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October 2020 Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hopefully the winds aren’t as fickle as all the rain we’ve had in the last couple weeks.

I had to change my well filter because of all the sediment in it... usually they last a few months... this one a month... something different going on for sure 

Driest 3 month period on record here by a wide margin.  From July 1st

Capture.JPG.f571f0efc7ce68b63da129c6eb42d901.JPG

 

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Quick tenth of an inch last hour and raining steadily.  Cold 51F up here at 1,500ft and looks like 53F down in town.

Strong westerly flow downsloping into BTV area and then upsloping again into the Greens and east of the Spine.  Should see a standing wave pattern develop for a bit here with that up/down/up couplet as moisture hits the Adirondacks, drops/dries into the Champlain Valley and then rises again over the Greens and gets shoved way eastward in the fast flow.

The atmospheric speed bumps are working.

173939460_Oct7.gif.6937de06f396208589905df84f6fc0b8.gif

 

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26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Quick tenth of an inch last hour and raining steadily.  Cold 51F up here at 1,500ft and looks like 53F down in town.

Strong westerly flow downsloping into BTV area and then upsloping again into the Greens and east of the Spine.  Should see a standing wave pattern develop for a bit here with that up/down/up couplet as moisture hits the Adirondacks, drops/dries into the Champlain Valley and then rises again over the Greens and gets shoved way eastward in the fast flow.

The atmospheric speed bumps are working.

173939460_Oct7.gif.6937de06f396208589905df84f6fc0b8.gif

 

I hope to see a lot of these images posted November - April. 

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Quick tenth of an inch last hour and raining steadily.  Cold 51F up here at 1,500ft and looks like 53F down in town.

Strong westerly flow downsloping into BTV area and then upsloping again into the Greens and east of the Spine.  Should see a standing wave pattern develop for a bit here with that up/down/up couplet as moisture hits the Adirondacks, drops/dries into the Champlain Valley and then rises again over the Greens and gets shoved way eastward in the fast flow.

The atmospheric speed bumps are working.

173939460_Oct7.gif.6937de06f396208589905df84f6fc0b8.gif

MountainMagic.jpg

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4 minutes ago, alex said:

Raining pretty heavily here. 0.12 so far

First burst here brought 0.15-0.30” it looks like to local PWS on the Spine and eastward.

BTV radar has been down since 12:30pm but doesn’t seem like much is happening out there right now.

Feels more normal now with frequent rain every few days, like we are out of that September dry funk.

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10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

It's shocking how bad the Euro has been. Like really, really bad. For months now!

Yes sir 

Thing is, contrasting the GFS has a polar side low height anomaly it maintains.. which it atones for ( I think ..) by speeding up the flow everywhere more so than reality - which buries it's error in a way because it's already fast/gradient rich.  That then causes it to be too W-E biased...  

It makes it difficult to parse our because the flow has been +AO like with steeper heights N and speedy flow overall as a persistency over recent years, and that's sort of masking the amount of bias the GFS is maintaining ... interesting -

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm looking at that. It shows it still leading from 1000mb to 500mb....but my eye says otherwise. 

In our neck of the woods it just seems like it's getting a lot wrong when it matters...whether it be timing fronts, QPF, storm tracks, temps, etc. I'm with you though.

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