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Death of DroughtStein Discussion


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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Remember what he said about last week . Stein was gone for all and dead and soakings etc. To me, this looks very similar.. showers but no good soakings and drought ender 

Yeah i do remember, It looks similar for you guys next week as well, Just showers, No real soaking, Looks the same here as well, Just showers.

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11 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

The sub-heading for that article, below, is only a small part of its content, but I guess climate change gets clicks (like mine.)

Climate change is taking a toll on woodlands in the Northeast.

Much of the article was about the need for more arborists, a real issue.  CC was noted as a factor but not applied specifically to the trees noted in the piece except in relation to drought, which though currently serious cannot compare to conditions in the (cooler) 1960s.  One little part about planting southern trees was puzzling, mentioning black gum, pawpaw and persimmon as tolerant of warmth and drought.  In Maine all the black gum I've encountered were in wetland soils.  The same person then noted she was planting balsam fir to replace adelgid-vulnerable hemlock.  Fir is considered at risk in Maine due to a warming climate; it's about the last species I'd recommend planting in Mass.  Considerable discussion of emerald ash borer, not really a climate change issue.  I was surprised at the article's dismissive treatment of biological control ( because "it's so expensive!") for EAB, when that strategy is the only option for saving ash in the forest - pesticide application is economically feasible only for valuable specimen trees.  Not a bad article overall but had some headscratchers.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Probably the wrong thread for this but i've taken notice on the models that things could get interesting mid month especially up in NNE with some cold air around as well as precip, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some frozen and not just in the elevations.

The GFS would certainly argue that but the euro argues quite differently. Regardless, it does appear as if we'll see somewhat of a gradient pattern setup so that is certainly possible up north. Looks like a scenario where we sneak in some brief cold shots (at least into NNE). I just can't believe there is another sizable ridge building into the West lol...they can't catch a break. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The GFS would certainly argue that but the euro argues quite differently. Regardless, it does appear as if we'll see somewhat of a gradient pattern setup so that is certainly possible up north. Looks like a scenario where we sneak in some brief cold shots (at least into NNE). I just can't believe there is another sizable ridge building into the West lol...they can't catch a break. 

Just getting back into model runs as its that time of year for me but going by what others have said all summer about the euro, I would be skeptical of what it has in the long range, Folks out west are worse off then us here with all the fires in CA with little to no relief.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Just getting back into model runs as its that time of year for me but going by what others have said all summer about the euro, I would be skeptical of what it has in the long range, Folks out west are worse off then us here with all the fires in CA with little to no relief.

the Euro has really struggled this summer...especially in the tropical department (actually has been kinda brutal). but I think all models have struggled this summer. I seriously wonder if decline of flights due to COVID is playing a role and a rather significant role. I'm just curious though if the GFS cold bias has been fixed or muted a bit. Thankfully they have gotten some rain in WA/OR but CA...I just have no words. Looks like another hot stretch coming too with 80's and 90's across interior CA...even OAK could get into the 80's again.

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19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

the Euro has really struggled this summer...especially in the tropical department (actually has been kinda brutal). but I think all models have struggled this summer. I seriously wonder if decline of flights due to COVID is playing a role and a rather significant role. I'm just curious though if the GFS cold bias has been fixed or muted a bit. Thankfully they have gotten some rain in WA/OR but CA...I just have no words. Looks like another hot stretch coming too with 80's and 90's across interior CA...even OAK could get into the 80's again.

Coming into fall and the winter season, It should be interesting to see how the models are going to perform once activity increases, And yes, We will have to see if the GFS cold bias has improved but generally, Its other weakness is coastal storms but that's where the Euro was strong so it will be interesting to say the least as may have to use more of a blend.

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3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Coming into fall and the winter season, It should be interesting to see how the models are going to perform once activity increases, And yes, We will have to see if the GFS cold bias has improved but generally, Its other weakness is coastal storms but that's where the Euro was strong so it will be interesting to say the least as may have to use more of a blend.

Hopefully we'll get coastal storms to track :lol: 

but who knows...if this becomes a Nina with a monster SE ridge the storm track may be across MI lol

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Hopefully we'll get coastal storms to track :lol: 

but who knows...if this becomes a Nina with a monster SE ridge the storm track may be across MI lol

Cutter after cutter after cutter, Pig in AK and a SE ridge and i should be able to keep my tan all winter...............:(

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Cutter after cutter after cutter, Pig in AK and a SE ridge and i should be able to keep my tan all winter...............:(

Hopefully it will be more exciting than last winter. But I'm real curious about this winter. If the theme of establishing a ridge in the West holds at least through a good part of winter I would think that would bode well for us...but if the SE ridge becomes established we could get an omega like setup so then it becomes a question of where the trough axis is positioned. I really wish I had more time (and knowledge) to explore long-range forecasting. I used to be super, super into it but time is just not there...and my methods for "research" suck and are too time consuming lol. 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Hopefully it will be more exciting than last winter. But I'm real curious about this winter. If the theme of establishing a ridge in the West holds at least through a good part of winter I would think that would bode well for us...but if the SE ridge becomes established we could get an omega like setup so then it becomes a question of where the trough axis is positioned. I really wish I had more time (and knowledge) to explore long-range forecasting. I used to be super, super into it but time is just not there...and my methods for "research" suck and are too time consuming lol. 

A +PNA and a weaker WAR we could be ok, But the pacific really drives the bus for here, Right now, I'm glad i'm further north.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A +PNA and a weaker WAR we could be ok, But the pacific really drives the bus for here, Right now, I'm glad i'm further north.

I think the WAR ridge will be key. Obviously things can change as we move through the cool season but this look in the Atlantic right now isn't very comforting. Models have also really struggled with Atlantic ridging the past few years and I think moreso this summer and that could be a culprit of the lack of cross-country flights. I do recall though some research into +SSTA's around Greenland correlating to a greater chance for a -NAO but of course there are other factors to consider. I'm curious as to whether the smoke from the wildfires in the West will have an influence on the stratosphere? I saw some rumblings about that but I have no knowledge in this aspect. It also looks like we could be heading towards a "basin wide" or "central Pacific" (or whatever you want to call it) La Nina. 

Map of SST anomalies

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4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Monday good drop some decent rain into southwestern CT. Probably going to be a huge cut-off between the heavier rain and virtually nothing with the HP to the north. Monday looks pretty chilly too and breezy

This is driving me nuts as I need to send staff out into the field to sample when it rains, but I'm so up in the air about Monday. I'm leaning towards the HP winning, but not sure.

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