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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook
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The 3-km NAM has a pretty good snow storm for New Mexico & Southern Colorado. The West side of Albuquerque did well in the October storm and again in the December storm that missed the airport. According to the 3-km NAM that will happen again from the east wind snow shadow. Most of this is through about 2 pm Tuesday. So the model probably has some sense of what will actually happen. The east wind has trended down for Albuquerque at certain times, so might be good for parts of the city. You can see there is a big area of pinks around Southern Colorado. This is the storm tied to the 10 point SOI drops 1/8 and 1/9 (+10 days), as it arrives late 1/18 into 1/19 down here. Also, the system just about matches the 12/28, +17 to +21 day timing from the Kamchatka system that I mentioned before using the Typhoon Rule - although it is a day late. 

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I must admit, the situation did not look good at the beginning of the fall. There has been a significant (fiery) drought here, and a La Nina incoming. A moderate-strong La Nina does not correlate to high precipitation for southern and eastern Colorado.  In some of the most recent weeks have had snow go south of us, like in New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. This happened even without a deep arctic air mass mostly. That kind of thing can happen from time to time with an El Nino, but the situation in the Pacific is certainly a La Nina.

As of today, the near-term storm does not look like it is going to bring more than 1" of snow to my place, but a reasonable amount for central-southwest Colorado and some of New Mexico, and rain for Arizona. The models have bigger storm for the Rockies/Plains in about 1 week------ every model has the snow missing Denver. So I'm not pleased.

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I found some data that show conflicting answers as to what is likely to happen with precipitation during a La Nina. Check this out. The top two maps will show red/orange with increased precip with El Nino, blue/green with increased precip with La Nina. The bottom two maps show increased precipitation in blue/green for La Nina (and does not include any information from weak/moderate/strong El Nino years.)   Colorado seems to be the only area in the country with different colors on the comarisons of the top two maps- and also the comparisons of the bottom two maps. This must mean something like the inclusion November and March is quite important.

 

November to March-- more inclusive, because we get plenty of snow in November and March--

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December to February only--

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Specific La Nina winters (December to February Only, 1981-2010 climatology)

 

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November to March--- specific La Nina years

380QCgZ.jpg

 

 

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There are slightly different impacts for precipitation patterns in ENSO by season long-term.

Down here, La Nina is actually a wet signal most places in September. It's then very dry for Oct-May as a signal. La Nina is not really a huge dry signal for Colorado in winter overall. More important early and late. New Mexico does well for precipitation long-term in periods of strong +NAO or strong -NAO, and you guys do better in between. Essentially, Colorado is part of the Northwest in winter, and part of the Southwest in terms of Fall/Spring for storm patterns. That's how I think of it.

ENSO-Precip-Correlations

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On 1/18/2021 at 8:36 AM, smokeybandit said:

Last winter, my first in Colorado, I had used my snowblower like 6-7 times by mid-January

 

This year so far: once.

Yup, been here 10 years now, variability is the only constant. And most snow is in Feb/Mar/Apr/October. We sold our 25 year old John Deere in about 10 seconds before moving from SNE, cause we have a self-shoveling driveway here (faces due South). 

Also, last year (2019-20) we had the snowiest early season since we've been here, with about 2 feet by Thanksgiving- Parker had even a little more if I remember right. And sun angle is a HUGE determinant of snow removal around here- so Nov-Dec-Jan snows need a lot more work than Mar-Apr snows.

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4 hours ago, mayjawintastawm said:

Yup, been here 10 years now, variability is the only constant. And most snow is in Feb/Mar/Apr/October. We sold our 25 year old John Deere in about 10 seconds before moving from SNE, cause we have a self-shoveling driveway here (faces due South). 

Also, last year (2019-20) we had the snowiest early season since we've been here, with about 2 feet by Thanksgiving- Parker had even a little more if I remember right. And sun angle is a HUGE determinant of snow removal around here- so Nov-Dec-Jan snows need a lot more work than Mar-Apr snows.

Same story here.  I moved here from a lake effect snowbelt and after my first two winters I unloaded my Cub Cadet due to being south facing.  I do have a very steep driveway but just park at the top if there is snow on it.  Probably an average of 10 days per year that I have to do that.  The most extreme example of this is the May 19, 2017 storm that dumped 41" in my area.  I kid you not...by the end of the next day it was 100% melted except under trees that had a bit of shade. 

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Since I moved here in 2006, the average December snowfall for Fort Collins has been above the 30-year climatology for the 1971-2000 period.  8.3" (1970/71-1999/2000) increasing to 11.5" (2006/07-2019/20). March snowfall has gone in the opposite direction:  11.8" way down to 6.6".

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The storm I'm watching the closest is actually the 1/30 (ish) system for NM/CO. That's the only one in the train of systems supported by the SOI crash. It's been trending up in strength on each run of the European. Currently looks like a powerful Pacific cold front for Western NM, but I think it may keep trending up.

Euro has up to 100 inches of snow for California over the next six days.

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My place has gotten 1" today, with some nice larger flakes right now. I guess that's an improvement from me complaining about stuff. Interestingly, last January my place got 0" of snow, but I ended up with 79.9" for the season. Weird.  The Southwest is certainly getting a series of heavy storms, I'm sure putting a dent in the drought that has developed over the past year.  Check out this crazy blizzard warning for the Sierras and South Lake Tahoe city.

 

edit: roughly 2" here

Quote

Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline,
and Incline Village
905 AM PST Tue Jan 26 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST
FRIDAY...

* CHANGES...Upgrade to Blizzard Warning.

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  2 to 4 feet, except 3 to 6 feet above 7000 feet. Winds gusting
  as high as 50 mph in the lower elevations with over 100 mph at
  times over ridges with whiteout conditions.

 

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I look at Flagstaff as a proxy for Arizona, and they'll switch to positive anomalies for snow for winter to date by the end of January. The Upper Rio Grande basin in Colorado is now above average, and the north-central mountains in NM are nearing average as of data through yesterday. So the snow pack feeding the Rio Grande is actually in decent shape. Even if the Southwest has large areas that finish wet in January in a La Nina, a dry Spring is still favored. But my research suggests a less dry Spring is possible if large areas of the Southwest pull out a wet January in a La Nina. The pattern is dry overall for the New Mexico valleys, but Albuquerque hasn't hit 60 in like eight-weeks, so it's not like any of the snow on the mountains has melted much.

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/co_swepctnormal_update.pdf

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The Euro still has 4-9" for our area on Wednesday-Thursday. The GFS does show this storm now, but the pattern of precipitation is splotchy, with a wild 11" near Fort Morgan and 0.4" for Longmont. The comparison of the 00z run vs the 12z run of the Canadian shows wild inconsistencies.

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