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October 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


uofmiami
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1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Even though Nassau County is not included in the NWS freeze warning area, it looks pretty likely that many parts of Nassau will have freezing temperatures tonight. Currently 41.8 here.

Same here on si...They still haven't figured out forecasting temps here...we're not urban Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens. One of my pet peeves lol.

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6 minutes ago, doncat said:

Same here on si...They still haven't figured out forecasting temps here...we're not urban Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens. One of my pet peeves lol.

I agree with both of you. Buddies of mine, one on the SI side of the Verrazano and the other just off Hicksville Road, would be scraping away at their windshields when not even a hint of such was evident in my UHI Down Town Brooklyn haven.haven. As always.....

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Today, a cold rain fell in New York City and just outside the City, snow fell. Across parts of northern Pennsylvania, central New York State down into the Hudson Valley and central New England, there was accumulating snow. Boston experienced its biggest October snowfall on record with 4.3" snow. The previous daily record for October was 0.6", which was set in 2011. Boston's previous biggest October snowfall was 1.1", which fell on October 29, 2005.

Boston's Measurable Snowfalls for October are:

October 29, 2005: 1.1"
October 18, 2009: 0.1"
October 29, 2011: 0.4"
October 30, 2011: 0.6"
October 30, 2020: 4.3"

There were similarities between the October 2011 snowfall and today's snowfall in that both the ENSO 1+2 and ENSO 3.4 regions had cold anomalies, the AO and NAO were positive, and the PNA was negative.

October 29-30, 2011 Snowfall:
October ENSO R1+2 Anomaly: -0.60
October ENSO R3.4 Anomaly: -0.97
AO: +0.944
NAO: +0.199
PNA: -0.027

October 30, 2020 Snowfall:
October ENSO R1+2 Anomaly: -1.17 (through week centered around October 23)
October ENSO R3.4 Anomaly: -1.33 (through week centered around October 23)
AO: +1.352
NAO: +0.471
PNA: -0.541

The MJO was in a different phase. During the 2011 snowfall, the MJO was in Phase 2 (Amplitude: 1.253). This time around, it was in Phase 7 (10/29 Amplitude: 1.277).

Select snowfall figures included:

Albany: 1.2"
Binghamton: 0.3"
Boston: 4.3"
Bridgeport: Trace
Foster, RI: 6.2"
Grafton, MA: 7.6"
Hartford: 1.8"
Islip: Trace
Newark: Trace
Providence: 1.1"
Worcester: 4.1"

October will start out with many locations near or below freezing. New York City's suburbs will likely see temperatures fall into the 20s.

November will commence on a cool note with the first week winding up cooler than normal. A surge of cold air could move into the region early next week. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop during the second week of November. The first half of the month will likely wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter.

The SOI was +0.19.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.352.

On October 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.277 (RMM). The October 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.275.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.9°.

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just chatting here.  usually with a big warm front pulling away and the resultant ET strengthening we are treated to strong dry cold winds.  but right now it's so still that it's not cold at all.  i usually hate the day-after of a big storm with clear skies and screaming cold dry winds but here in Piscataway it's still, sorta humid, nice and comfy to be outside.

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The last day of October will average 43degs.     Making it 41degs.

Month to date is 58.5[1.4].       October should end at 57.9[+1.0].

36*(76%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.      40* by 10am.    41* at 11am.        43*(64%) at Noon,

Maybe 4 more 30 Degree mornings before the AN onslaught starts.

5250m 500mb Height predicted for Nov.02----near the record for date?      Skips by too fast W to E to allow a really low T.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_9.png

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Low of 31.3 here. First frost and freeze. Heavy frost on cars, meh frost on grass/plants. Covered patio only hit 34.0, so this was purely radiational.

Unopened Southern Magnolia bloom looks unaffected, should open in the coming days, it’s the final one, this thing has been going since June.

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2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Nassau County was left out of the freeze warning by the NWS. I hope people that had outside plants didn't pay any attention.

Yeah OKX dropped the ball on that one. Even commented on their freeze warning post on FB that upper 20s would happen in Nassau. 

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