to impact our region as early as late Saturday night. An anomalously cold airmass will be in place ahead of this system which will allow for an all snow scenario, even across our traditionally warmer southeast counties. Models are in general agreement bringing a wide swath of 0.3" to as much as 0.8" of QPF to the area. The GFS and its ensembles have been in good agreement and have stayed toward the higher side of this range. The deterministic ECM agrees with the GFS and GEFS, but is a bit of a high outlier within its ensembles. GEM/NAM appear more progressive and are drier outliers at this stage, with 0.1-0.3" QPF. All this to say, there is still some uncertainty in exactly how much snow will fall, but given snow to liquid ratios of 15:1 to perhaps greater than 20:1 at times during this event, it won`t take a ton of moisture to produce significant snow totals. We are taking a middle of the road approach for now, with 0.4-0.5" of QPF, leading to widespread snow totals of 6-8", locally up to 10", with highest amounts focused across northwest OK where ratios are highest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, stormdragonwx said: ^That still pretty much lines up with TSA's DSP page as it currently sits at this time. That's for both systems though, not just the first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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