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hlcater

Major Hurricane Delta

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

Yeah but sub 900?

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anything's on the table now-it had a good environment in front of it the next 48 hrs outside of the brief trek over land.

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

Yeah but sub 900?

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If the eye closes, clears and there isn’t an EWRC, it may be possible. Gotta keep in mind we’ve got a -80 ring and we’re already at 140/956 even with the core being a mess.

 

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FWIW the energy from fusion due to lighting is orders of magnitude lower than that of the storm as a whole and has no effect on strengthening. It’s a symptom of strengthening and microphysics processes, not a cause.

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I'm shocked Jim said that. Pretty ballsy. Time and organization are working against something that low. Shocked how strong it is given overall satellite presentation. The CDO is impressive though. Getting more symmetrical and wrapping and VERY cold cloud tops

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Another reminder, MIMIC doesn’t update without additional polar satellite passes. With a storm that’s rapidly evolving (like this) and with the latest pass being 8 hours ago, it’s useless.

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140mph now. So obviously still undergoing rapid intensification. Pressure actually came up though which is odd
Unless that 4nm eye grew, which would bump the pressure up

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3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

How long til next recon?

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looks like mission 5 is in the air and en route so....

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3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Unless that 4nm eye grew, which would bump the pressure up

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That's a valid point. Not often you see a pressure rise correspond with a decent uptick in winds

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That shear is probably why the core is messy. Per GFS soundings, shear decreases again tonight and through landfall. Landfall is ~12z tomorrow so we've got one more diurnal max to really make it. First landfall call for me is 916mb/145kt.

 

EDIT: I'll add the core being messy now is bad news for cancun. We won't get an EWRC with a messy core. 

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That's a valid point. Not often you see a pressure rise correspond with a decent uptick in winds
Laura did, when it had that merger EWRC, then when it completed the pressure tanked

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That shear is probably why the core is messy. Per GFS soundings, shear decreases again tonight and through landfall. Landfall is ~12z tomorrow so we've got one more diurnal max to really make it. First landfall call for me is 916mb/145kt.
 
EDIT: I'll add the core being messy now is bad news for cancun. We won't get an EWRC with a messy core. 
12z tomorrow is what, 8am?

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2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Hah! Got blocked for calling him out on Delta going sub-9006ed4c524e92e18661dadf79797dd1d5d.jpg

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this is why I leave Twitter to the twits.

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2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Hah! Got blocked for calling him out on Delta going sub-9006ed4c524e92e18661dadf79797dd1d5d.jpg

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He’s on the Mount Rushmore of chasing and could give two shits about your opinion

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Why are we shitting on Jim Edds lol. The dude knows more about hurricanes than the vast majority of us. 

Not only that, the call wasn't even that bullish. Bullish for sure but not impossible.

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Wow! Even tropical storm force winds extend no further than 90 mi from Delta's center! Hurricane force is only 40 mi from the eye. 

EDIT: Gilbert hit Cancun as Cat 5 in September 1988 & had a tiny eye too. I'm not saying that Delta will reach 185 mph with a 888 mb pressure, but there are obviously some similarities. 

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36 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Why are we shitting on Jim Edds lol. The dude knows more about hurricanes than the vast majority of us. 

Not only that, the call wasn't even that bullish. Bullish for sure but not impossible.

Dude doesn’t even know when 12z is but thinks he knows more than Jim Edds 

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9 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Dude doesn’t even know when 12z is but thinks he knows more than Jim Edds 

Regardless of how much you think Jim Edds knows, a sub-900 hPa "call" is simply not based on science.  Yes it is possible, but probably unlikely given (1) the relative infrequence of such events, and (2) the moderate shear currently affecting the system (going sub-900 requires pristine conditions).  

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20 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

Wow! Even tropical storm force winds extend no further than 90 mi from Delta's center! Hurricane force is only 40 mi from the eye. 

EDIT: Gilbert hit Cancun as Cat 5 in September 1988 & had a tiny eye too. I'm not saying that Delta will reach 185 mph with a 888 mb pressure, but they're are obviously some similarities. 

here's a pic of gilbert, you're right-very compact.   Went right into Cozumel as a 5

Gilbert 1988-09-13 2100Z.png

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

here's a pic of gilbert, you're right-very compact.   Went right into Cozumel as a 5

Gilbert 1988-09-13 2100Z.png

The outer circulation of gilbert was clearly much larger.  Also, gilbert was undergoing an ERC when it made landfall, so probably had a much larger RMW at that point.

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