Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Tropical Storm Beta


Windspeed
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z GFS is stronger (low-end cane), throws on the brakes just barely offshore, really rakes the coast of Texas with torrential rain as it drifts north and then northeast along the coast.

Kinda surprised no one has dropped the “Harvey” analog yet.. 

I haven’t looked into it but I believe Harvey also occurred during a significant -NAO, which seems we will likely have this time as well. 

BB96E997-5F85-4F84-BD39-EFC3B8BE90D1.png

C7122E91-C383-4493-BD42-C67ECA463ABB.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Kinda surprised no one has dropped the “Harvey” analog yet.. 

I haven’t looked into it but I believe Harvey also occurred during a significant -NAO, which seems we will likely have this time as well. 

 

 

The amount of spread in the ensembles even 24-48hr out is pretty amazing. That said, if this thing manages to stay offshore after the westward turn, it'll have a favorable period for intensification. Oh, where have we heard that one before?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Recon has found the center a fair bit farther east and north than the NHC 4pm advisory.  This could make it more likely it'll come to a halt before reaching the Texas coast.

Edit:  I just realized there could be an elongation farther southward.  Let's see what recon finds.

Edit:  Nope, that was the center... nothing farther south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, brentrich said:

So is there a possible we will be seeing a major hurricane in the brewing? 

I don’t think so. However, the environment around this system is complex. Shear will decrease, then change vector, then really decrease, but extremely dry air will be a factor, as will land. There will be moments this system can take advantage of, but in talking about majors, you usually see less barriers. I learned a lesson with sally though: never write off a gulf system. That storm was 6 hours from being a major, amazingly. I don’t think the ceiling is high for Beta, given the above reasons. I’m not locked into that call, though, as this is an extremely challenging environment 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I don’t think so. However, the environment around this system is complex. Shear will decrease, then change vector, then really decrease, but extremely dry air will be a factor, as will land. There will be moments this system can take advantage of, but in talking about majors, you usually see less barriers. I learned a lesson with sally though: never write off a gulf system. That storm was 6 hours from being a major, amazingly. I don’t think the ceiling is high for Beta, given the above reasons. I’m not locked into that call, though, as this is an extremely challenging environment 

nice post, thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Center completely exposed, the latest HRRR has it too strong right now and even with that it weakens it to 40kts at landfall. So even the big flood type scenario is looking iffy right now.

Uh...can we even say that yet? Isn't this thing supposed to be meandering for several days before landfall?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Making declarations on lower flooding potential for a slow moving / stalling system in the gulf seems odd.  Rainfall amounts are not tied to windspeed in any way...unless you are thinking the storm will be a eastern heavy system throughout it's life?

Latest tracks are wild for this one.  GFS hits corpus and Houston both from the east...so 2020

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Making declarations on lower flooding potential for a slow moving / stalling system in the gulf seems odd.  Rainfall amounts are not tied to windspeed in any way...unless you are thinking the storm will be a eastern heavy system throughout it's life?

Latest tracks are wild for this one.  GFS hits corpus and Houston both from the east...so 2020

Am guessing the expectation is drier air will cut down on the precip?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NHC Disco/Update...

Beta has generally changed little overnight.  The storm remains
strongly sheared with deep convection confined to the north and
northeast of the low-level center.  A combination of flight-level,
SFMR, and dropsonde data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters a few
hours ago supports keeping the 50-kt initial intensity.  It should
be noted that the wind field is quite asymmetric with the strongest
winds located in the deep convection and farther to the northeast
behind an old frontal boundary.

Beta was caught in weak steering currents for nearly a day, but
it now seems to be moving.  The current initial motion estimate is
west-northwestward at 3 kt. A mid-level ridge currently centered
over the southwestern U.S. is forecast to slide eastward, which
should cause Beta to move a little faster to the west-northwestward
later today.  This motion should continue for a couple of days,
taking the storm to the Texas coast on Monday or Monday night.
After Beta moves inland, the ridge is forecast to move away as a
shortwave trough approaches from the west.  This change in the
pattern is expected to cause Beta to slow down, or even stall, on
Tuesday and then turn northeastward after that.  The NHC track
forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and it is
fairly similar to the previous prediction.

The tropical storm is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of
southwesterly wind shear and a fair amount of dry air, especially
on the west side of the circulation.  Since the shear is not
expected to decrease much while Beta moves into an even drier and
more stable air mass, little change in intensity is expected
through landfall in 36 to 48 hours.  After Beta moves inland,
steady weakening is forecast due to a combination of land
interaction, dry air, and an increase in southwesterly shear.  The
models are in fair agreement, and this forecast is largely an
update of the previous one.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The surface circulation is definitely taking jumps west closer to that vigorous mid level circulation per recon. LLC reformation appears to be underway. There is still shear and dry stable air but perhaps if Beta can form a core that will allow it to fight back. At any rate, this is a sign that Beta could have a period of intensification this afternoon.aca1b66385c79eb2d050573d56653511.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The surface circulation is definitely taking jumps west closer to that vigorous mid level circulation per recon. LLC reformation appears to be underway. There is still shear and dry stable air but perhaps if Beta can form a core that will allow it to fight back. At any rate, this is a sign that Beta could have a period of intensification this afternoon.aca1b66385c79eb2d050573d56653511.jpg

Beta House giving it the ol' college try.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Teddy not getting any action so will ask here

How large will the offshore and onshore waves be from Teddy for MD beaches and what is time frame?

thanks 

 

 

That's not how this works. It's quiet at the moment because forecast and intensity trends are fairly locked down and there is no land interaction other than some marginal effects on Bermuda currently. But that doesn't mean you should ask the question in another storm thread. Delete your post and put it in the correct thread. Someone will notice.
  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...