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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


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5 minutes ago, OKTWISTER said:

NWS Tulsa holding strong on little freezing precipitation in the Tulsa Metro proper. However the Winter Storm Warning was moved east and Osage and Pawnee counties added and Washington, Nowata and Craig counties added for Winter Weather Advisory. 

 

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One thing graphics like this reassure me is the need for polygon based winter products like we do with severe weather. Places like Sand Springs aren't in the advisory despite being further west than others in the advisory. 

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1 minute ago, Wx 24/7 said:

One thing graphics like this reassure me is the need for polygon based winter products like we do with severe weather. Places like Sand Springs aren't in the advisory despite being further west than others in the advisory. 

I agree and we know the line will be much different than the advisory area. 

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3 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

One thing graphics like this reassure me is the need for polygon based winter products like we do with severe weather. Places like Sand Springs aren't in the advisory despite being further west than others in the advisory. 

100% this. What's the criteria anyhow? Greater than 1/2 the county to be included? 1/3? It's very unclear and doesn't paint a proper picture.

What if I end up, in Collinsville, getting an ice storm while Bixby skirts by with cold rain? If I wasn't weather savvy, I would be surprised because there was no advisory or warning due to the current format.

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Just now, StormChazer said:

100% this. What's the criteria anyhow? Greater than 1/2 the county to be included? 1/3? It's very unclear and doesn't paint a proper picture.

What if I end up, in Collinsville, getting an ice storm while Bixby skirts by with cold rain? If I wasn't weather savvy, I would be surprised because there was no advisory or warning due to the current format.

Because you are in Collinsville I expect rain from Owasso to Collinsville and 3-6 inches of snow in Bixby........

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2 hours ago, RocketWX said:

I hear you rockchalk. I live just southeast of Wichita right on the Sedgwick Butler county line and it feels like it's been forever since we've had a snow that completely covered the grass.  This has been a fascinating storm to track and I'm hoping it snaps that streak. A few things I'm watching: Are the Hi Res models showing that eastward shift of qpf on to something? How quick will the changeover to snow occur? I still think there is merit to a heavy band of snow developing somewhere in this area that could over achieve and drop 6"+ even though we are only in a Winter Weather Advisory. 

I am right there with you on all those points. One other question I’ll throw in is how far west does the main deformation precip shield get. I have a hard time buying the razor thin cut off that some are showing, but that may just be wishful thinking. 

The latest model runs give me even more pause that the streak won’t end tomorrow, but it’s time to nowcast this out and see how it evolves. 

Good luck and happy new year to all! We survived 2020.

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