donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Morning thoughts... At 8 am, rain associated with developing low pressure along a slow moving cold front extended northward into southeastern Pennsylvania and extreme southern New Jersey. That slow-moving front will move across the region today and tonight. Periods of rain will develop as the day progresses. The temperature will fall from present levels once the rain arrives. Afterward, temperatures will likely be confined to the 50s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region from 8 am onward include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 60° A mainly fair but cool weekend is in store. Warmer temperatures should return early next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Good Friday morning everyone, No topic for me on todays rainfall... helpful for sure. Am expecting basically 1/2 to 2" depending on repeat episodes of showers. Note impossible to see 2.5" but to me this is relatively normal. I am paying attention to the pattern around October 25-27. Zeta (my expectation only-if the earlier near Bermuda system ~10/20-22 doesn't get named Epsilon, then I suspect the FL system around 24th-25th would be Epsilon). We'll see if the 500 MB pattern adjusts to a sharper trough near 80-85W longitude as the EPS is starting to show recently. If not, then no problem. NAEFS shows something along the se USA coast then peeling out to sea northeastward. VERY VERY early (9 days) but based on multi op models and multiple ensembles, am glad am not cruising Bermuda to Key West...I think its going to be a little on the rough side as opposed to typical daily tropical. Again, only what I'm looking for. It still may not pan out. 654A/16 Very interesting that the models keep showing a possibility of a tropical low coming up here with snow on the backside for the far interior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 The WAR continues to set records. A 5 SD positive 500 height anomaly near Newfoundland for this time of year. The anomalous 592 DM ridge for mid-October will help slow down the front today for soaking rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 That 10/24 - 10/28 period could see some wild weather if the long range guidance progs are correct, not before about 7 - 8 days of warmth with bif ridge along the EC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 39 minutes ago, SACRUS said: That 10/24 - 10/28 period could see some wild weather if the long range guidance progs are correct, not before about 7 - 8 days of warmth with bif ridge along the EC. Yeah, next week looking like an amazing week with that ridge. 70 degree weather all week. Could be the last week of the season for outdoor activities in consistently warm temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 55 and rain, welcome to October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Very interesting that the models keep showing a possibility of a tropical low coming up here with snow on the backside for the far interior. So much weaker on the EURO..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 46 minutes ago, SACRUS said: That 10/24 - 10/28 period could see some wild weather if the long range guidance progs are correct, not before about 7 - 8 days of warmth with bif ridge along the EC. what kind of wild weather are we talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 3 hours ago, wdrag said: Good Friday morning everyone, No topic for me on todays rainfall... helpful for sure. Am expecting basically 1/2 to 2" depending on repeat episodes of showers. Note impossible to see 2.5" but to me this is relatively normal. I am paying attention to the pattern around October 25-27. Zeta (my expectation only-if the earlier near Bermuda system ~10/20-22 doesn't get named Epsilon, then I suspect the FL system around 24th-25th would be Epsilon). We'll see if the 500 MB pattern adjusts to a sharper trough near 80-85W longitude as the EPS is starting to show recently. If not, then no problem. NAEFS shows something along the se USA coast then peeling out to sea northeastward. VERY VERY early (9 days) but based on multi op models and multiple ensembles, am glad am not cruising Bermuda to Key West...I think its going to be a little on the rough side as opposed to typical daily tropical. Again, only what I'm looking for. It still may not pan out. 654A/16 sounds like you expect that system to be along the SE coast and then go out to sea from there, Walt, a la Matthew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... At 8 am, rain associated with developing low pressure along a slow moving cold front extended northward into southeastern Pennsylvania and extreme southern New Jersey. That slow-moving front will move across the region today and tonight. Periods of rain will develop as the day progresses. The temperature will fall from present levels once the rain arrives. Afterward, temperatures will likely be confined to the 50s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region from 8 am onward include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 60° A mainly fair but cool weekend is in store. Warmer temperatures should return early next week. How much rainfall expected for this system Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: sounds like you expect that system to be along the SE coast and then go out to sea from there, Walt, a la Matthew? At this distant view, I take more or less what the ensembles give me... and that yes... the TC of whatever sort bothers FL around the 25th-26th (could be west coast) but eventually heads ne along the SE USA coast and then too far s and e of us BUT, tropical systems also alter the upper air patterns---not exactly sure if it's the chicken or the egg- but I expect more ridging to develop in the W ATLC and more troughing near 80-85W and therefore an option for a coastal hugger up the E coast. For this situation, UNTIL i see no storm develop, or the trough remains as its now modeled-too much 240 degrees flow up here (instead potential 200 degrees flow)- I wont lose sight of that option. Let's see what evolves. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Very interesting that the models keep showing a possibility of a tropical low coming up here with snow on the backside for the far interior. Remember Sandy? Different pattern but W VA mountains I think got hammered with 2 feet (EC had it several days in advance). Right now I need to go one step at a time... I want to see the Bermuda storm happen (only a hybrid? in stead of named event) and then we need something decent near FL by the 25th-26th. I do recall someone posting very recently about GFS physics being biased cold, later in its future forecast steps... so for now, I have to think of climo, cold biases and lack of phasing potential--- all not in our favor but it is a member of the collective ensemble. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: How much rainfall expected for this system Don? From Philadelphia to New York City and much of Long Island 0.50"-1.50". Eastern New England and perhaps eastern Suffolk County, 1.00"-2.00" with some locally higher amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, wdrag said: Remember Sandy? Different pattern but W VA mountains I think got hammered with 2 feet (EC had it several days in advance). Right now I need to go one step at a time... I want to see the Bermuda storm happen (only a hybrid? in stead of named event) and then we need something decent near FL by the 25th-26th. I do recall someone posting very recently about GFS physics being biased cold, later in its future forecast steps... so for now, I have to think of climo, cold biases and lack of phasing potential--- all not in our favor but it is a member of the collective ensemble. I think the Euro would have produced snow for the far interior also. That's an impressive trough on the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 todays system reminds me of a few that happened during the 1995-96 season...Late November 1995 and early February 1996... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Remember Sandy? Different pattern but W VA mountains I think got hammered with 2 feet (EC had it several days in advance). Right now I need to go one step at a time... I want to see the Bermuda storm happen (only a hybrid? in stead of named event) and then we need something decent near FL by the 25th-26th. I do recall someone posting very recently about GFS physics being biased cold, later in its future forecast steps... so for now, I have to think of climo, cold biases and lack of phasing potential--- all not in our favor but it is a member of the collective ensemble. Makes me wonder if the Bermuda storm will cause the ridge to pump up stronger and to the west, thus increasing the chances for the second TC to hug the coast rather than safely go out to sea SE of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 42 minutes ago, uncle W said: todays system reminds me of a few that happened during the 1995-96 season...Late November 1995 and early February 1996... Yes, lots of events that got stronger as they approached the coast- we saw them in March and April too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: From Philadelphia to New York City and much of Long Island 0.50"-1.50". Eastern New England and perhaps eastern Suffolk County, 1.00"-2.00" with some locally higher amounts. I guess we haven't had our first noreaster yet but this sure feels like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Looks like the parallel GFS may have gotten a fix for the cold bias. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Just misses the phase on the gfs 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Phasers are not easy... so fwiw... I like them but so easy for them to miss or come in pieces. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, wdrag said: Phasers are not easy... so fwiw... I like them but so easy for them to miss or come in pieces. Should be interesting to watch nonetheless. Strong WAR could mean this ends up close to the coast but many days out of course. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Picked up 0.70" of rain so far today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Pouring last few hours with 1.10" so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Looks like the parallel GFS may have gotten a fix for the cold bias. they were reading our posts ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Should be interesting to watch nonetheless. Strong WAR could mean this ends up close to the coast but many days out of course. GFS has this plowing into CC at 950 mb, the Euro should be interesting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Just misses the phase on the gfs if this is "just missing the phase" what would full phasing look like? this looks pretty exciting as is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like the parallel GFS may have gotten a fix for the cold bias. Let’s hope so. The winter could be revealing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 EC is seeming to come aboard now with two storms... still lackluster on the FL storm but at least it admits something. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 16, 2020 Share Posted October 16, 2020 Probably 0.10” here so far as this batch goes west of us over NJ and NYC. Hopefully the next batch can catch us up and we don’t get the split-shaft with it going east of here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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