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Slower trend with the CF for the beginning of the week..

The back half of the week looks similar here with mid 50s-low 60s for highs..

 

Cold front that was once to approach and bring a showery day on
Sunday continues to trend slower. Increased temps more on
Sunday now into the upper 70s to near 80F and now have lowered
to only slight chance of rain across the board, but it would
appear we are on our way to a dry forecast. Slower trend in the
front continues Sunday night through Monday night as well. Was
looking like due to slow moving front crossing and right
entrance of upper jet that some of the region on Monday would
see widespread showers with even a small risk of thunder. Not so
sure on that now. Temps will be cooler than the warm weekend,
but if this slower trend holds, we would still make it to the
lower 70s for much of the area on Monday.
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13 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Why does the forecast for next week looking less chilly by the day?

Because it’s the GFS at 10 days out and this is what it does all the time lol. It also shows a big cool shot and then as it gets closer it keeps pushing it further and further back and makes it look less and less impressive each run. 

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LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A pattern shift will take place through the Long Term and warm, dry
weather will transition to cool, wet weather by Thursday.
Unfortunalty, there are different model solutions during the Long
Term period and therefore confidence remains low in regards to
intensity and timing of some weather features.

A southerly flow continues across the eastern Great Lakes Monday.
Clouds and showers are possible as a cold front approaches from the
Central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Temperatures will likely reach
the 70s through the afternoon. A deepening trough across the central
U.S. will become squeezed between two strong ridges on both sides by
Tuesday. This may produce a cut off low across the Lower Mississippi
Valley while a shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes into
mid-week. Whether low pressure forms along the cold front or the
cold front moves through the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday-Wednesday,
showers are likely. A period of windy conditions during this
time can`t be ruled out. The shortwave trough will evolve into
a large scale trough across much of the eastern CONUS. Cool,
Canadian air will filter south across the Great Lakes. A cool,
showery period is likely late in the week.
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It's definitely passed "just changing" in the higher elevations of the tug..Took a ride through barnes corner, worth, Loraine and into N Redfield, trees looks quite advanced lol Some really nice color.. Probably should take some pics next time I roll through lol

Just outside Copenhagen, 1200 feet asl..

IMG_20200924_200029.jpg

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8 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Couple of the recent runs showing a real nice high wind event next week (:D).  Could get a little dodgey with all the trees still holding full foliage. This is also the reason for the delayed cold push. That storm blows up and retrogrades back West in the recent models!

There's not much holding the leaves on here.

We are changing colors by the day and with almost no rain the last 2 weeks they are going to come down quickly in wind and rain I think.

Could be a very compressed foliage season.

 

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16 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Why does the forecast for next week looking less chilly by the day?

Persistent cloud cover. With that -NAO block building up near Newfoundland were likely going to see some lake effect rain showers and constant clipper activity for the next week or so. The GFS stalls the low in Hudson Bay for a few days too. It'll be cool and wet regardless. Our best chance for widespread frost will likely be next weekend.

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21 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Couple of the recent runs showing a real nice high wind event next week (:D).  Could get a little dodgey with all the trees still holding full foliage. This is also the reason for the delayed cold push. That storm blows up and retrogrades back West in the recent models!

Oh, yay. Cutters even suck in the early fall too. Right when the leaves start changing...knock em down! lol

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11 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Unfortunately even as Monday into Tuesday forecast seems to be
getting better tuned now, the Wednesday into Thursday period is
becoming fraught with uncertainty. Mainly this is tied to the
ECMWF and Canadian handling of upper trough over the middle of
the North America. Both these models are insistent on larger
trough from central Canada to northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes
with stronger trough digging farther south across the southern
United States. This solution is somewhat supported by 12z EC and
NAEFS ensembles but it is not supported by GFS. Long story
short, the non-GFS solutions would bring that southern stream
system back across the northeast later Wednesday into Thursday
while the GFS is more broadbrushed in bringing gradually colder
and more moist cyclonic sw flow into our region within the broad
troughing pattern. Current forecast is more GFS like, but
looking at these trends from the ECMWF and Canadian, some
adjustments to forecast may eventually be needed Wed-Thu.
Eventually all models do show the trough and cold air settling
across, but it may now not be until very late in the week.
Models often struggle in these type of strong pattern changes
and that seems like what is occurring this time around.

The climate is just making sure we have yet another above normal September.

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LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A longwave trough will slowly pass over our region this period,
bringing chances for rain showers each day. Early in the period cold
air aloft and southwesterly flow ahead of the trough may generate
lake effect rain to the northeast of the lakes Wednesday - Friday,
while Friday night and Saturday a westerly flow will focus rain
showers east of the Lakes.

October will open with much below normal temperatures, with highs
Thursday - Saturday 6 to 12F degrees below normal. Overnights will
be chilly, and while there will be concerns for frost/freeze late in
the period as 850 hPa temperatures dip below zero Celsius, the
presence of the upper level trough/moisture and lacking strong
surface high/subsidence may not lead to much areal coverage of
frost/freeze.
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Took a day trip up to Old Forge and Inlet area Saturday. The fall colors up there are absolutely beautiful right now, was such a beautiful day for a ride. Old Forge was a zoo, crazy how many people were there. Even the fall colors on the southern part of the Tug Hill were beautiful. On the way home stopped in Redfield, damn is the reservoir extremely low, never seen it that low. So glad i got to take the trip for the day. Leaving Old Forge the traffic on 28 heading into town was back up a good 2-3 miles. 

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34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

RGEM now goes out to 84 on pivotal, which is a nice touch with winter coming up..

 

qpf_acc.us_ne (6).png

I think the Buffalo metro gets a good dose of LER tomorrow night thru Wed. All models showing about a 24 hour stretch of SW winds in that time frame and good moisture...too bad this wasn't 8 weeks from now...

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