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Major Hurricane Delta


hlcater
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7 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

FWIW the energy from fusion due to lighting is orders of magnitude lower than that of the storm as a whole and has no effect on strengthening. It’s a symptom of strengthening and microphysics processes, not a cause.

not in the eyewall it isn't:

 

https://www2.atmos.umd.edu/~wmiller/William_Miller_MSpaper.pdf

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That shear is probably why the core is messy. Per GFS soundings, shear decreases again tonight and through landfall. Landfall is ~12z tomorrow so we've got one more diurnal max to really make it. First landfall call for me is 916mb/145kt.

 

EDIT: I'll add the core being messy now is bad news for cancun. We won't get an EWRC with a messy core. 

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That shear is probably why the core is messy. Per GFS soundings, shear decreases again tonight and through landfall. Landfall is ~12z tomorrow so we've got one more diurnal max to really make it. First landfall call for me is 916mb/145kt.
 
EDIT: I'll add the core being messy now is bad news for cancun. We won't get an EWRC with a messy core. 
12z tomorrow is what, 8am?

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

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Wow! Even tropical storm force winds extend no further than 90 mi from Delta's center! Hurricane force is only 40 mi from the eye. 

EDIT: Gilbert hit Cancun as Cat 5 in September 1988 & had a tiny eye too. I'm not saying that Delta will reach 185 mph with a 888 mb pressure, but there are obviously some similarities. 

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9 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Dude doesn’t even know when 12z is but thinks he knows more than Jim Edds 

Regardless of how much you think Jim Edds knows, a sub-900 hPa "call" is simply not based on science.  Yes it is possible, but probably unlikely given (1) the relative infrequence of such events, and (2) the moderate shear currently affecting the system (going sub-900 requires pristine conditions).  

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20 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

Wow! Even tropical storm force winds extend no further than 90 mi from Delta's center! Hurricane force is only 40 mi from the eye. 

EDIT: Gilbert hit Cancun as Cat 5 in September 1988 & had a tiny eye too. I'm not saying that Delta will reach 185 mph with a 888 mb pressure, but they're are obviously some similarities. 

here's a pic of gilbert, you're right-very compact.   Went right into Cozumel as a 5

Gilbert 1988-09-13 2100Z.png

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

here's a pic of gilbert, you're right-very compact.   Went right into Cozumel as a 5

Gilbert 1988-09-13 2100Z.png

The outer circulation of gilbert was clearly much larger.  Also, gilbert was undergoing an ERC when it made landfall, so probably had a much larger RMW at that point.

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7 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Regardless of how much you think Jim Edds knows, a sub-900 hPa "call" is simply not based on science.  Yes it is possible, but probably unlikely given (1) the relative infrequence of such events, and (2) the moderate shear currently affecting the system (going sub-900 requires pristine conditions).  

Where did he “call” a sub900? Go read the original tweet, written after it set the record for fastest bombing out...He said it could go sub 900, which you also agree is a possibility. 

Then the guy who doesn’t know when 12z is decided to school him on twitter and report back to us about it. 

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4 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Where did he “call” a sub900? Go read the original tweet, written after it set the record for fastest bombing out...He said it could go sub 900, which you also agree is a possibility. 

Then the guy who doesn’t know when 12z is decided to school him on twitter and report back to us about it. 

Sub 900 is exceedingly unlikely, so it still doesn't make him an idiot for calling this one out.  And what does not knowing when 12z is have to do with anything?  I have a PhD in atmospheric science and I can't remember how 12z translates to local time on most days.  Does that invalidate my meteorological knowledge? 

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5 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Sub 900 is exceedingly unlikely, so it still doesn't make him an idiot for calling this one out.  And what does not knowing when 12z is have to do with anything?  I have a PhD in atmospheric science and I can't remember how 12z translates to local time on most days.  Does that invalidate my meteorological knowledge? 

You should know when 12z is dude. It’s something even metfan can tell you. 

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