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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


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Just now, StormChazer said:

Tell you what, if the HRRR verifies I’ll have been right to put my money on the Canadian, haha.

 

Also, Tulsa will be caught off guard because they’ve been saying cold rain for a couple days now on the news.

Pretty much everyone would be caught of guard I think. Glad I decided to change my major from meteorology to accounting lol 

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Interesting note from NWS Norman regarding the 12z model initializations. FWIW, the 21z RAP edged west with the main precip shield, while the 18z Euro maintained.

The complicating factor with this forecast is that for precipitation
amounts and types with the cyclone, the models widely diverge in
solutions and the impacts that result from the solutions. In
discussions with WPC, the GFS/NAM 12z initialization had a 30 meter
initialization error in the 500mb height fields, which should have a
sharper upper-level trough. For this forecast more weight was put
towards the ECMWF solution for precipitation location and type,
however the forecast for precipitation type/impacts could
drastically change with any shifts in path of the cyclone.
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3 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

So while we are eagerly awaiting the 00z model runs, which site(s) do you all use for your model data? Didn't know what the pros/cons are.

I use pivotal. I was using College of Dupage before pivotal 

 

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30 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

Interesting note from NWS Norman regarding the 12z model initializations. FWIW, the 21z RAP edged west with the main precip shield, while the 18z Euro maintained.


The complicating factor with this forecast is that for precipitation
amounts and types with the cyclone, the models widely diverge in
solutions and the impacts that result from the solutions. In
discussions with WPC, the GFS/NAM 12z initialization had a 30 meter
initialization error in the 500mb height fields, which should have a
sharper upper-level trough. For this forecast more weight was put
towards the ECMWF solution for precipitation location and type,
however the forecast for precipitation type/impacts could
drastically change with any shifts in path of the cyclone.

Does “sharper upper level trough” mean further west?   I’m not sure how to interpret that.  

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