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October 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


uofmiami
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6 minutes ago, dWave said:

Breaks of sun here now. Days got switched it seems. Yday was suppose to be the day with most breaks of sun, I saw none. Today is suppose to be almost no chance, and sunshine is breaking through now. 

Just have to get lucky where a sucker hole opens up.   Looking at visible sat would think most of us see some break of sun later as the cloud deck is breaking up a bit.

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17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Just have to get lucky where a sucker hole opens up.   Looking at visible sat would think most of us see some break of sun later as the cloud deck is breaking up a bit.

Agreed, fortunate here again today with a mix of clouds and sun, looks like another nice afternoon is instore 70/64. 

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Record high temperatures today well away from the marine influence. Pretty impressive for Syracuse to reach 80° in late October.

 

F17B426D-5CF8-4F93-9357-6F43EC741291.png.9bf7ab1b273bb0561788d0340e560e49.png

Almanac for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY
October 23, 2020
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature M 57 77 in 1991 34 in 1969


 

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nice rainstorm for the coast with snow for the far interior on the gfs. Models are starting to bring back the gulf low they were once  showing.

Just give us some rain 

This will be a nice test to see if the primary storm tracks that have been locked in last few years can show more variation. The last 2 cold seasons were dominated by cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks. The models have a SW bowling ball closed low that ejects to the east next week. At the same time, we have very strong PAC Jet along the Northern Tier. So it will be interesting to see if this low can run far enough north for a significant event here or it gets suppressed south like the 12z Euro. Benchmark track lows have been a rarity here since March 2018 ended.


631EA127-9E7D-4F46-AC4A-C9B6D4F5EEC9.gif.401cbd7ffbfb6fe692d9f967ce5644fd.gif

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Record high temperatures today well away from the marine influence. Pretty impressive for Syracuse to reach 80° in late October.

 

F17B426D-5CF8-4F93-9357-6F43EC741291.png.9bf7ab1b273bb0561788d0340e560e49.png

Almanac for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY
October 23, 2020
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature M 57 77 in 1991 34 in 1969


 

Where do you get those charts from?

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This will be a nice test to see if the primary storm tracks that have been locked in last few years can show more variation. The last 2 cold seasons were dominated by cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks. The models have a SW bowling ball closed low that ejects to the east next week. At the same time, we have very strong PAC Jet along the Northern Tier. So it will be interesting to see if this low can run far enough north for a significant event here or it gets suppressed south like the 12z Euro. Benchmark track lows have been a rarity here since March 2018 ended.


631EA127-9E7D-4F46-AC4A-C9B6D4F5EEC9.gif.401cbd7ffbfb6fe692d9f967ce5644fd.gif

 

The eps mean  is well north of the op this afternoon 

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57 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Where do you get those charts from?

Meteostar

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KSYR

 

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The eps mean  is well north of the op this afternoon 

I just saw them. The control and other members are more amped than the OP. Even if the low ends up hugging, it would be nice to see see a southern stream low phase or not get suppressed.

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The storm responsible for heavy snow in the Northern Rockies tonight and tomorrow will bring a near-record to record cold air mass into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Numerous single-digit low temperatures will be likely on Sunday morning in parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. A few locations could even experience subzero low temperatures. The cold will then expand into the Central Plains for Monday and Tuesday. However, much of this cold air will likely remain confined west of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions until the closing days of this month.

A brief but fairly sharp shot of cooler air could arrive during the weekend in the Northeast. During the closing days of the the month, some of the cold air from out West will spill into the region. November could commence on a cool note.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter.

The SOI was +9.22.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.021.

On October 22 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.543 (RMM). The October 21-adjusted amplitude was 2.469.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.

From that larger pool of 10 La Niña winters that followed El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more, as was the case this year: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter.

Both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year.  Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were:

1988-89:
Boston: 15.5"
New York City: 8.1"
Philadelphia: 11.2"

1998-99:
Boston: 36.4"
New York City: 12.7"
Philadelphia: 12.5"

This is not cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°.

 

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4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The storm responsible for heavy snow in the Northern Rockies tonight and tomorrow will bring a near-record to record cold air mass into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Numerous single-digit low temperatures will be likely on Sunday morning in parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. A few locations could even experience subzero low temperatures. The cold will then expand into the Central Plains for Monday and Tuesday. However, much of this cold air will likely remain confined west of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions until the closing days of this month.

A brief but fairly sharp shot of cooler air could arrive during the weekend in the Northeast. During the closing days of the the month, some of the cold air from out West will spill into the region. November could commence on a cool note.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter.

The SOI was +9.22.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.021.

On October 22 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.543 (RMM). The October 21-adjusted amplitude was 2.469.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.

From that larger pool of 10 La Niña winters that followed El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more, as was the case this year: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter.

Both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year.  Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were:

1988-89:
Boston: 15.5"
New York City: 8.1"
Philadelphia: 11.2"

1998-99:
Boston: 36.4"
New York City: 12.7"
Philadelphia: 12.5"

This is not cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°.

 

Amazing Don, those 3rd week in October single digit lows may be lower than the lowest CPK reading for our entire cold season. Serves us right for having an affair with a warm ocean. As always ....

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The last 8 days of October are averaging 55deg., making it 50degs., or about -3.0.

Month to date is  60.4[+2.3].        Oct. should end at about 57.7[+0.8].

62*(97%RH) here at 6am, overcast.         64*(94%RH) by Noon.          68* between 2pm-5pm with a bit of sun and falling RH, now 68% at 5pm.        54*(55%RH} by 10pm.

Tropics:   36.7N  62.3W.

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