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October 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


uofmiami
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6 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

That would be just fine--

If the pandemic gets worse, as currently predicted it will, we need all the help we can get

Yep, honestly a warm winter this year wouldn’t be a bad thing (although in a Nina the cold is usually just dislocated west). But like most Ninas we will have to hope the snow happens in December and we get some help from the NAO. If not it’s a repeat of last year with an endless cutter parade. 

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, is this going to be a "dirty" warm up, in theY sense that while it will be warm, we wont be getting much sunshine?

I will be back on Long Island this afternoon.

 

Yes, this is correct. That's why the temperature will likely peak in the lower 70s this week rather than the upper 70s or even lower 80s.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Des Moines, Iowa with 7 inches of snow this morning 

That area was in a perfect spot to take advantage of the strong block near Greenland this month. The strong WAR seems to have kept the TPV locked in along the west side of Hudson Bay. So a strong -NAO/-AO isn’t much of a help for us if the WAR is too amplified.

FBBFA369-1BB0-43C0-80EC-749E1F0A6E88.gif.44038d3a530d6f2605157670f605b5a2.gif

 

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33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That area was in a perfect spot to take advantage of the strong block near Greenland this month. The strong WAR seems to have kept the TPV locked in along the west side of Hudson Bay. So a strong -NAO/-AO isn’t much of a help for us if the WAR is too amplified.

FBBFA369-1BB0-43C0-80EC-749E1F0A6E88.gif.44038d3a530d6f2605157670f605b5a2.gif

 

Until further notice it looks mild here with winter in the upper Midwest. The good news is Canada looks cold so hopefully it builds a base there.

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Until further notice it looks mild here with winter in the upper Midwest. The good news is Canada looks cold so hopefully it builds a base there.

For us, we'll need to see the SE ridge get beaten back and hope for some arctic blocking.  Otherwise it's cutter city.

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

For us, we'll need to see the SE ridge get beaten back and hope for some arctic blocking.  Otherwise it's cutter city.

It’s October so I don’t expect some perfect snow pattern lol. Perhaps when the mjo moves into 7/8 we see more of a colder pattern to start November.  
 

As of now, just a typical Niña pattern. I do think it’s a good sign to see Canada cold and warm waters off the west coast. 

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58 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Until further notice it looks mild here with winter in the upper Midwest. The good news is Canada looks cold so hopefully it builds a base there.

Yeah, looks like this warmer WAR pattern should persist at least into the last week of October.


197FB9F5-1B8E-4BB9-A214-B5CDD54E11C3.thumb.png.5326b55ad228d36d563c59b5beaeeada.png

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GFS gets the last laugh guys!        Starting tomorrow it has 10-straight 70-Degree Days and the cold is pushed ahead another day to the 30th.    

It is never getting here.    IT IS NOT OF THE BODY----IT MUST BE ABSORBED............It Is The Will of La Nina!  >>>>>Thank you Star Trek.

Meanwhile Billings, Montana will probably have as much winter weather between Oct. 22-27,  as we will have all winter here.         15" of snow and some near zero readings over that span.

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Warmer conditions returned today. Temperatures will likely remain mainly above normal through the remainder of the week. One or more days could see much above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter.

The SOI was -6.71.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.163.

On October 18 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.400 (RMM). The October 17-adjusted amplitude was 2.592.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.

In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool.

Moreover, among the former pool, both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year.  Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were:

1988-89:
Boston: 15.5"
New York City: 8.1"
Philadelphia: 11.2"

1998-99:
Boston: 36.4"
New York City: 12.7"
Philadelphia: 12.5"

None of this is cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8°.

Finally, Arctic sea ice extent remained just below 5 million square kilometers on October 18 (JAXA), which further extended 2020's record for the latest such occurrence of Arctic sea ice extent below 5 million square kilometers.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 65degs.       Making it 60degs., or about +5.0.

Tropics:     25.8N  55.1W.

62*(95%RH) here at 6am.      Was foggy/rain around 8am.    65* by 11am.        66* by 1pm.        67* by 2pm      68* by 2:30pm.        69* by 3:00pm.        70* by 4pm.   (mostly sunny here since 2pm).         63* by 9pm.

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The PDO isn’t following the La Niña playbook this fall. This was one of the biggest PDO increases during a La Niña in October. But as we have seen since the record North Pacific warming in 2013, these monthly values can really jump around a lot. Last winter we went from positive  in December to negative during January and February. It all comes down to how the North Pacific ridge behaves.

E09E873C-801F-4298-952A-48F3D152201E.png.b6cdf47af0679f8e01e12677852311ad.png
 

 

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48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The PDO isn’t following the La Niña playbook this fall. This was one of the biggest PDO increases during a La Niña in October. But as we have seen since the record North Pacific warming in 2013, these monthly values can really jump around a lot. Last winter we went from positive  in December to negative during January and February. It all comes down to how the North Pacific ridge behaves.

E09E873C-801F-4298-952A-48F3D152201E.png.b6cdf47af0679f8e01e12677852311ad.png
 

 

Yeah, very uncommon to have all that warm water off the west coast in a strong Niña. This can change quickly with wind shifts but if it stays he could help this winter from being snowless.

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Good morning,  Looks like some drizzle and showers have occurred NYC area early today.  Suspect more coming tomorrow morning,  and am not seeing a lot of sun or non marine influenced flow for our NYC area the next 2 or 3 days.  Maybe Saturday for a real warm day?  Nights will be very mild for sure.  A dirty pattern I think.  

Epsilon doing it's thing per NHC and still 3-5 members of the GEFS trying to get something going near FL around the 25th-26th-the previous NHC 10% hold there is realistic. 

In the meantime...late 25th-27th... seems like we're going to be in quasi stationary baroclinic zone with a tropical connection via PWAT.  Some generous precipitation anticipated ne USA... not impossible to see 1-3" in this period.  For now we'll go with WPC but in a positive tilt situation...whereever the frontal boundary lays out,  thats going to be the focus of decent qpf. 

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29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, very uncommon to have all that warm water off the west coast in a strong Niña. This can change quickly with wind shifts but if it stays he could help this winter from being snowless.

At least for a La Niña October, that drought ridge along the West Coast is out of place.


E222AAD6-4A2C-4110-B8F4-A01FE0039977.gif.077efa7713dfa06884933200d922ac0c.gif

B6C82C45-B07B-47CC-9587-B6440BD8FA08.png.b3cc159133026b6a1391e3b4ef1d0df8.png

 

 

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