Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Tuesday, September 29, 2020 Low Cape/High Shear Convective Setup


weatherwiz
 Share

Recommended Posts

Well...welcome to fall. A season where low topped convective setups become more typical as strong cold front move into airmasses with marginal instability. Computer forecast models have been rather consistent in a pretty significant shortwave trough approaching the region and then de-amplifying a bit as it approaches with the trough sort of lifting out. While usually this is an indication of a weakening system, wind fields aloft are quite strong. At the surface, we'll have an unseasonably warm and moist airmass with temperatures into the 70's and dewpoints into the 60's. Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit instability potential, however, several hundred J/KG of CAPE would be likely. The combination of strong shear/forcing and marginal instability will likely promote the development of one or multiple line segments which will be capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts. Convection may be low-topped but this is dependent on how much instability materializes. 

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...