dan11295 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Last two model runs shifted Mexico landfall a bit south. Greater threat of direct eyewall impacts may be Cozumel and Playa Del Carmen. Further South would also mean more time over land before it gets into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Heh...HWRF is down to 935 MB in about 7 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Last two model runs shifted Mexico landfall a bit south. Greater threat of direct eyewall impacts may be Cozumel and Playa Del Carmen. Further South would also mean more time over land before it gets into the Gulf. Moving fast though-won't be over land for more than 8-10 hrs at best and it's flat terrain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: Moving fast though-won't be over land for more than 8-10 hrs at best Its flat terrain out there, too...not like Cuba. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Honestly I just wonder if the land passage just doesn't end up causing the wind field to expand when it restrengthens in the GOM causing much more of a surge threat down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Plane looks to be getting tossed around on that pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: lets be sure to quote the full tweet next time instead of ripping the image as your own. 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 once it clears the yucatan it won't be in that cool pool of water if it went east of the yucatan it will spend more time into a warmer area in the gulf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 20 minutes ago, Derecho! said: Honestly I just wonder if the land passage just doesn't end up causing the wind field to expand when it restrengthens in the GOM causing much more of a surge threat down the road. Agree. The gulf coast would probably be better off it maintained intensity and remained compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Looks like concentric eyewalls on sat and radar even though there's no sign of it on recon. Both eyes are pretty small so recon might have missed a second wind max. That would explain why the pressure isn't tumbling like wilma and the eye is having trouble clearing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 @CheeselandSkies I think it's safe to say Delta is now a member of the "Beast Mode" October Hurricanes Club. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 12 minutes ago, Amped said: Looks like concentric eyewalls on sat and radar even though there's no sign of it on recon. Both eyes are pretty small so recon might have missed a second wind max. That would explain why the pressure isn't tumbling like wilma and the eye is having trouble clearing out. if true that is good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Slight bit of shear, or maybe the eye is just that small that it accounts for the shiftSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Other observation:Pressure went up by 1mb, and the FL winds were lowerSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: if true that is good news Mixed bag. Getting rid of this pinhole and replacing it with something larger and more stable means more areas would see enhanced risk of getting cored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Mixed bag. Getting rid of this pinhole and replacing it with something larger and more stable means more areas would see enhanced risk of getting cored. also looks like the wind field is expanding and there's just as much lightning flashing around the core as at any time in the last few hours - if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Doc Jon said: also looks like the wind field is expanding and there's just as much lightning flashing around the core as at any time in the last few hours - if not more. yeah that's a pretty significant increase in lightning over the past half hour or so...certainly looks as impressive as previous bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: yeah that's a pretty significant increase in lightning over the past half hour or so...certainly looks as impressive as previous bursts. not just heat of vaporization fueling intensification but heat of fusion - ergo rapid intensification still underway.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 And so the fear mongering begins...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: And so the fear mongering begins... Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Jim Edds is legit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, Doc Jon said: not just heat of vaporization fueling intensification but heat of fusion - ergo rapid intensification still underway.. It’s always already the heat of fusion since solar energy drives the whole system to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Jim Edds is legit though. Yeah but sub 900?Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said: It’s always already the heat of fusion since solar energy drives the whole system to begin with. cute. Good point :-) although not the heat of fusion I was talking about but technically correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Yeah but sub 900? Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk anything's on the table now-it had a good environment in front of it the next 48 hrs outside of the brief trek over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Yeah but sub 900? Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk If the eye closes, clears and there isn’t an EWRC, it may be possible. Gotta keep in mind we’ve got a -80 ring and we’re already at 140/956 even with the core being a mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Sub 900 is obviously tough but when it happens it tends to happen this way. The only thing giving me pause is the plateau it is working through right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 FWIW the energy from fusion due to lighting is orders of magnitude lower than that of the storm as a whole and has no effect on strengthening. It’s a symptom of strengthening and microphysics processes, not a cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 I'm shocked Jim said that. Pretty ballsy. Time and organization are working against something that low. Shocked how strong it is given overall satellite presentation. The CDO is impressive though. Getting more symmetrical and wrapping and VERY cold cloud tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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