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October 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


uofmiami
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The last 5 days of October are averaging 53degs.      Making it 50degs., or about -3.0.

Month to date is:     59.7[+2.0]         October should end at  58.2[+1.3].

Upcoming Rain/BN T potentials:      EURO 2.3"/31*, GFS 1.2"/37*, GEM 3.1"/27*!.

Tropics:  21.1N  88.6W-leaving Yucatan.         56.5N  25.5W

58*(97%RH) here at 6am, cloudy.     55*(85%RH) by 10am.        61* by 4pm.       58* at 9pm.

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Morning thoughts...

Today mostly cloudy with some drizzle and widely scattered showers. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 59°
Newark: 60°
Philadelphia: 63°

A significant precipitation event from Zeta followed by a brief shot of sharply colder air is likely toward the end of the week.

Yesterday, Albuquerque picked up 2.9" snow, which smashed the daily record of 0.1" from 1996. The temperature there fell to 19°, broke the daily record of 25° set in 1908 and tied in 1916, and tied the October record. This morning record cold covered parts of the Plains States. Select records as of 8 am EDT included:

Aberdeen, SD: 1° (old record: 10°, 1919)
Albuquerque: 19° (old record: 21°, 1913) ***Tied Monthly Record***
Denver: 8° (old record: 11°, 1925)
Laramie, WY: -26° (old record: -16°, 2011) ***New Monthly Record***
Rapid City: 2° (old record: 11°, 2019)

 

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8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah after the brief cold shot monday into tuesday, we quickly bounce back to 60 degrees wednesday and that looks like the start of a prolonged warmer than normal pattern.

 

8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah after the brief cold shot monday into tuesday, we quickly bounce back to 60 degrees wednesday and that looks like the start of a prolonged warmer than normal pattern.

 

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we get 2 decent cold shots before the big NAO reversal and moderating temperatures.

 

Yep, unfavorable mjo after the 7th with strengthening Pv will make the flow more zonal. Only good news is the vortex will not be going towards AK like the eps was showing a few days ago. 

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19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

 

Yep, unfavorable mjo after the 7th with strengthening Pv will make the flow more zonal. Only good news is the vortex will not be going towards AK like the eps was showing a few days ago. 

Yeah, looks like the vortex will verify over Greenland instead of Alaska.

New run

83901A03-245B-41C0-8CA0-3B36656B124D.thumb.png.c28003ff238e478ad57c2d4c3189485d.png

Old run

BAD7C7E1-4F0E-4EE9-AB69-AE696616D00E.thumb.png.8585a9b0e11e940c62b15f23fae234ed.png

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

 

Yep, unfavorable mjo after the 7th with strengthening Pv will make the flow more zonal. Only good news is the vortex will not be going towards AK like the eps was showing a few days ago. 

Maybe that's good news. The last few years with cold/snow in November led to a torch/snowless winter. 

At least the pattern looks different for once.

Of course it could end up like 11/12 where every month torches.

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9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Maybe that's good news. The last few years with cold/snow in November led to a torch/snowless winter. 

At least the pattern looks different for once.

Of course it could end up like 11/12 where every month torches.

Yeah I've learned early/mid Nov cold generally is worthless-too early for snow and then the pattern flips by Mid Dec and it's torch city

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56 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The ridging by the Aleutians I think helped keep it away from AK 

Yeah, the PNA is also more positive than we typically see during a La Niña September and October. That big drought ridge over the West continues to make headlines.  You can see that the ridge in that location doesn’t really match La Ninas in the last 20 years.

59FD385D-ADB1-4914-8A18-861D78B2AF41.gif.618d0445eb79581564b163914e659509.gif

4F0EF233-AC1B-4B70-AB5C-E4E8D4F06CC4.png.b28ea6914f840a2670322d1a88fcd15c.png


 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the PNA is also more positive than we typically see during a La Niña September and October. That big drought ridge over the West continues to make headlines.  You can see that the ridge in that location doesn’t really match La Ninas in the last 20 years.

::Scratches head::

This year's Sept./Oct. composite actually seems directly opposite to how Niña's typically behave in Canada and the NATL too.  Do we know why?  And are we going to wait around all winter for a Niña atmospheric "coupling" (hope I'm using the term correctly) like we did last year with the Niño?

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27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the PNA is also more positive than we typically see during a La Niña September and October. That big drought ridge over the West continues to make headlines.  You can see that the ridge in that location doesn’t really match La Ninas in the last 20 years.

59FD385D-ADB1-4914-8A18-861D78B2AF41.gif.618d0445eb79581564b163914e659509.gif

4F0EF233-AC1B-4B70-AB5C-E4E8D4F06CC4.png.b28ea6914f840a2670322d1a88fcd15c.png


 

 

 

Yep, I honestly think that its a response from all the warm waters off the coast of CA. Typical Niña has cold waters there that makes a -pna more favorable 

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38 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

::Scratches head::

This year's Sept./Oct. composite actually seems directly opposite to how Niña's typically behave in Canada and the NATL too.  Do we know why?  And are we going to wait around all winter for a Niña atmospheric "coupling" (hope I'm using the term correctly) like we did last year with the Niño?

Maybe it’s related to the record WPAC warm pool? I read some papers on how the anomalous ridging near the West Coast since 2013 could be related to the record SSTs in the Tropical WPAC. Then there were other papers that suggest a link between the record Pacific basin SSTs and the low Arctic sea ice.

 

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GFS has 12 60-Degree Days out of the next 16 days, and no precipitation for the first 10 days of November.       Gonna bea  bore if this is correct.

Typical 500mb Heights during first 12 days of November would be 5680m to 5640m, and for 850mb T's   +5C to +3C.       Starting November 3, these seem to be exceeded regularly.

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Temperatures again rose in the upper 50s and lower 60s today. Tomorrow will feature similar temperatures, but a much colder air mass will move into the region later this week.

Out West, there was again widespread record cold. Hebron, Colorado recorded a temperature of -33° this morning. Select records included:

Aberdeen, SD: 1° (old record: 10°, 1919)
Albuquerque: 19° (old record: 21°, 1913) ***Tied Monthly Record***
Cheyenne: 0° (old record: 5°, 1925)
Denver: 8° (old record: 11°, 1925)
Laramie, WY: -26° (old record: -16°, 2011) ***New Monthly Record***
Rapid City: 2° (old record: 11°, 2019)
Tucson: 32° (old record: 35°, 1970)

Zeta will very likely make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast tomorrow and then turn north and eastward and then exit from an area running from the Delmarva Peninsula to perhaps the New Jersey coast. As a result, Thursday into part of Friday could see a potentially significant precipitation event in the region. A general 1"-3" rainfall appears likely.

The potential exists that cold air from eastern Canada could be drawn southward to produce at least some snowfall in an area running from northern Pennsylvania, across central New York State, and into central New England. Behind the storm, the coldest air of the season will briefly push into the region.

November will likely commence on a cool note with the first week winding up cooler than normal. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop during the second week of November.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter.

The SOI was -3.48.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.257. That is the highest figure since the AO was +3.174 on March 25, 2020.  

On October 26 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.940 (RMM). The October 25-adjusted amplitude was 2.000.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0°.

 

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