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October Discobs 2020


George BM
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26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think a lot of the N/W burbs get a freeze Saturday morning. Maybe BWI too. But I’ll definitely take the over on those GGEM temps.

Yup.  I can see that.  Once again I blew the contest.  I should have remembered that old saying ...cold September..no freeze til November. 

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@WxWatcher007

 

TROPICAL STORM ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020               
0300 UTC WED OCT 28 2020                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                            

 

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  40(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
ATLANTIC CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  35(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
BALTIMORE MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
BALTIMORE MD   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)  42(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
DOVER DE       50  X   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
DOVER DE       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  40(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
ANNAPOLIS MD   50  X   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
ANNAPOLIS MD   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  39(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
WASHINGTON DC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
WASHINGTON DC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  49(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
CAPE HENLOPEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
CAPE HENLOPEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  49(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)  27(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  48(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
PAX RIVER NAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
PAX RIVER NAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  47(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
WALLOPS CDA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  38(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
CHARLOTTESVIL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  48(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
RICHMOND VA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
RICHMOND VA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
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7 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I think a lot of the N/W burbs get a freeze Saturday morning. Maybe BWI too. But I’ll definitely take the over on those GGEM temps.

00z GGEM still likes 31 degrees at DCA and 29 at BWI 12z Saturday morning... 00z GFS/00z UKIE both say no though with upper 30s as lows

ETA: 00z RGEM at its final frame at 12z SAT has DCA at 32 and BWI at 30

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Martinsburg has a chance for a couple of sub-50 high temperatures on Friday and Saturday.  They've already had one this month at the airport.  The last time MRB had more than one sub-50 high in October was 2012, during Sandy.  The last time there were more than two days that cool in October was 2009.  Coupled with the earliest freezing temp on record in September, its been a nice cool start to autumn.

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2 hours ago, mappy said:

this week has been terrible. cloudy. gray. foggy. terrible for ones mood. 

next two days dont look much better.

I totally agree. I work in a health care setting and it is bad enough already with the backdrop of Covid and limitations on activities in the more at risk populations, but add on this lack of sunshine, with shorter days and the chill coming, it certainly is draining on one's mental health.    

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19 minutes ago, frd said:

I totally agree. I work in a health care setting and it is bad enough already with the backdrop of Covid and limitations on activities in the more at risk populations, but add on this lack of sunshine, with shorter days and the chill coming, it certainly is draining on one's mental health.    

Load up on D3 supplements, CBD oil, and drink moderately if possible.

2020 ain't so bad. :drunk:

 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

And I've been taking D1,D2,D4 all this time ... oh the humanity :axe:

LOL

Well, vitamin D3 comes from fish oil, egg yolks, etc. When skin is exposed to sunlight, it produces vitamin D3. So for those lacking(or avoiding) sun exposure, it is the one you want. Lack of D3 can cause depression in some.. i.e SAD. Most people in the mid and higher latitudes are deficient, unless you are a sun worshipper.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

LR uncertainty. We know all about that.

Ensembles have been advertising a cold period sometime around Halloween for quite awhile now. It is going to happen. Always issues with timing and details..

Yeah. Just hammering home the point that cold is notoriously slow to come east in Ninas and that nobody should put stock in any model at
10 +. In case anyone needs reminding ...

F5AA5055-ECFD-43EE-87EF-22F34A321644.thumb.png.a1e33efbd0d3d66fce45a8483d5897f8.pngDCCD0CA3-D271-4C65-91CA-7BF74ABA6740.thumb.png.99b1b7a9aba6591418e41b0f7a14dccc.png79755AA6-9BA0-4870-AB87-50F3216F353A.png.49abab93e1cfc3afcbe31453ab9d62f0.pngB15ACE98-43AA-47D0-AE05-550DB178DB05.thumb.png.23c0404503e7efb33f574aa8794032a0.png

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7 hours ago, LP08 said:

Both NAMs and GFS painting a very widespread 2”+ for just about everyone.  Below is euro precip from last night.

 

qpf_acc.us_ma.png
Couple of very raw days on tap.

That's a thin band with good rain. And, sometimes it shifts down or up this far out. 

I only say this because I am hoping for less rain.

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LWX AFD mentions 30s and 40s for highs on Monday with poss advisory criteria winds... so it going to be a chilly day

Quote

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A powerful cold front will be approaching from the west on
Sunday, but will not arrive until Sunday night. Thus, we will
see a mild southwest flow which should allow temps to moderate
significantly compared to Saturday`s chilly temps, with a rise
of 10 or more degrees possible. This, however, would only bring
temps back to near normal.

The front will cross the region late Sunday into Sunday evening,
with some showers along or just behind the front possible. Will
have to watch for potential low-topped convection, as well as
for a burst of gusty winds behind such a powerful front.
Gradient winds will be strong behind the front, particularly on
Monday as low pressure strengthens to our northeast, providing a
windy and chilly start to the work week. Humidity will also be
low, and if it wasn`t for the rains we will get today, there
could be a fire weather concern. Winds could approach advisory
criteria on Monday, which might cause minor damage, mainly to
trees.

Temps Monday will be well below Sunday, and in fact stand a good
chance of being the coldest so far this season, with temps
potentially staying in the 30s and 40s all day long. This would
lead to another widespread freeze potential, with likely
the coldest night of the season thus far Monday night. Temps in
most suburbs could reach the 20s, especially if the wind
slackens late at night.
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