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October 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread


uofmiami
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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

I wonder if a specific cause can be found for the record -NAO /-AO from June 2009 through January 2011?Somebody should do a research study on that. You know something unusual was underway when it started with such cool weather for June and July. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31
Missing Count
1 1881-07-31 69.4 0
2 1903-07-31 70.0 0
3 2009-07-31 70.1 0
4 1902-07-31 70.3 0
5 1914-07-31 70.5 0

Like you said we may be switching to a pattern of record blocks in different parts of the world.  If so, maybe in a few years, we will get this kind of pattern again, even if it has diminishing returns with a warming background state.

 

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Like you said we may be switching to a pattern of record blocks in different parts of the world.  If so, maybe in a few years, we will get this kind of pattern again, even if it has diminishing returns with a warming background state.

 

I think we have quite a ways to go before even a cold airmass and good storm track means mix or rain still for most. 

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27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The S/W and rain moving in resembles a SWFE winter event. We even have the big high NE of us as an overrunning setup. 

weird on different precip maps, I've seen western NJ and eastern PA jackpotting and on some I see Long Island jackpotting lol.

also how high will the winds be?  This wont even be a TS when it gets here and yet I see forecasts of high winds?

 

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17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

weird on different precip maps, I've seen western NJ and eastern PA jackpotting and on some I see Long Island jackpotting lol.

also how high will the winds be?  This wont even be a TS when it gets here and yet I see forecasts of high winds?

 

The pressure gradient will probably help. NAM has 30-40mph winds near the coast as it moves in, enough for a wind advisory. Quite winter-like, you can even see the cold air damming from the high-baggy isobars. Of course it won't be cold enough for snow, but inland it might be in the 40s for the storm. 2-3 months from now it would be snow/ice to rain for the coast and a wintry mess inland deal. 

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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The pressure gradient will probably help. NAM has 30-40mph winds near the coast as it moves in, enough for a wind advisory. Quite winter-like, you can even see the cold air damming from the high-baggy isobars. Of course it won't be cold enough for snow, but inland it might be in the 40s for the storm. 2-3 months from now it would be snow/ice to rain for the coast and a wintry mess inland deal. 

sounds like the kind of storm we might see a lot of this winter

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

sounds like the kind of storm we might see a lot of this winter

Another Nina-yeah, likely :( (we've essentially been in a Nina background state for over a decade other than the super Nino 15-16 which it took the super Nino to snap the Nina for that one season). Hopefully we can get some other factors like the MJO which wrecked our last 2 winters and NAO to help out and not have every storm be a cutter. 10-11 is an example of how the NAO can salvage a Nina winter but that was an extreme example. I'd be thrilled if we make it to average snow or a little better, like how 12-13 was generally. Lot of downside though if the MJO stays in phase 4-6 again and the NAO/AO Is mostly positive. The hyper-roaring Pacific jet flooding the US with mild garbage is never good either. N New England/Midwest/West favored. 

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The next 8 days are averaging 64degs.       Making it 59degs., or just Normal.

60*(78%RH) here at 6am, m. clear, haze.       66* by 1pm, filtered sun, cool breeze around here.

From Delta's remains:     EURO. 2.0",    GFS 1.3",     GEM 1.0",      SREF Plumes  2.0".    EURO likes the 17th. for a separate event too.

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Looks like we will continue to see the coolest temperatures relative to the averages remaining to our west. Ridging is holding in place near the West Coast and just to the east of New England. Matches the areas of the warmest SST departures.

Oct 1-7

663EB77B-5064-453E-81BC-1F1A9A51ABA5.gif.5e6c4543cf54270c84bb5c006b8d531f.gif
 

EPS forecast more of the same

7E2B93F0-2CD3-4F2C-B730-5D4F2CEAD407.thumb.png.a105e1b0068dbbfb8f12b47ee26a9946.png

Current SST departures

 

A9561E8E-C666-4132-8ED2-E56E18BB8ACD.png.f68a6b621e80cba8ebb5257b6e771def.png

 

 

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly sunny and very warm for the season. Temperatures will rise into the middle and even upper 70s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°
Newark: 78°
Philadelphia: 76°

Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Delta will impact the region from late tomorrow through Tuesday. The potential exists for a widespread 1"-3" rainfall with some locally higher amounts.

 

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65 and mostly cloudy here.  Satellite last night hinted that today was not likely going to be mostly sunny as some late forecasts showed.  Despite that it will be very warm today and should we get some longer peaks of sun it could push upper 70s in places.  Clouds continue tomorrow as delta moves closer.  Bet on the rains always a good bet after prolonged dry period.  Supect >2 inches area wide Sunday PM into Tue AM.  Drier again mid week.  Colder next weekend with  ECM again showing widespread frost/freezed for 48 hours Sat and Sun. Beyond there a back and forth but bias overall warm in the east with troughh further inland.

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53 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Cloudier and cooler than expected

Been the theme on some of the close in forecasts past few weekends.  Satellite loop told a different story last night and early this AM.  Clouds for most the day i80 south.

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Is that smoke or mostly clouds over us?    May be brightening up soon.      T struggling to get to 70 here---now 68 at 2:40pm. 

Made it to 70 around 4pm, some weak rays of sun appeared too.        Topped out at 71 around 5pm here.

20201010_1821_sat_vis_alb.jpg

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