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Upstate/Eastern New York


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7 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I have no idea how people are already calling off winter on November 17th...What exactly is this based on?  Some lousy teleconnections for the next 4 weeks (which still doesnt even get us into the actual calendar start of winter)??  Aside from one really warm week in November, things are right on track in regards to a typical year.  I think I'm -1.5" in the snowfall dept according to climatology.    

For my area (where we get very little meaningful lake effect), I look forward to February and March; the big months for Synoptic whoppers.  We haven't even got to the starting line yet and people are writing off this winter.  Weird wild stuff indeed, get a grip everyone..

Though I do fully agree with you that we shouldn't be signing off just yet. I don't necessarily blame anyone for being gun shy, based on our winters have been basically all down hill since the winter of 2014/2015.

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12 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I have no idea how people are already calling off winter on November 17th...What exactly is this based on?  Some lousy teleconnections for the next 4 weeks (which still doesnt even get us into the actual calendar start of winter)??  Aside from one really warm week in November, things are right on track in regards to a typical year.  I think I'm -1.5" in the snowfall dept according to climatology.    

For my area (where we get very little meaningful lake effect), I look forward to February and March; the big months for Synoptic whoppers.  We haven't even got to the starting line yet and people are writing off this winter.  Weird wild stuff indeed, get a grip everyone..

I think its all preference. Last year seemed like a bad winter but for me it was fine, started off fast with November snowstorms and cold, and then off again/on again threading the needle and ending up with around 48" of snow. Id rather that instead of losing November-January to tiny nothing events surrounded by warmth and then getting 3-4  6" storms in February. 

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3 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Starting to absolutely despise where I live as I'm sick and tired of watching it snow to my North and to my South!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Southwestern Oswego county and Northwestern Onondaga county are in such a crap transition zone.

What area of Oswego County are you in? Are you just north of Clay?

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Just as the band shifts south from Oswego county, it falls apart. Looks like another dusting marked down...and wait of another couple weeks to get our first inch here in the NW Syracuse burbs. I really doubt how much Lake effect snow this area gets...I am thinking it's more lake-enhanced on the back side of well-pathed systems, which were missing last year.

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I'm convinced that a NNW wind is when we get our best snows at my locationexcept when a Cutoff sits atop Vermont or NH for a few days as it meanders off into the Gulf of Maine! Who's calling off Winter anyway, lol, I haven't read the thread in a while! Very cold morning with a temp of 17° with snow falling and have added a couple inches since 6:30 so all in all, not bad for 11/17!

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Just as the band shifts south from Oswego county, it falls apart. Looks like another dusting marked down...and wait of another couple weeks to get our first inch here in the NW Syracuse burbs. I really doubt how much Lake effect snow this area gets...I am thinking it's more lake-enhanced on the back side of well-pathed systems, which were missing last year.
100% correct my friend. True LE doesn't happen around here all that often but when it does, its special fo sho!

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2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

The LR temps look to be right around the seasonal average of low 40’s to upper 30’s  as we approach December. In that type of scenario it would not take much for us to be in the right side of a system to get snow.

You're right. Long range does not look terrible. No air really cold enough for lake effect, but synoptic chances. 

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Yeah. I don’t see much despite a favorable track. No Canadian highs to link up with anything. 
maybe some LES on a SW flow. 
temps marginal. 
but it could be what we want. Several times in the last few years we started strong only to be dissatisfied. Maybe it goes the other way? Or maybe we are due one more dud. 

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4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Yeah. I don’t see much despite a favorable track. No Canadian highs to link up with anything. 
maybe some LES on a SW flow. 
temps marginal. 
but it could be what we want. Several times in the last few years we started strong only to be dissatisfied. Maybe it goes the other way? Or maybe we are due one more dud. 

Nearly every long term indice/index/etc... paints a grim picture of this winter. Hopefully they're all wrong and we get slammed. We just need cold air to get things going. I just don't see a lot of it for awhile. The thing is Ninas usually feature great Decembers and spring arrives early. December is 10 days away. If things still look this grim at end of month it might be another ratter winter. 

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24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Nearly every long term indice/index/etc... paints a grim picture of this winter. Hopefully they're all wrong and we get slammed. We just need cold air to get things going. I just don't see a lot of it for awhile. The thing is Ninas usually feature great Decembers and spring arrives early. December is 10 days away. If things still look this grim at end of month it might be another ratter winter. 

Great point. It’s that SE ridge. I think it’s a new permanent feature. Global warming change. I’m gonna have to move to Montana/ Wyoming. NW and Northern Rockies is gonna be where it’s at. Surprisingly affordable in Jackson Hole. Lol! 

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

At least snowfall seems above normal in Canada, our source of cold air.

Northern Hemisphere Snow & Ice Chart

I mean one thing we can hang our hats on this far north is during all of January our average high is below freezing so even a +2 degree departure still gets us plenty of snow chances even really from mid December on if being honest. I’m not worried...yet

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6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I mean one thing we can hang our hats on this far north is during all of January our average high is below freezing so even a +2 degree departure still gets us plenty of snow chances even really from mid December on if being honest. I’m not worried...yet

Nam shows some snow on Sunday 

93FC5209-4F9A-40C3-BA24-BEF2A67B96C0.png

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