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NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021


wxeyeNH
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58 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Just a "weenie" clown map.  18Z GFS  Kuchera snow map through Jan 24.   At least some things to watch.  Even 1/3 of this would be nice

18Z GFS.jpg

 

14 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Hmmm...I could see some glades opening up with that.  It certainly beats the “0” inches the last seven days.

There’s no color key on the map, but assuming that lavender magenta coloring is ~50”, that would definitely get most of the glades rolling.  Actually, for a 14-day period, 1/3 of that amount would represent a below average snowfall pace for the local mountains; something in the range of ½ of those amounts would likely be about average.  With how far they are behind average pace, the mountains around here are certainly due for some make-up snowfall though, so odds would argue that with their relatively low snowfall variance, they’ll run into an above average snowfall period at some point.

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Gyx doesn't make one very optimistic... :wacko: Of course my P&C has no mention of rain at all but consistency is optional (sorry OceanSt) :D

 

On Friday evening a developing area of low pressure will be moving
over the Great Lakes region before moving into eastern Ontario or
Quebec by Saturday morning. There remains significant disagreement
in the ensemble low tracks with this system as a fair number of the
ECWMF individual ensembles have two main clusters, one is located
over the Great Lakes region whereas the other is further to the
southeast offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England at
12Z Saturday. These two separate solutions then eventually converge
with a mean low track almost directly over our area. The CMC
ensembles generally are in decent agreement with the ECMWF in terms
of timing but on average they are a little further east. Finally,
the GEFS ensemble mean low locations are somewhere in between those
of the ECMWF and CMC. The ultimate track of this system will have
large implications on precipitation type for our area as a more
westward track would favor mostly rain whereas an eastward track
would favor more in the way of winter precipitation. Generally
favored the more westward solution in this forecast package due to
the location of the 500 mb trough which will be located across the
center of the country on saturday morning and the 500 mb ridge over
the Pacific northwest. This keeps the majority of the precipitation
liquid, even across the north.

In terms of total QPF from this system, the ECMWF ensemble mean by
06Z Sunday has a swath of around 1" of precipitation across central
NH and ME with between 0.50-0.75" further to the north and south.
The GEFS ensemble mean by this same time is in overall good
agreement with again locally 1" or greater of QPF across central
regions. Finally, the NBM is overall somewhere in the middle but
still indicated the potential for locally up to around 1" of liquid
equivalent precipitation for some locations. This amount of rain
combined with dew points up to around 40F will likely melt much if
not all of the remaining snow and ice that is on the ground in many
locations.

 

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23 minutes ago, alex said:

It's a bit strange though that with such a high probability of rain in the AFD there is not even a mention in the P&C. The two seem completely disconnected 

Alex,  once you have the Bretton Woods rental market totally locked up I think you need to work part time at Gray and get the P&C software up to snuf for the Whites!

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14 minutes ago, alex said:

It's a bit strange though that with such a high probability of rain in the AFD there is not even a mention in the P&C. The two seem completely disconnected 

Is that a request? I'm on long term, so I can give you all rain. :devilsmiley:

It's actually surprisingly easy to keep snow in the forecast. Most of our weather type tools allow some snow up to 37 degrees. We're not ready for full automation yet, you have to be pretty intentional about what you're trying to put into the grids to make it to the P&C. The newer folks are still learning that.

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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Is that a request? I'm on long term, so I can give you all rain. :devilsmiley:

It's actually surprisingly easy to keep snow in the forecast. Most of our weather type tools allow some snow up to 37 degrees. We're not ready for full automation yet, you have to be pretty intentional about what you're trying to put into the grids to make it to the P&C. The newer folks are still learning that.

For the record, I’m completely cool with all snow here.  No need to mention rain.

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12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Is that a request? I'm on long term, so I can give you all rain. :devilsmiley:

It's actually surprisingly easy to keep snow in the forecast. Most of our weather type tools allow some snow up to 37 degrees. We're not ready for full automation yet, you have to be pretty intentional about what you're trying to put into the grids to make it to the P&C. The newer folks are still learning that.

I noticed that when the local discussions in marginal events when they talk about accumulations, they generally undershoot snow totals up here.  Even when they mention higher elevation totals, it’s generally a little less than we get.  I think yesterday, it only mentioned up to an inch.  I’m assuming that jay is so unique in its micro-climate that you are more forecasting for the general geographic area and not something so specific and unique like a ski area town.  Am my completely off?

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Just now, bwt3650 said:

I noticed that when the local discussions in marginal events when they talk about accumulations, they generally undershoot snow totals up here.  Even when they mention higher elevation totals, it’s generally a little less than we get.  I think yesterday, it only mentioned up to an inch.  I’m assuming that jay is so unique in its micro-climate that you are more forecasting for the general geographic area and not something so specific and unique like a ski area town.  Am my completely off?

You are covered by Burlington, right? GYX covers the Whites, not your area. 

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6 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

I noticed that when the local discussions in marginal events when they talk about accumulations, they generally undershoot snow totals up here.  Even when they mention higher elevation totals, it’s generally a little less than we get.  I think yesterday, it only mentioned up to an inch.  I’m assuming that jay is so unique in its micro-climate that you are more forecasting for the general geographic area and not something so specific and unique like a ski area town.  Am my completely off?

You're mostly right. Sometimes it a broad brushed range over a larger area. But BTV does a better job than most at talking about details down to specific areas of the mountains. 

I'm actually trying to get better at drilling down to those finer geographical points in my discussions, but it's hard to put that kind of detail into the forecast and still have time to get it out. You could spend all day crafting a perfect forecast for Stowe, Bretton Woods, or Newfound Lake, but those are all just one grid point of thousands. 

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21 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

I noticed that when the local discussions in marginal events when they talk about accumulations, they generally undershoot snow totals up here.  Even when they mention higher elevation totals, it’s generally a little less than we get.  I think yesterday, it only mentioned up to an inch.  I’m assuming that jay is so unique in its micro-climate that you are more forecasting for the general geographic area and not something so specific and unique like a ski area town.  Am my completely off?

He forecasts for NH and ME.

Edit: Damn it, Ninja'd! I should have read down a post or two before replying.

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11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You're mostly right. Sometimes it a broad brushed range over a larger area. But BTV does a better job than most at talking about details down to specific areas of the mountains. 

I'm actually trying to get better at drilling down to those finer geographical points in my discussions, but it's hard to put that kind of detail into the forecast and still have time to get it out. You could spend all day crafting a perfect forecast for Stowe, Bretton Woods, or Newfound Lake, but those are all just one grid point of thousands. 

 

38 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Is that a request? I'm on long term, so I can give you all rain. :devilsmiley:

It's actually surprisingly easy to keep snow in the forecast. Most of our weather type tools allow some snow up to 37 degrees. We're not ready for full automation yet, you have to be pretty intentional about what you're trying to put into the grids to make it to the P&C. The newer folks are still learning that.

The snowy P&C warms the heart but doesn't open glades unless it actually materializes. So if you could keep the grids as is and make sure it's in fact all snow, that'd be great!

Jokes aside, it's not really meant as a criticism even though it sounds like it. I can't imagine how hard it is to capture the uncertainty and all the variables inherent to forecasting over such a long period and wide area. One day that you're bored I'd love to hear how the system actually works... It seems fascinating!

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Surprising bit of snow in the pre-dawn, 1.0" of 40:1 fluff though I rounded LE up to 0.03" - covers the dusting that fell 7-8 AM after I cleared the board.  If wxeyeNH's request of 1/3 of the Kuchera fantasy were to verify, I'm all done thru 1/24 as that map had me at about 3".  06z GFS dumps about 1.5" of low 40s RA over the weekend and the ever-retreating cold has moved completely beyond 384; all 16 days show AN minima, ranging from  a few degrees to 20+ during the deluge.  In other trivia, yesterday's mean temp was 1° BN, stopping the AN run at 21 days.  (And leaving me wondering how long before the next BN.)

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28F and partly cloudy on the downslope side today.  This is one of the benefits of living right on the other side of the high terrain.  While it is just mostly cloudy but boring north of me I will have enough sun today to make 30F pleasant.

I'm not yet looking at the models for later this week as don't want to get invested in any one outcome.  Still a bit too far out for me

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34 minutes ago, alex said:

The snowy P&C warms the heart but doesn't open glades unless it actually materializes. So if you could keep the grids as is and make sure it's in fact all snow, that'd be great!

Jokes aside, it's not really meant as a criticism even though it sounds like it. I can't imagine how hard it is to capture the uncertainty and all the variables inherent to forecasting over such a long period and wide area. One day that you're bored I'd love to hear how the system actually works... It seems fascinating!

I definitely don't take it as a criticism, and actually sometimes I come here because I can't check every P&C for accuracy and consistency. 

I like to say we're way more akin to a graphic designer than how these guys did things. 

weather-bureau-office-1900.png

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