Fall/Winter 2020/21 Banter Thread

[Spartman]

33 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I just hope that if this is a warm winter, we dont get the cold and 1” slop events in April again. 2 years in a row of that now.

Or end up with single-digit snowfall totals heading into March. Last January tied for the 7th least snowiest January on record with 1908 of only 0.9 inches. A few events last February saved the season from ending up with single-digit snowfall totals.

[Hoosier]

On 12/12/2020 at 5:13 PM, Hoosier said:

Here are the lowest snow totals for Chicago through December 20.  Currently at 0.7" and given how the upcoming week+ looks, there's a good chance 2020 will remain on this list.

Can ignore 1996.  Some missing data and I know that there happened to be accumulating snow during that time.  So the real record for least snow through Dec 20 is 0.2"

 

Still going to be at 0.7" through 12/20.

So, excluding 1996 for reason stated above, here are the years with 1" or less through 12/20 and the final snowfall total.  Average annual snowfall at ORD is just over 36", so lots of clunkers on the list.  While that might be favored as an outcome, it is not assured.  1998-99 was obviously helped out big time by the huge January 1999 storm.  Had that storm not occurred, the final total would have been 29.3" instead of 50.9"

 

2012-13:  30.1"  (February:  16.1")

1998-99:  50.9"  (January:  29.6")

1993-94:  41.8"  (February:  26.2")

1938-39:  33.9"  (January:  24.7")

1943-44:  24.0"  (February:  12.5")

1912-13:  19.0"  (March:  7.1")

1918-19:  28.8"  (March:  11.0")

1990-91:  23.5"  (January:  11.1")

2001-02:  31.1"  (January:  15.5")

1923-24:  27.6"  (March:  11.9")

1984-85:  39.1"  (January:  18.9")

1939-40:  31.0"  (February:  12.9")

2003-04:  24.8"  (January:  14.6")

 

[luckyweather]

Took me a while to get the science dialed in, I’ve spent the last 3 months laying down mostly ice, but I finally got it a few weeks ago and with last weeks cold was able to lay down a nice base with my homemade snow gun. The past few days are eating into it, but it looks to hold on for the most part until Christmas when the cold should give me a chance to refresh. Can’t just rely on ma nature for the fz precip.

Pic is of some little jumps in the “terrain park” the kids have been jamming on.

[Cary67]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Still going to be at 0.7" through 12/20.

So, excluding 1996 for reason stated above, here are the years with 1" or less through 12/20 and the final snowfall total.  Average annual snowfall at ORD is just over 36", so lots of clunkers on the list.  While that might be favored as an outcome, it is not assured.  1998-99 was obviously helped out big time by the huge January 1999 storm.  Had that storm not occurred, the final total would have been 29.3" instead of 50.9"

 

2012-13:  30.1"

1998-99:  50.9"

1993-94:  41.8"

1938-39:  33.9"

1943-44:  24.0"

1912-13:  19.0"

1918-19:  28.8"

1990-91:  23.5"

2001-02:  31.1"

1923-24:  27.6"

1984-85:  39.1"

1939-40:  31.0"

2003-04:  24.8"

 

Heavily favored to be less than 36". Only 2 out of 13 yrs finished higher than average if you throw out the blizzard of 1999. Especially since those types of storms hit about once in 15yrs. Its almost a given this year will be below normal as we close out 1/3 of meteorological winter being blanked

[Malacka11]

I wonder what it'd be like to receive the remaining 35 inches and some change at once

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

The Christmas Eve thread in a nutshell:

https://youtu.be/3KquFZYi6L0

[mimillman]

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

I wonder what it'd be like to receive the remaining 35 inches and some change at once

I’d be down to get that and nothing else the rest of the season at this point 

[Hoosier]

53 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I’d be down to get that and nothing else the rest of the season at this point 

Went back and added the snowiest month for each of those seasons.

About half the time, more than half of the total snowfall came in 1 month.  

[Cary67]

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Went back and added the snowiest month for each of those seasons.

About half the time, more than half of the total snowfall came in 1 month.  

Its that window of a few weeks that gives you most of your snow

[RCNYILWX]

Glass half empty view... It just doesn't want to snow here and we're a lock for BN snowfall. This week is very frustrating. Aside from a few model runs that drew everyone in, was never really that excited about big snow for the Christmas Eve threat, just as something thread the needle that could work out if everything came together right. Figured that we could meh our way to an inch or two but that's seemingly impossible now. Even the clipper warm advection wing this morning was a total fail.

Glass half full view... Still have plenty of time left and that example of 1998-99 and a few other examples on Hoosier's list. 2012-13 was an interesting one too, because we had several near misses that winter that could've resulted in a much different outcome. The northern tier counties actually ended up rallying for a well AN snowfall winter.

Another example not on Hoosier's list: 2014-15. November was cold and had some snow but only a T in December, tied with 2 other winters for least snowy December. Seemed like getting to AN that year was less likely but of course GHD II happened. Ya never know.

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[michsnowfreak]

38 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Glass half empty view... It just doesn't want to snow here and we're a lock for BN snowfall. This week is very frustrating. Aside from a few model runs that drew everyone in, was never really that excited about big snow for the Christmas Eve threat, just as something thread the needle that could work out if everything came together right. Figured that we could meh our way to an inch or two but that's seemingly impossible now. Even the clipper warm advection wing this morning was a total fail.

Glass half full view... Still have plenty of time left and that example of 1998-99 and a few other examples on Hoosier's list. 2012-13 was an interesting one too, because we had several near misses that winter that could've resulted in a much different outcome. The northern tier counties actually ended up rallying for a well AN snowfall winter.

Another example not on Hoosier's list: 2014-15. November was cold and had some snow but only a T in December, tied with 2 other winters for least snowy December. Seemed like getting to AN that year was less likely but of course GHD II happened. Ya never know.

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 I know it has been a frustrating start in Chicago and I like that you looked it both views. There are plenty of examples where there was good Winter after the New Year despite hardly any before the New Year. Today is only the 1st official day of Winter.

[Snowstorms]

17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I know it has been a frustrating start in Chicago and I like that you looked it both views. There are plenty of examples where there was good Winter after the New Year despite hardly any before the New Year. Today is only the 1st official day of Winter.

I think what's most frustrating is losing December again. 3rd warm December in a row and our 7th since 2010.  That's just straight up ridiculous. Would be nice to get some good snowy cold Decembers again and not have to continually rely on January or February for snow. It's been years since we've seen a nice widespread March snowstorm as well. Seems like winters are continually being condensed into 2 months and it's becoming really frustrating. Losing December as a snow lover hurts, it's the worst. 

[cyclone77]

8 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I think what's most frustrating is losing December again. 3rd warm December in a row and our 7th since 2010.  That's just straight up ridiculous. Would be nice to get some good snowy cold Decembers again and not have to continually rely on March or April for snow. It's been years since we've seen a nice widespread March snowstorm as well. Seems like winters are continually being condensed into 2 months and it's becoming really frustrating. Losing December as a snow lover hurts, it's the worst. 

FYP. 

[Hoosier]

With ORD still stuck on 0.7" due to the clipper fail this morning that RC alluded to and prospects diminishing for much in the way of measurable snow in time for Christmas, now it's really starting to get "fun" in terms of futility for Chicago.  

First image is least snow through Christmas day and the second image is least snow through Dec 31.  We'll see if we can get something before the 31st to get off of that list.

Again, ignore 1996.

 

[michsnowfreak]

40 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I think what's most frustrating is losing December again. 3rd warm December in a row and our 7th since 2010.  That's just straight up ridiculous. Would be nice to get some good snowy cold Decembers again and not have to continually rely on January or February for snow. It's been years since we've seen a nice widespread March snowstorm as well. Seems like winters are continually being condensed into 2 months and it's becoming really frustrating. Losing December as a snow lover hurts, it's the worst. 

We had great December's in 16 and 17 But the 2 decembers on each side of it were terrible. This December at least we've had snow here but its not been the best.  We are in a very odd pattern lately of early and late season cold and snow, with one of the Winter months being not so wintry.  It's frustrating. But also snowlovers in much of the midwest were very spoiled 2007-2015. Thats why they say karma is a bitch. Its very cool to see these out of season snowfalls but id gladly give them up if we could get back on track lol. We had a March storm in 2017 and 2018, and of course March 15 had deep snow. So id say  over the past decade Dec has been the least wintry month of DJFM. Going a step farther, and this requires subjective thinking, id say that relative to normal, from NDJFMA December has been the worst.  Obviously Dec has been colder and snowier at face value that November and April, im talking relative to normal. If anything the winter seems to be getting longer with a remission at some point during what should be the heart of winter.

[Snowstorms]

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

We had great December's in 16 and 17 But the 2 decembers on each side of it were terrible. This December at least we've had snow here but its not been the best.  We are in a very odd pattern lately of early and late season cold and snow, with one of the Winter months being not so wintry.  It's frustrating. But also snowlovers in much of the midwest were very spoiled 2007-2015. Thats why they say karma is a bitch. Its very cool to see these out of season snowfalls but id gladly give them up if we could get back on track lol. We had a March storm in 2017 and 2018, and of course March 15 had deep snow. So id say  over the past decade Dec has been the least wintry month of DJFM. Going a step farther, and this requires subjective thinking, id say that relative to normal, from NDJFMA December has been the worst.  Obviously Dec has been colder and snowier at face value that November and April, im talking relative to normal.

 

Solid points. December 2016 wasn't really all that cold tbh. Only December 2013 and 2017 were well rounded Decembers of late. I love a good November snowstorm but to take that followed by a snowless December? Nah. November snow and cold barely last more than a few days and the excitement of it dies out quick. We did get spoiled yes, but this stretch we are going through right now is equally comparable. February has been exceptional over the past 20 years locally. Our February average since 2000 is close to 14" lol. But similarly, other months especially Dec, Jan and Mar have taken a big hit. We got shit in March 2017 and 2018 so lucky you. March 2014 was our last above average month and before that March 2011. Tired of these half ass winters we keep getting.

[michsnowfreak]

13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Solid points. December 2016 wasn't really all that cold tbh. Only December 2013 and 2017 were well rounded Decembers of late. I love a good November snowstorm but to take that followed by a snowless December? Nah. November snow and cold barely last more than a few days and the excitement of it dies out quick. We did get spoiled yes, but this stretch we are going through right now is equally comparable. February has been exceptional over the past 20 years locally. Our February average since 2000 is close to 14" lol. But similarly, other months especially Dec, Jan and Mar have taken a big hit. We got shit in March 2017 and 2018 so lucky you. March 2014 was our last above average month and before that March 2011. Tired of these half ass winters we keep getting.

February is where it is at. Our average since 2000 has been 14.7" and since 2010 has been 18.0".  Despite the pattern of the past few years there is no question that increasing snowfall in January and February, especially February, is what has been responsible for the 2010s being our snowiest decade on record. Lean snow years from the 1930s-60s really brought the avg down. 

2010s vs 20th century 

Nov- 2.9 vs 2.8

Dec- 8.5 vs 8.6

Jan- 14.3 vs 10.4

Feb- 18.3 vs 9.0

Mar- 5.0 vs 6.7

Apr- 0.9 vs 1.5

ssn- 49.9 vs 39.1

 

Is Toronto above avg to date?

[vortex]

49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

With ORD still stuck on 0.7" due to the clipper fail this morning that RC alluded to and prospects diminishing for much in the way of measurable snow in time for Christmas, now it's really starting to get "fun" in terms of futility for Chicago.  

First image is least snow through Christmas day and the second image is least snow through Dec 31.  We'll see if we can get something before the 31st to get off of that list.

Again, ignore 1996.

 

This year’s .7 is the exact same amount as 1998.   Be nice for a 1999 redo. 
I remember the 99 blizzard was forecast for a week ahead.  

[A-L-E-K]

zzzzzzzzz

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, vortex said:

This year’s .7 is the exact same amount as 1998.   Be nice for a 1999 redo. 
I remember the 99 blizzard was forecast for a week ahead.  

I remember that too! I remember they were talking about it all week.

[kevlon62]

Let's just get on with the severe season then.

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[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, kevlon62 said:

Let's just get on with the severe season then.

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only 4-5 months to go

[kevlon62]

only 4-5 months to go

Let's brew something up in like two weeks.

https://www.weather.gov/lot/07Jan2008_tornado

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[cyclone77]

If it ain't gonna snow I'm ready to mow.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, vortex said:

This year’s .7 is the exact same amount as 1998.   Be nice for a 1999 redo. 
I remember the 99 blizzard was forecast for a week ahead.  

Yeah, the hype machine was in full effect.  I remember TWC even broke out "heavy snow" on their outlook maps a few days in advance, which was something rarely seen.

[Hoosier]

Another futility mark to watch for Chicago...

There has been no measurable snow since November 25.  There have only been 2 years without measurable snow between November 25 and December 25 -- 1894 and 1912. 

Not sure if Chicago can make it through Christmas day with no measurable snow, but even if you set the cutoff at 0.5", only a dozen years (out of about 135 years) met that criteria.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, the hype machine was in full effect.  I remember TWC even broke out "heavy snow" on their outlook maps a few days in advance, which was something rarely seen.

When does that happen anymore in this sub, for winter or severe? A big dog is forecast for days AND it actually pans out as such.

[vortex]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, the hype machine was in full effect.  I remember TWC even broke out "heavy snow" on their outlook maps a few days in advance, which was something rarely seen.

Definitely. Even Jerry Taft was somewhat onboard.  Lol.  
The weird thing I remember the day before the storm, was the crazy amount of Geese flying south all day.   Never seen anything like that to this day.   Even they knew it was coming.  
 

[Powerball]

29 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

When does that happen anymore in this sub, for winter or severe? A big dog is forecast for days AND it actually pans out as such.

GHD 2011 was the last time there was a major snowstorm that held serve for an entire week. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, vortex said:

Definitely. Even Jerry Taft was somewhat onboard.  Lol.  
The weird thing I remember the day before the storm, was the crazy amount of Geese flying south all day.   Never seen anything like that to this day.   Even they knew it was coming.  
 

I remember Skilling was on vacation when it happened.  Was disappointing because I wanted to see him cover it.  

The way I remember it, I think there was some uncertainty in the days leading up about whether Chicago proper would get into the highest band or if it was going to be just south of the city.  Obviously we know how that turned out with ORD clocking in with 21.6"