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October 2020 Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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22 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Our solutions are obviously snow or no snow, but the ensembles definitely seemed to be splitting into two camps of goose eggs and minor accumulations. Some triple bunners, but we toss those for now. 

Ensemble sensitivity had most of the variance tied to amplification of the system. So more amped may bring more QPF, but also more warm air. Flatter could also whiff completely (more so up this way). Gotta thread it, but cautiously optimistic right now.

In pictures 

KGDM_2020102600_snow_360.png

KGDM_2020102600_precip_360.png

eps_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_114.png

gefs_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_102.png

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8 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm not going to go back and dig up the posts where you advocated just trashing it instead of going FV3, but it's worth noting that no significant changes have been made to the model physics. It's the same package as the v14 GFS but a different core to make future changes easier. 

FWIW, these are the cosmetic changes made:

Any narrowing of the performance gap (perceived or real) is more likely due to Euro changes than GFS at this point. I'd like to see more than ~ 1 year's worth of data before calling that though.

As always, a very high quality discussion when a certain Met does the long range.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup!  ...I cited these notions too earlier on last eve and how this has 'no margin for error' 

It's a phasing deal but doing so through thru an unusually narrow longitude - interesting...  There's actually three entities btw ...  The Para G and oper. G are both coherent with Zeta remnants peeling S of LI ... Could bring some IB over the nascent polar front and then we "lull" ( maybe ...) whatever is falling at that time - probably goes to raw mist... Then as you said, 'legit cold' loading arrives .. It's hard to even pull a barrier/drain jet out of that synopsis, though there's likely to be 925 mb accelerations around typical topography.  But the point is .. with whole region C-NE --> S seeming to wall at once, that signifies a deep-ish layer that means bidness' ..  I could see people 44 F in light to moderate rain, then cat pawing at 39 when I see that... start going to parachutes at 37 in that look, shedding T's in a pulse and subtle backing wind direction.  

As an aside, we're seeing unusual temperature variance either side of ambient polar fronts in recent autumns.  < 0 C 850s against temps reside where mere 300 naut mi S still supports 80 F ...spanning along vast stretches of the continent .. Autumn extremes are not hugely unusual, but that 'not huge' is becoming 'more usual' in autumns since ~ 2000... 62 F like days with clouds and blase slope sun, and then 37 with cat paws the next day is deceptively non-dramatic and slips under awareness in a modernity that is perhaps too distracting/culturally to think of it as significant .. or perhaps 'jolting' is becoming common place in itself. But the first 30 years of my life, it was not that frequent that mere 24 hourly temp changes needed to be nearing 30 F as frequently as it has in the last 20 years...  way more common than it used to be.  Even doing so spanning 72 hours.. it's relative to all temporal scales ... increased frequency of larger variance.  altho today 'feels' like a step down drab 

Either way, it's always exciting to cover the season's first snow ..even if it is just in the air. 

May want to post this in new storm thread.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Light snow falling at home now.  Great to see big flakes in the flood lights.  

Same here.  First flakes I've witnessed of the season.  The car had a slushy coating when I woke up the other morning and we drove to see some on the ground the other weekend but this is the first action shot I've seen so far.

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10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I’ve seen some snow grains this morning, almost like a frozen drizzle lol.

Rime ice layer is real low, like 2,500ft or a bit lower.  Trees really frosted up last night.

Got a photo of this observation from earlier... heavy rime ice last night and today.  Probably even some snow grains and almost like frozen drizzle accumulating on the upper slopes.

122869059_10104355757573770_533745012644

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