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October 2020 Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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It could certainly come back ... but it is irresistible to tease people because they have no other outlet to trigger dopamine joy and have become dependent upon a weather models to do so...

ha.  But, climatologically? this is still the period of time for the so dubbed, 'home grown' season -

I mentioned last week that this was probably just being a sensitivity issue in the GFS, based upon those native numerical instabilities at this time of year that permeate that 'petri dish' for TC's in that area - I even said we 'go through this ever year' where the the GFS ( and sometimes the GGEM used to) brings a TC across Cuba.  sarcastically.. comparing it to Sandy - which ...was a scenario where the GFS "probably" at first did the same antic, but then the scored at the black-jack table when one actually did develop.  I remember some 13 days prior to Sandy, early model runs had a similar evac of  TC... But, as fate would have it, the NAO tanked ( crucially west based no less!), such that a cumulus cloud would be forced to into the MA... and then a perturbation timed right and found fertility in that area - boom...

Also, back in 2003 the GGEM did this - reiterating that post... which, yeah - seems arbitrary to reference and era 17 years back but it's relevant regardless -

It's was probably just illusions of numerical instability ... not "yet" realized... Whether the yet materializes?  It may still... but at this time, it is just modeled to do so - in the meantime, there are recent/other compensating physics going on that are muting that climate signal, and that is why the models are not spinning up the phantoms, either.  It does probably lower the probability altogether that anything there will develop if that is the case because that means that the muting emerged rather than a TC from the "uncertainty principle" of chaos as we get closer - lol.. .but yeah

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8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Go to page 60 and 61. Some crazy joking, yet disturbing foreshadowing going on in that thread.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, alex said:

Posted in wrong thread probably but snowcover still hanging around here. It seems pretty unusual for this time of the year to have 48+ hr of snowcover at relatively low elevations. 

I left Pittsburg this morning and the snow was crusted over after softening up yesterday. Wouldve been a great base builder in a month, had some meat to it. 

Snowpack got thin between Stratford and Lancaster, then picked up again south of Lancaster to the notch. Quickly dropped to nothing along 93 on the southside of the notch. 

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