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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


JoMo
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9 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Not looking forward to AWFUL roads again. The roads on Sunday/Monday were brutal across most of the metro, even in Johnson County which typically does a great job plowing and keeping roads clear.

I sub and we lost Mon and Tues to virtual. The roads were awful. 

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Just now, draco1188 said:

Long time lurker and was just curious on some perspective.. if this gets a more neutral position rather than the positive tilt, will this result in a greater chance of a dry slot forming? Or is a dry slot something that could happen with either situation?

Possible but it really depends on the track. If the storm got a bit too far west given the trough turning earlier its possible but I wouldn't sweat it just yet. You looking pretty good down that way! 

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2 minutes ago, KC Storm said:

Possible but it really depends on the track. If the storm got a bit too far west given the trough turning earlier its possible but I wouldn't sweat it just yet. You looking pretty good down that way! 

Man, I really hope so! I haven't seen a good snow here since Christmas 2012. 

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Continuing to snow lightly here, ground is petty well covered. With expected temps and could cover, I wouldn't be surprised if this remains on the ground until the potential big storm starts. It would be nice to finally have an event where half of the snow doesn't melt on contact. 

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Just now, KC Storm said:

Not to be a downer but from living through so many east coast storms just a heads up on the Kuchie maps. They are fun but they are normally way over done. I hope it is right though.

I don’t fundamentally disagree with your statement.  However, this will be happening with very cold temps so I would say it’s more plausible than normal.  In a typical situation I don’t look at Kuchera ever. 

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2 minutes ago, KC Storm said:

Not to be a downer but from living through so many east coast storms just a heads up on the Kuchie maps. They are fun but they are normally way over done. I hope it is right though.

I think the weatherbell Kuchera map is way overdone. I'm not sure why it is always so much higher than the one at pivotal weather. 

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1 minute ago, KC Storm said:

Not to be a downer but from living through so many east coast storms just a heads up on the Kuchie maps. They are fun but they are normally way over done. I hope it is right though.

I am to an east coaster and have been burned...D.C. area. Grain of salt with those maps. But I hope it happens, I think it’s a win getting half of that map

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4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I am to an east coaster and have been burned...D.C. area. Grain of salt with those maps. But I hope it happens, I think it’s a win getting half of that map

Same, grew up in south Jersey most of my life. Been burnt but those were lil stove burns compared to the forest fire burns I have experienced in this place lol. Most of my memories are from the 80's-90's and big ole noreasters dumping tons of snow at once. Glad I got to witness that type of thing in my time!

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Everyone is right that under normal circumstances Kuchera SLRs do fairly poor, and almost always overestimate snowfall. But we are talking about 15:1 to potentially 25:1 SLRs for most people here basing off current temp forecasts. In this situation I don't think the Kuchera snowfall numbers are signifcantly off, espeically on Pivotal weather -- WxBell seems a hair higher for whatever reason.

For anyone with a distrust of the Kuchera snow outputs, just manually multiply QPFs by 15 or 20 or 25 to give you a rough idea of what we could be looking at (its pretty similar to what is being shown).

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9 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

This map looks completely different than the Pivotal Kuchera map.  And by a lot.  Pivotal shows the heaviest amounts up through Central Ark and 10” for OKC.  How are the two off by so much?  

You have a sub to pivotalweather? Euro Kuchera is only available with sub. The numbers are off though, so I'm not sure if Pivotals or Weatherbell's algorithm is off. 

 

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1 minute ago, JoMo said:

You have a sub to pivotalweather? Euro Kuchera is only available with sub. The numbers are off though, so I'm not sure if Pivotals or Weatherbell's algorithm is off. 

 

That’s right!  Totally forgot that.  No, I don’t have a subscription.  That explains a majority of it.  I like the WB map much better anyway!  

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