Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


JoMo
 Share

Recommended Posts

18 hours ago, The Waterboy said:

Every year when we start to hear rumors of sudden strat warming I tell myself winter is over.  It almost never works out right.  Maybe I only remember when they bust but that seems to be the way more common outcome.  

Well, usually it's the 'last gasp' that it might happen. But this year, the warming did happen. The vortex did split.  Arctic air did dump, on the other side of the world though. The vortex itself  is expected to remain weaker and not recover. Typically it takes 2 weeks for the effects to play out. It's possible it has no effect on the weather here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting scenario for KC on Monday as it appears we *might* end up in the "screw zone" for this winter storm.

Something that makes this forecast particularly challenging is the sharp gradient between double-digit snow potential and near-zero snow potential.

Additionally, 12z guidance was split between two camps. One camp (mostly global models) has cold air shunted up a bit further north of the city, while most 12z hi-res guidance has cold air, and thus the freezing-line, much further south by 12z Monday. Most global models have KC in the mid/upper 30s range, while most hi-res guidance is colder -- more so in the 29-32 range. If hi-res guidance is sniffing something out that the globals are not seeing, we could have a fairly high-impact winter storm on our hands for most of the metro area, and almost certainly for areas north of I-70.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jojo762 said:

Interesting scenario for KC on Monday as it appears we *might* end up in the "screw zone" for this winter storm.

Something that makes this forecast particularly challenging is the sharp gradient between double-digit snow potential and near-zero snow potential.

Additionally, 12z guidance was split between two camps. One camp (mostly global models) has cold air shunted up a bit further north of the city, while most 12z hi-res guidance has cold air, and thus the freezing-line, much further south by 12z Monday. Most global models have KC in the mid/upper 30s range, while most hi-res guidance is colder -- more so in the 29-32 range. If hi-res guidance is sniffing something out that the globals are not seeing, we could have a fairly high-impact winter storm on our hands for most of the metro area, and almost certainly for areas north of I-70.

Good insight, my feelings is that the cold will overperform, giving KC proper a 4+ inch storm. Areas further North of town will do very well.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was noticing today the HRRR has come into range for Wednesday's winter weather potential. While most other models (save for the Canadian) have been showing this as a mostly non-event, the HRRR just went bonkers in comparison showing 3-5" totals. I was watching the Canadian for the past few days and it was showing some potential for accumulating snow too. (1-3").

We will just have to watch for trends. This might surprise us. I know the Canadian has been doing pretty good this season.

HRRRSGP_prec_snow_048.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nothing like 10 ft of snow in the Sierra

Detailed forecast for

West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada

Tonight
Snow showers. Windy. Lows 11 to 26 higher elevations... 25 to 31 lower elevations. Snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches. Prevailing south winds 15 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph increasing to 55 mph after midnight.
Wednesday
Heavy snow showers. Windy. Highs 22 to 36. Snow accumulation of 8 to 14 inches lower elevations...except 22 to 28 inches higher elevations. Prevailing south winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to around 60 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 45 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Heavy snow showers and heavy rain showers. Breezy. Lows 18 to 33 higher elevations...around 33 lower elevations. Snow accumulation of 4 to 10 inches lower elevations...except 24 to 30 inches higher elevations. Snow level 4500 feet. Prevailing south winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph.
Thursday
Heavy snow showers and heavy rain showers. Not as cold. Highs 25 to 40 higher elevations...35 to 43 lower elevations. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches lower elevations... Except 17 to 23 inches higher elevations. Snow level 4500 feet. Prevailing south winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.
Thursday Night
Rain and snow showers. Lows 16 to 31 higher elevations...29 to 37 lower elevations. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch lower elevations...except 7 to 13 inches higher elevations. Snow level 4500 feet. Prevailing south winds 5 to 15 mph.
Friday
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the 12z GFS is back to bringing the Arctic down in the longer range, quicker this run. 

Next interesting system for us appears to be around Feb 4th-6th depending on a lot of factors. 

Interesting to see both the 12z GFS and 12z GEM with the arctic air this time.

gfs_T2m_us_41.png

 

 

gem_T2m_us_41.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/27/2021 at 6:47 PM, MoWeatherguy said:

Bout damn time.   Hopefully not another false alarm.  Maybe this is gonna be a bookend winter. 

Man I was getting rdy to say, Im about rdy for spring lol! Nah too early for that, it really hasn't been that cold at all this winter! Crazyness. We broke the ole snow drought but I would like to see one good 5"+ cold fluffy snow. I'm happy it was cold on xmas eve and xmas day though, that was really awesome

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...