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Major Hurricane Delta


hlcater
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41 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

We're never going to hear the end of it from the ghost of leroy.

I have him and ldub on ignore, but unfortunately I still see people stupidly replying to them. It's sort of embarassing how threads  here can be totally dominated by out-and-out trolls. 

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609 
WTNT61 KNHC 071054 CCA
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
545 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Corrected header time and time in the summary block

...DELTA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR PUERTO MORELOS...

Satellite imagery, radar data from Cuba, and surface observations 
in Mexico indicate that the center of Delta has made landfall along 
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Puerto Morelos 
around 5:30 AM CDT (1030 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 110 
mph (175 km/h), a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. 

A WeatherFlow observing site near Puerto Morales recently reported 
near calm winds and a minimum pressure of 972 MB (28.71 inches) in 
the center. 

A WeatherFlow observing site near Cancun has reported peak 
sustained winds of 84 mph (135 km/h) with a gust to 106 mph (170 
km/h). 

SUMMARY OF 545 AM CDT...1045 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 86.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Yucatan got a break with the weakening yesterday afternoon. Shows that systems with small cores are prone to rapid fluctuations in intensity.

Center should only be over land for 4-6 hours it appears, depending on exact track. Still unclear how much re-strengthening will occur in the Gulf, as we know how unreliable intensity forecasts can be. Models still pretty set on Delta to be weakening on landfall due to shear + cooler shelf waters, which is very reasonable.

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There is an upper ridge over the E GOM where the influence of upper ENE flow combined with strong mid-level flow had Delta in a region of higher shear the past 18 hours. Shear should (stating at least based on modeling because that hasn't worked out great as of late ) weaken as Delta moves under the western extension of the upper ridge. A strong poleward jet outflow channel will become dominate at the 200 hPa level over the ECONUS downstream to enhance Delta's outflow. SSTs are still quite warm, 29-30°C in the central GOM along the forecast track. If Delta manages to maintain good internal structure, it could go through a second round of rapid intensification somewhere within the 24-60 hrs range before moving over cooler 26-27°C surface layer just south of the north-central GOM.9beee83f273db5bf4b2ced48b2eceb4d.jpg&key=2dcfcc185af0400350e4ac5982e2b3154e71a55a257e819ce2ac1e0644cdf869677cba4d5666031dac1e91fa6f95fe63.jpg&key=01c3104863c2100a3f96c918aff529901a4a53d71970f49fc786736b156e4f054fc6c9576434f534308406db92b19fab.jpg&key=062d7ecb5f3e42907272b0082612bdfad9430199e2d899e890ffda84ce5cfbaf

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8 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Delta continues to exhibit extremely strong convection over land. Looks to be halfway across now.

Was watching three hours ago when the eye moved over land, so another three hours it should be back over water.

Edited: It may actually be a lot closer to moving over the water than I thought...maybe an hour.

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Given the 7AM NHC Public Advisory, the eye of Delta should be entering the GOM near Rio Lagartos, Yucatan in an hour or two [Rio Lagartos is due north of Tizimin, and at the northern midpoint of the Yucatan.

 

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 87.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

Opera Snapshot_2020-10-07_073919_www.bing.com.png

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12z intensity/track guidance implies a borderline cat 2/3 landfall in Vermilion Parish late Friday morning. Coast is basically marsh with low population there. With fast movement and larger storm would certainly see significant wind impacts to Lafayette area though.

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12z intensity/track guidance implies a borderline cat 2/3 landfall in Vermilion Parish late Friday morning. Coast is basically marsh with low population there. With fast movement and larger storm would certainly see significant wind impacts to Lafayette area though.

6z HWRF has a very large hurricane with a large circulation coming ashore. Likely a Cat 2 intensity-wise at landfall, but after having reached 939 mb in the central GOM. If that verifies, the surge impacts are going to be brutal.
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