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MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion


JoMo
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Up to 2" as far east as Tulsa tomorrow.

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241 PM CST Mon Dec 14 2020

...Additional Snowfall Forecast Tuesday...

OKZ054-059-060-064>066-151000-
/O.NEW.KTSA.WW.Y.0009.201215T1700Z-201216T0300Z/
Osage-Pawnee-Tulsa-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-
Including the cities of Pawhuska, Pawnee, Tulsa, Sapulpa, Okemah,
and Okmulgee
241 PM CST Mon Dec 14 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Light to moderate snow is expected to push into northeast
  Oklahoma mid to late morning Tuesday and continue into Tuesday
  evening as a low pressure system moves eastward through the
  region. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches will be
  possible.

 

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I'm reviving this statistical analysis I did last season to highlight how insane the snow drought here in NE OK was for those 5 seasons, but have updated it to reflect the past few days.
I took the total snowfall from every season in 5 year intervals dating back to 1950.
1950/1951 - 1954/1955- 48.3 in
1955/1956 - 1959/1960- 64 in
1960/1961 - 1964/1965- 32.4 in
1965/1966 - 1969/1970- 60.6 in
1970/1971 - 1974/1975- 37.6 in
1975/1976 - 1979/1980- 48.2 in
1980/1981 - 1984/1985- 34 in
1985/1986 - 1989/1990- 57.6 in
1990/1991 - 1994/1995- 41.7 in
1995/1996 - 1999/2000- 37.2 in
2000/2001 - 2004/2005- 55.1 in
2005/2006 - 2009/2010- 61 in
2010/2011 - 2014/2015- 52.4 in
2015/2016 - 2019/2020- 11.8 in
2020/2021- Present- 5.2 in
 
In just a matter of 3 days, we had almost half as much snow as we did in the past 5 seasons combined!
We average 45.85 inches every 5 seasons, so before the crazy snow drought, we were overperforming the previous 15 years!
Now that we got the monkey off our back, I'm confident in a return to normal from here on out, but we shall see!
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32 minutes ago, JoMo said:

No dice on the 12z GFS and the 12z ICON changed back to the GFS'ish look. Canadian went more southern this run though. Hmm.

There was a comment in one of the other forums about the 12z NAM bringing the storm onshore further south into Central CA.  Not sure if that matters any at this point but worth noting.   
It seems like there are still a handful of different possible scenarios on the table.  
Would like to see the 12zEuro continue its trend from 00z. 

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