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Major Hurricane Delta


hlcater
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New Iberia/Arcadiana Regional Airport has been reporting 80+ mph gusts at the top of the hour for three straight hours now, including two without any precipitation. Other locations have also reported hurricane force gusts without any precipitation.

This half-a-cane has a transport mechanism for pockets of upper level winds to reach the ground even without any precip. 

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22 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

New Iberia/Arcadiana Regional Airport has been reporting 80+ mph gusts at the top of the hour for three straight hours now, including two without any precipitation. Other locations have also reported hurricane force gusts without any precipitation.

This half-a-cane has a transport mechanism for pockets of upper level winds to reach the ground even without any precip. 

There's definitely still strong winds in the back half of it, but I wonder if there's any kind of "eyewall" left to really bring the winds down. I remember the second half of Irene which was eaten away from dry air still having some strong wind but it not lasting long, and the sun being out with 50-60mph wind still. Apparently the same happened with Gloria up here. 

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28 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

New Iberia/Arcadiana Regional Airport has been reporting 80+ mph gusts at the top of the hour for three straight hours now, including two without any precipitation. Other locations have also reported hurricane force gusts without any precipitation.

This half-a-cane has a transport mechanism for pockets of upper level winds to reach the ground even without any precip. 

Subsidence? Turbulence? Overturning of the pbl as it switches to the nocturnal scheme? Dry microbursts driven by ingest of dry air? Could also be similar to other hurricanes where the segment over water maintains some intensity for a bit even when the center has moved inland. You've also got strong mid level and upper level winds, which at this point could play a role both in upper level mass transport and in the vertical wind currents in the storm. Not really sure which of those it is, if any, just sort of thinking out loud. Your basic physics for this requires sinking air to transport the momentum/energy from the 925-850mb layer to the surface, so just thinking of what would do that without precip. 

 

MU

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3 hours ago, VortAmplifier said:

HWRF on hints of 130kt equivalent winds ; 12km NAM not so bad gave me estimate on 120kt+ ; GFS something is wrong w/ this model , Cancun really bad performance ; GFS kind of accurate on rainfall in the range 8-10in up to 12in over the storm surge area ; 32km NAM not so bad as well hints on those strong winds 130kt+ ; breaking poles on equivalents of 200MPH over a short burst of time just to break the pole and leave a whole area w/ no power (this ideas on overall inspection of the model output)

Something to observe on the next severe weather (Severe Thunderstorm Warnings) events are wind gusts on IWM (NAM), 850mb winds, 10m winds over a line of thunderstorms coming from PA ; Trenton... I want to see what high resolution NAM does on these features... Basically Tropical Tidbits + IWM combo.

HWRF wins on this one... NAM is pushing (better) but I think HWRF is the best on this one...

The euro I thought was quite good on placement early on, no? It ended up correcting East a bit, but was much closer originally than other models.

It was off on intensity in the Caribs but performed decently once in the GOM

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5 hours ago, hlcater said:

I remember when people, including myself, thought this was gonna rip a hole in space-time in the W Carib. Fun times.

Well the models will have a difficult time with scientific predictions when based on actual meteorological data and precise formulas when a secret man-made influence is peeing on the eye walls. Poor computers, trying their best to make sense of what went wrong. Then they have to reprogram everything they learned not counting for a magical WTF which ultimately makes the models off-base putting many lives in risk.

I know, this post will disappear from this thread quickly. ;)

As a side adventure I may poke around and investigate the covert weather modification idea. The money trail is where to start, dozens of names have been thrown into the mix over the past decade or two. May be some members on this forum who know but cannot speak. Don't be afraid. I'll be cautious what I share until there is something to mention, or will say I have found nothing at all.

:lol:

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This is the one we would like to see. In time it may show up, Laura's winds eventually displayed.

  • Cameron
    Special Note: Note that for users without the appropriate data license, contractual obligations prevent live display of wind speeds over 50 mph during tropical storms and hurricanes. Please contact us at [email protected] if you would like additional information.

Anybody have an appropriate data license here?

image.thumb.png.93a90f86a7b94d2429c1e1cfbc75cf73.png

EDIT:

971 MB at 5:36 PM. At least they give us that.

 

 

 

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Delta

...The twenty-sixth tropical cyclone, twenty-fifth named storm, ninth hurricane, and third major hurricane of the very active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, Delta formed from a tropical wave which was first monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on October 1. Moving westward, the wave began to quickly organize and due to its imminent threat to land, it was designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six late on October 4. The next day, the system sufficiently organized and was designated as Tropical Depression Twenty-Six, and soon thereafter, Tropical Storm Delta. Extremely rapid intensification ensued throughout October 5 into October 6, with Delta becoming a Category 4 hurricane within 28 hours of attaining tropical storm status; its pressure bottomed out at 954 mb before its winds peaked at 145 mph. The rate of intensification was the fastest in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. After peaking in intensity however, an unexpected slight increase in wind shear greatly disrupted the small core of Delta and the storm quickly weakened before making landfall in Puerto Morelos, Mexico, as a high-end Category 2 hurricane. It weakened some more over land before emerging into the Gulf of Mexico, where it was downgraded to a Category 1 hurricane. After that, it began to restrengthen, regaining Category 3 status late on October 8. It then turned northward and reached a secondary peak intensity of 120 mph and its lowest pressure of 953 mb early on October 9. Delta then began to turn more north-northeastward into an area of cooler waters, higher wind shear, and dry air, causing it to weaken back to Category 2 status. Delta then made landfall at 23:00 UTC near Creole, Louisiana with winds of 100 mph (155 km/h) and a pressure of 970 mb (28.64 inHg). Delta began to weaken more rapidly after landfall, becoming a tropical depression.

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20 hours ago, Prospero said:

This is the one we would like to see. In time it may show up, Laura's winds eventually displayed.

  • Cameron
    Special Note: Note that for users without the appropriate data license, contractual obligations prevent live display of wind speeds over 50 mph during tropical storms and hurricanes. Please contact us at [email protected] if you would like additional information.

Anybody have an appropriate data license here?

image.thumb.png.93a90f86a7b94d2429c1e1cfbc75cf73.png

EDIT:

971 MB at 5:36 PM. At least they give us that.

 

 

 

That data get released yet?

That was def the most interestingly positioned site for this storm with the track making a center hit on Creole. Creole is east of Cameron so this station would of been in the northwestern-western side of the eyewall which clearly over performed in this storm with the reported winds in Beaumont/Port Arthur which are even more west of the center and west of Cameron.

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2 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

That data get released yet?

That was def the most interestingly positioned site for this storm with the track making a center hit on Creole. Creole is east of Cameron so this station would of been in the northwestern-western side of the eyewall which clearly over performed in this storm with the reported winds in Beaumont/Port Arthur which are even more west of the center and west of Cameron.

Not yet. I just checked again.

Same thing with Laura and I'm not sure how long before it showed up. News reports typically say "100 mph" winds at landfall at Creole with Delta that might be based on reports from those who have the data license to see what Cameron documented. So my guess is a sustained 100 mph wind with gusts maybe 125 or 130. Seems like it should be more and maybe it will be. Cameron finally shared 92 mph hour sustained and 117 mph gust with Laura. Lake Charles Airport was showing 98 mph sustained and 132 mph gust when it went off at 1:53 am on August 27th with Laura. Delta hit the same airport with 59 mph sustained and a gust of 94 mph. Still powerful and lot of power out again. What a nightmare for people around there. I will say the "Frances/Jeanne" double whammy around here was nothing compared to "Laura/Delta". And it still was a long recovery for many.

Glad we on the central Gulf coast of Florida have been so very lucky this year.

 

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5 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

2/7/21 still not released

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

If its good data peak winds/gusts should appear in the TCR from the NHC. Might just have to wait for that if they are now permanently withholding the data for some reason, even though they released the Laura data after 30 days.

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