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NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021


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14 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

PF can confirm, but in the past if I recall they have been something like-- " PF will enjoy the fresh 4-8" at the picnic tables". 

Something along those lines.

Yeah they’ve mentioned that before, ha.  Picnic Tables get mentioned once in a while.  They talk snowmaking and skiing sometimes in those.  They know their audience, the outdoor rec crew slamming refresh on the AFDs.  Helps that a bunch of them live in the Upslope zone too, you naturally talk about what affects you too.  

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah they’ve mentioned that before, ha.  Picnic Tables get mentioned once in a while.  They talk snowmaking and skiing sometimes in those.  They know their audience, the outdoor rec crew slamming refresh on the AFDs.  Helps that a bunch of them live in the Upslope zone too, you naturally talk about what affects you too.  

GYX likes talking about tropical dews and atmospheric rivers at the coast.

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

GYX likes talking about tropical dews and atmospheric rivers at the coast.

I mean where does the population live?  Hard to blame them.  BTV doesn’t talk about Essex County VT.  It just happens that Montpelier to Burlington stretch runs through the heart of the mountains and the ski areas are nearby too.  Busiest stretch of traffic in the state too.

If the Whites sat over Sebago Lake they’d probably be the focus point of the CWA, ha.  I think it’s proximity and population.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

They lurk and we had one regular poster (Mike M. who authored the Froude Number study) but has since relocated to a NWS office in the mid-Atlantic. 

Ok, I remember there was someone who was very briefly on here when I moved in 2014, must have left soon after that.

I had no clue about the microclimates here and remember asking during a huge cutter with a raging LLJ and SE winds "why is it so damn windy here?" Ha.  I think he was the first one that informed me about the Western slopes downsloping.

 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I mean where does the population live?  Hard to blame them.  BTV doesn’t talk about Essex County VT.  It just happens that Montpelier to Burlington stretch runs through the heart of the mountains and the ski areas are nearby too.

If the Whites sat over Sebago Lake they’d probably be the focus point of the CWA, ha.  I think it’s proximity and population.

Kind of like SVT for ALY--seem like the forgotten sibling at times..ha.  But where the METs live and where most of the population live is the capital region, so makes sense.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I mean where does the population live?  Hard to blame them.  BTV doesn’t talk about Essex County VT.  It just happens that Montpelier to Burlington stretch runs through the heart of the mountains and the ski areas are nearby too.  Busiest stretch of traffic in the state too.

If the Whites sat over Sebago Lake they’d probably be the focus point of the CWA, ha.  I think it’s proximity and population.

Oh yeah, no doubt. I get it.

And it's on us weenies who live in these remote microclimates to learn how to adjust the more generalized forecast for our areas. I am slowly learning how to adjust the forecast for my spot.

Sometimes the GYX crew does seem positively giddy over the cutters, though. Breaks my heart a little. LOL

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1 minute ago, MRVexpat said:

Decent upslope signal for the northern ski areas on the GFSv16? Looks like the low takes the Portland > north of Caribou route and is pretty slow to scoot out of there. 5+ days away and all that but in my limited experience that seems to be a pretty good track for the ol reach around snows. 

That’s the classic track.

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Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

After the snowfall started yesterday afternoon, we picked up 0.5” of snow through midnight, and then another 0.4” this morning by observations time.  The details for those observations are below.  We’d had another 0.3” before I headed off to Burlington today, so I think that’s where this event stands for now at our site.  The snow has been falling in very calm air by us, allowing it to be exceedingly fluffy with ratios on the 1:40 or 1:50 range as people have noted.  The 0.4” of snow from this morning actually contained <0.01” of L.E., so that’s way up there in terms of dryness.  This new snow has increased the depth of the snowpack a bit, but not even to the point of adding a full 0.5” yet because it’s just so light and settles so easily.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 20.3 F

Sky: Light Snow (5-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 23.2 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

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3 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

I noticed that when the local discussions in marginal events when they talk about accumulations, they generally undershoot snow totals up here.  Even when they mention higher elevation totals, it’s generally a little less than we get.  I think yesterday, it only mentioned up to an inch.  I’m assuming that jay is so unique in its micro-climate that you are more forecasting for the general geographic area and not something so specific and unique like a ski area town.  Am my completely off?

For our typical small to medium bread and butter events, I find that very much the case.  The BTV NWS does a fantastic job of accounting for our special microclimates here, but I think the extra upslope, long periods of snow globe flakes, and really high snow ratios we often get can easily screw with the ability to correctly forecast amounts.  Even though we know it happens (this current system being a great example), the forecasters probably can’t go around assuming 40:1 or 50:1 ratios for snowfall when they’re putting together the forecasts.

When I look at the point forecasts for our site for typical bread and butter events, the eventual snowfall total is often something closer to the higher end of the forecast range, or even above it.  The liquid equivalent may actually be close to what the models and forecasters predicted, but the snow growth just ends up being so efficient that you get more inches out of it than the typical forecast would suggest.

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"I definitely don't take it as a criticism, and actually sometimes I come here because I can't check every P&C for accuracy and consistency. 

I like to say we're way more akin to a graphic designer than how these guys did things".

Chris,  I  have a question about NWS graphics and  may have asked you this a couple of years ago.  When the area is under multiple threats the graphics can only display one color at a time.    Can't the graphic use a color stripe or other demarcation so at quick glance someone would know there are multiple hazards?  I understand  a warning would take president over a watch or advisory but there must be a way of doing this.

Thanks for all the great work you and Gray NWS does  for us!

 

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I mean where does the population live?  Hard to blame them.  BTV doesn’t talk about Essex County VT.  It just happens that Montpelier to Burlington stretch runs through the heart of the mountains and the ski areas are nearby too.  Busiest stretch of traffic in the state too.

If the Whites sat over Sebago Lake they’d probably be the focus point of the CWA, ha.  I think it’s proximity and population.

Same idea for the weather presentations on the PWM network channels.  They offer "coastal" and "inland" forecasts, but the latter seem to fit Westbrook and Gorham more than Raymond or LEW.

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17 minutes ago, Hitman said:

I might be mistaken but things are looking up for this weekend.  snow-forecast.com, which I believe is based on the GFS, now has SB at 8" for friday night into saturday.  Almost 10" for Stowe. 

People starting to mention this weekend up here.  As of now, what we may lose to a mix, we might get back in upslope afterwards.  Maybe this is the storm that gets jay and Stowe open..we’ll see.  The northern greens are due for a strong 10-14 period.

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20 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

People starting to mention this weekend up here.  As of now, what we may lose to a mix, we might get back in upslope afterwards.  Maybe this is the storm that gets jay and Stowe open..we’ll see.  The northern greens are due for a strong 10-14 period.

We are one good QPF dump away from a lot of the natural terrain.  It’s skiable cautiously but would be down to dirt and closed within like an hour, lol.  Even people who poach stuff are like “that was good as the first person but probably wouldn’t be for the 12th person down it.”

If we could get a 0.75-1.0” water equivalent event I think the mountain opens up pretty wide.  At this point it’s not inches of snow to open stuff but water.  Even 3-4” of sleet would do it, ha.

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We are one good QPF dump away from a lot of the natural terrain.  It’s skiable cautiously but would be down to dirt and closed within like an hour, lol.  Even people who poach stuff are like “that was good as the first person but probably wouldn’t be for the 12th person down it.”

If we could get a 0.75-1.0” water equivalent event I think the mountain opens up pretty wide.  At this point it’s not inches of snow to open stuff but water.  Even 3-4” of sleet would do it, ha.

Yeah, it’s similar here.  With so little traffic, the natural trails were actually pretty good today.  Yesterday, it was really a stretch to have some of them open.  They only opened 3 glades but you could find others that were more than skiable today.  Def have to plan your turns and keep your eyes open tho.

I held off on Stowe only because I think there was more natural here.  I’m hoping next week some of upper four runner trails get open.  Not worth blowing one of my epic days to lap the mountain triple, but I’m looking forward to getting there soon. 

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1 minute ago, bwt3650 said:

Yeah, it’s similar here.  With so little traffic, the natural trails were actually pretty good today.  Yesterday, it was really a stretch to have some of them open.  They only opened 3 glades but you could find others that were more than skiable today.  Def have to plan your turns and keep your eyes open tho.

I held off on Stowe only because I think there was more natural here.  I’m hoping next week some of upper four runner trails get open.  Not worth blowing one of my epic days to lap the mountain triple, but I’m looking forward to getting there soon. 

Good choice.  We only got 2” too.  But we just see too much skier traffic to open the natural trails at this point.  Something Jay doesn’t have to worry about with the border closed, ha.  Guess today they extended it to February 21st.

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