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October 2020 Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gotta give credit. FV3 has schooled the Euro since last winter. Whatever they did .. it’s better . Can’t toss it anymore 

I'm not going to go back and dig up the posts where you advocated just trashing it instead of going FV3, but it's worth noting that no significant changes have been made to the model physics. It's the same package as the v14 GFS but a different core to make future changes easier. 

FWIW, these are the cosmetic changes made:

Quote
  • Replacement of Zhao-Carr microphysics with the more advanced GFDL microphysics
  • Updated parameterization of ozone photochemistry with additional production and loss terms
  • Newly introduced parameterization of middle atmospheric water vapor photochemistry
  • Revised bare soil evaporation scheme
  • Modified convective parameterization scheme to reduce excessive cloud top cooling.

Any narrowing of the performance gap (perceived or real) is more likely due to Euro changes than GFS at this point. I'd like to see more than ~ 1 year's worth of data before calling that though.

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8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know everyone is probably thinking about the snow but I find the tropical remnants piece interesting. That looks fairly robust for someone depending on the track and eventual intensity of Zeta. Any frozen would be gravy for this tropical weenie. 

Oh it’s likely to be a notable TC ... 

it’s got that tightly coherent nucleus look garland by that pink nausea cold ...  dumping ocean sodium into the the lower stat

I wonder what the IOH is down there. Prolly gotta dive a half mile to get the cline waters under 80...

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