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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook
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1 minute ago, n1vek said:

Looking at recent guidance, seems like the slower/south camp is working out? Will be interesting to see how this materializes overnight? Someone check me here if I am wrong. 

I've noticed a tick up north in some of the HRRR and other mesoscale runs but maybe that's just me.

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2 hours ago, n1vek said:

Pretty brutal miss (thus far) here in the city. Really hope the Estes crew cashed in or hopped in the car for Wyoming. 

Not sure about in town at EP, but so far not bad north of town. I was hoping for 40"+ this weekend, but it doesn't feel like we get there. Maybe we exit today at 30-32"...which is still great.  It depends on when the spigot shuts off obviously. 

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21 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

The models still want to give Denver and points south 8-12"  more before it all ends, but I just don't see it.

The HRRR is juiced for the rest of today and into the evening. Still may end up getting to the initial forecast estimates if that plays out. Strange, slow event. Looks like Eldora, Winter Park are getting buried today as well. 

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11 minutes ago, ValpoVike said:

Last weekend's storm did wonders on catching most of the Northeastern CO region on seasonal snowfall.  From the NWS this morning, contrasting seasonal totals prior to the storm and totals following the storm:

 

According to the SNOTEL maps I look at, the South Platte Basin (CO only) jumped from 87% to 100% and the Arkansas Basin jumped from 89% to 102%

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The models have some snow on Sunday for the foothills to the Palmer Divide. GFS is a little nuts with the QPF, but the Euro has about 0.5" for Estes Park to the Palmer Divide. So maybe we will keep up the 100% of average snow water equivalent for the mountains for a week or two. That's not too bad. Related to the last storm... let's see, who do we thank for advance notice of the blizzard ... the GFS.. and Raindance!  

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There was a 988 mb low in the same spot over southern Kamchatka as the 970 mb low two days ago. That's probably early April (4/2-4/6?). That might be the final storm in the sequence. There is definitely a break after that. Although longer term, the GFS does have other potent systems up there around day 5 and on, but not sure I buy it.

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The system the Euro has down here for 3/23-3/24 ties in correctly to the major SOI crash 3/11-3/13. One day 13 point drop, with a two day drop of 18 points.

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WPC for Monday-Wednesday. The latest GFS is a little bit faster with when precipitation arrives Tues-Weds down here. I think we're going to get a coating to two inches in Albuquerque. That's been hard to come by in March. If the airport gets at least 1.5", this becomes the snowiest Oct-May since 2006-07 for the city.

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