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October 2020 Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Still see a decent chance of a PWAT plume entering the westerlies near enough our circuitry to clip New England if not more directly from Delta ... 

At the time I thought Gamma but ..it doesn't really matter as both entities were in hot prospect of being captured by the larger synoptic grab and smear pattern... 

The question is, what form does that take. 

Some guidance even hold onto vestigial ...though conversion physics, others are wane it out but then develop a separate baroclinic wavy on the wave boundary that feeds off the latent heat plume...and gets us that way...   Then of course the GFS tries to shunt it all S under a high pressure it is too aggressive and full of shit to begin with because it has too much mid and upper air tropospheric wind speeds everywhere, all the time, as an irritating model bias that causes confluences to get out of control mass and produces too much surface high pressures...  

CMC was pretty wet up here from delta and the front after

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Wow.   Josh made it to Cancun.  He is the man.  He must have more hurricane intercepts than anyone else in the world.  This one should be intense.  Looking at the graphics the eye should pass around 8am.  Hopefully it doesn't speed up so he can get some good daylight video within the eye.

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1 hour ago, PowderBeard said:

First snow for Phin? 

 

nam3km_asnow_neus_61.png

Time for the mountains to get some whitening... looks like 2500ft+ best shot but some mangled flakes could reach 1500ft at the tail end on that run.

Getting to be that time of year.  A Thursday gondola ride may be in order to start the day lol.

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Some interesting weather tomorrow...Strong winds and some rain?

QPF amounts will be highly tied to terrain given the strong westerly flow, with upslope areas of the Greens/Adirondacks seeing the most precip and the Connecticut and Champlain Valleys seeing the least owing to downsloping effects. Total QPF amounts will range from 0.3 to 1.0 inch over higher terrain of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, to 0.1 to 0.4 inches in the Champlain, Saint Lawrence, and Connecticut Valleys.
 

Just how strong winds will get tomorrow is a tricky forecast...and will likely see much variability in reported winds due to expected precipitation. Strongest winds are expected during the afternoon into the evening in areas that see breaks in precipitation...which should be on the eastern slopes of the northern Adirondacks and the eastern slopes of the southern Green Mountains. Wind gusts in these areas will be between 30 and 45 mph, with a few isolated gusts to 50 mph possible. Elsewhere, gusts will range from 20 to 35 mph. As stated before, the wrench in the forecast could be the precipitation and it`s stabilizing effects on the lower- levels...so expect weaker winds in any areas that see prolonged precipitation.

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