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uofmiami

October 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'm not a fan of comparing current temps to the averages during the past 30 years. The comparison should be made over the entire data set for a location. 

Have you read the 2 volume set Early American Wnters?

That’s a great set of books. 

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Everyone talking about the humidity and yes it's high for this time of year, but it's still nothing compared to the type of humidity we get in the summer when we have oppressive dewpoints in the 70s. Everyone is different, but to me a dewpoint of 64 doesn't feel bad at all. The humidity doesn't start feeling uncomfortable to me until the dewpoint gets to the low 70s. I went for a 7 mile run last night and didn't feel the 64 dewpoint one bit. In fact I liked it because it was nice that it felt warm enough out to be able to run with just a t-shirt on at night this time of year.

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49 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Everyone talking about the humidity and yes it's high for this time of year, but it's still nothing compared to the type of humidity we get in the summer when we have oppressive dewpoints in the 70s. Everyone is different, but to me a dewpoint of 64 doesn't feel bad at all. The humidity doesn't start feeling uncomfortable to me until the dewpoint gets to the low 70s. I went for a 7 mile run last night and didn't feel the 64 dewpoint one bit. In fact I liked it because it was nice that it felt warm enough out to be able to run with just a t-shirt on at night this time of year.

Relative humidity has been very high, hence all of the fog

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

we need a largescale dehumidifier to get rid of this crap and transport it to where wildfires are occurring.

transport that excess rain in the southeast to the wildfire regions! we need a massive transfer of moisture, humanity needs to start geoengineering 

For 25 years I've been saying there should be a national water transport system. Move the excess from wet areas to the dry areas. All I ever hear is that I'm crazy. I'm ok with that.

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Up to 75 here now.   

Just like the summer with the warmest temperatures often missing to the north of NYC Metro.

Chester, Chester Airport, CT. KSNC (NWS/FAA   - OKX)

22 Oct 1:55 pm  77  66   69   S 8    10.00   CLR

590ADA1A-68A5-406F-BD0C-DB6E038A011A.jpeg.8204f5c7ae0dc7f1b5b2beea159f589f.jpeg

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

66F here. Overcast. Been nothing but pleasantly cool. I love AC, but it hasn’t even been a thought. I wonder if we ill get the sun

DPs of 60-65 aren't pleasantly cool.  A/C is on for that reason plus it's 69 at both my weather stations in Nassau County currently.

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6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We’re overdue for a lousy stretch of winters, and the Nina background state in general is lousy for this area. We’ve gotten used to being spoiled. Our one real hope IMO is the NAO developing blocking every once in a while which can keep the SE ridge in check, and that happening in Dec. If we don’t see that the SE ridge dominates and we see constant lake cutters. If we make it to normal snow somehow this season I’d consider that a big win. Should be a huge winter for the upper Midwest, Rockies and NNE. 

I totally agree with you about us being spoiled in the past, I guess it's mother natures way in catching up with us. I'm hoping we do see a (just under 7 inches of snow here in HPN last winter) normal winter. Hey it's 2020, anything is possible these days.

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7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We’re overdue for a lousy stretch of winters, and the Nina background state in general is lousy for this area. We’ve gotten used to being spoiled. Our one real hope IMO is the NAO developing blocking every once in a while which can keep the SE ridge in check, and that happening in Dec. If we don’t see that the SE ridge dominates and we see constant lake cutters. If we make it to normal snow somehow this season I’d consider that a big win. Should be a huge winter for the upper Midwest, Rockies and NNE. 

What is the significance of this?  Not sure I understand what you mean.  Are you implying that in this state we need to have a front loaded winter?  If so, can you please explain this

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Just like the summer with the warmest temperatures often missing to the north of NYC Metro.

Chester, Chester Airport, CT. KSNC (NWS/FAA   - OKX)

22 Oct 1:55 pm  77  66   69   S 8    10.00   CLR

590ADA1A-68A5-406F-BD0C-DB6E038A011A.jpeg.8204f5c7ae0dc7f1b5b2beea159f589f.jpeg

 

 

 

Well that explains it. I've been under a dense overcast all day and this shows that the edge is literally a few miles north of me.Had I gone a few minutes that direction I would have seen sun today like everyone else. 

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36 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Well that explains it. I've been under a dense overcast all day and this shows that the edge is literally a few miles north of me.Had I gone a few minutes that direction I would have seen sun today like everyone else. 

The sun is out anymore so you aren’t missing anything...

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Nice rainstorm

Models are showing this. Hopefully it stays.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.png

As long as it doesn't rain on Halloween....

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Tomorrow will be mild in the East, even as a major early-season snowstorm develops in the Northern Rockies and heads for the Northern Plains. That storm will bring a near-record to record cold air mass into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Numerous single-digit low temperatures will be likely on Sunday morning in parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. A few locations could even experience subzero low temperatures. However, much of this cold air will likely remain confined well west of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through much of the remainder of this month.

A brief shot of cooler air could arrive during the weekend in the Northeast. Toward the end of the month, some of the cooler air from out West could begin to spill into the region. November could commence on a cool note.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter.

The SOI was +9.47.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.239.

On October 21 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.466 (RMM). The October 20-adjusted amplitude was 2.312.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.

From that larger pool of 10 La Niña winters that followed El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more, as was the case this year: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter.

Both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year.  Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were:

1988-89:
Boston: 15.5"
New York City: 8.1"
Philadelphia: 11.2"

1998-99:
Boston: 36.4"
New York City: 12.7"
Philadelphia: 12.5"

This is not cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8°.

 

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7 hours ago, uofmiami said:

DPs of 60-65 aren't pleasantly cool.  A/C is on for that reason plus it's 69 at both my weather stations in Nassau County currently.

We just never got out of that foggy/cloudy morning feel up this way. I know it was much different the further east you got. Looking at the Metar reports, clearing got as far west as BDR. Without the sun, 65 with 100 percent humidity feels cool and damp, not oppressive 

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Wantage NJ  0.01" mist-drizzle here this morning. 

Looks to me like mist at times here through Saturday morning...and clouds predominant through Wednesday with best chance for Partly-Mostly Sunny sky Sunday morning-midday.  As for 1-3" rains early next week.... modeling quite uncertain so am less confident than yesterday, though the option is there.  

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The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.     Making it 52degs., or about -2.0.

62*(97%RH) here at 6am, ground wet, visibility about 5 miles-but not really clear.  63* by 9am, FOG<0.10 mile.

Tropics:    33.2N  61.9W.

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These high dew points and record warm minimums go together. This was the 10th October record warm minimum or tie at Newark since 2014. There have also been numerous 2nd and 3rd place finishes.


Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2020-10-22DateHighest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

10/6 68 in 2017 67 in 1941 66 in 1959
10/7 70 in 2005 67 in 2018 66 in 2007+
10/8 73 in 2017 66 in 2007 65 in 1990+
10/9 72 in 2017 69 in 1990 68 in 1959
10/10 70 in 2018 66 in 2017 66 in 1990
10/11 69 in 1990 68 in 2018 63 in 2017+
10/12 67 in 1990 64 in 1983 64 in 1969
10/13 70 in 1990 67 in 1983 63 in 1954
10/14 67 in 1990 65 in 1970 65 in 1954
10/15 69 in 2014 65 in 2017 64 in 1985
10/16 62 in 1960 60 in 2014 60 in 1992+
10/17 63 in 1947 61 in 2013 60 in 2016
10/18 64 in 1947 63 in 1968 62 in 2016+
10/19 64 in 2016 64 in 2012 63 in 2007+
10/20 66 in 1984 60 in 2016 60 in 1994+
10/21 62 in 1984 62 in 1979 61 in 2020
10/22 64 in 2020 64 in 1979 63 in 1984
10/23 64 in 2007 64 in 1979 62 in 1990+
10/24 66 in 2017 63 in 1959 62 in 2001
10/25 62 in 1975 60 in 1971 58 in 1991
10/26 63 in 1971 62 in 2010 60 in 1946
10/27 63 in 1971 62 in 2010 61 in 1984
10/28 65 in 1971 63 in 1984 59 in 1953
10/29 61 in 2017 61 in 1984 61 in 1947
10/30 60 in 1946 58 in 2019 58 in 1935
10/31 62 in 2019 60 in 1989 59 in 1971+

 

 

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