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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook
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On 3/31/2021 at 6:08 PM, raindancewx said:

Time frame to watch now is mid-April for a big system. Not sure if the position was right for the front range or west, but the 3/26 967 mb off Kamchatka should come through somewhere in the US as a major system.

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3/26-3/27 +17 to 21 days....there it is. SOI crash was huge 4/7 too.

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NWS-digital forecast has 1.5" - 3.3" of snow for the Front Range cities with some values less than 6" for the Palmer Divide, up until Friday 00z (Thursday night). The QPF is 0.45" up to 0.92". This means that my place will have marginal temps, rain/snow mix, or just rain for a long time.  I guess might be the whole storm system, as it is getting into this short range forecast window. QPF for the mountains is 1.2" or more (12-16" of snow).  

 

1CUhQDR.png

 

WPC- 120 hour precip (going out to Saturday) shows that the mountains could get 20"-25" and major cities could get 0.7"-1.4" of QPF in some format. Oh man, if this were only colder, we would be having some major discussions about this.

 

oKgv81A.png

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Looks pretty promising for snow over the next four days down here. Only need 1.3" in the city to make it the snowiest cold season since 2006-07. Doubt we'll get much if any accumulating snow though. Oct, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr snow at the airport would be six months with measurable snow. That's rare if it happens. Would be the the first cold season to see accumulating snow in six months since 1997-98.

 

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Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
14 Apr 2021 1010.16 1010.50 -19.69 0.22 5.46
13 Apr 2021 1009.79 1010.95 -25.60 0.83 5.90
12 Apr 2021 1011.26 1010.15 -9.23 1.60 6.45
11 Apr 2021 1012.90 1009.25 9.08 1.52 6.74

Need to watch the period around 4/22-4/24 for some kind of major system. It's been years since we've had 35+ drop in two days in the SOI.

 

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It's been a steady nickel/dime event up here in Glen Haven.  About 3" on Tuesday, and about the same amount again yesterday evening and night.  The road surface melting in-between has been welcome...so bring on the moisture!  I did have a hairy experience on the switchbacks north of Estes on CR43 where a layer of ice had formed under a layer of snow Tuesday evening, that was not fun at all as my Jeep nearly hit a guardrail despite crawling down at 5mph.

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My place was completely dry for 24 hours, and now we have some drizzle today. But I suppose then the "storm" might be in the future. Seemingly, this storm is always in the future.

Quote

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9
AM MDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 35 mph

 

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1 hour ago, mayjawintastawm said:

3.7" last night, 4" last week, season total now up to 83.7". Pretty sure this is a top 2 season for me since 2010. I think we can about stick a fork in this one, having begun 7 1/2 months ago. I kind of hope. Bring on hail season :)

Maybe after tomorrow a fork can be put in with models pointing to a few inches on Wednesday.  But the NWS says - Meh.  Up here we have had a pretty good season, though I honestly have no idea how much total snowfall has occurred.  We even picked up some surprisingly good snows on Labor Day and again in late October.  March and April have been good to us as well.  In between was underwhelming.

I'm ready for snow season to end too, and also hoping that the Monsoon actually shows up this year.  The lack of a real monsoon last year seems to me to be what drove the massive fires last year.

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My place has gotten some light snow tonight. Fort Collins has been 13.4 degrees below average since 4/12. At the beginning of the month, the GEFS seemed to say that we were in for quite a few above normal days. So, days 10-15 of the GEFS were very wrong, as far as I can figure out.

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On 4/20/2021 at 11:08 AM, ValpoVike said:

I'm ready for snow season to end too, and also hoping that the Monsoon actually shows up this year.  The lack of a real monsoon last year seems to me to be what drove the massive fires last year.

Darn right. The dryness fed on itself last year with windy, somewhat hot days all through summer and dew points rivaling those on Mars. The early melt out didn't help, but things could have been mitigated by at least SOME wet thunderstorms... nope.

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