• Member Statistics

    16,059
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Cat Lady
    Newest Member
    Cat Lady
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Hurricane Sally

Recommended Posts

Just looking at this  it  has alot  of  dry air  issues, not to mention shear. HWRF as a tropical storm seems reasonable. Maybe alot  of  rain unless the dry air  issues  continue. I still think this  may get a  2nd  chance off the SE  coast.

 

202009131510.gif

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m still pretty bullish. I haven’t seen a ton to move me from that position. I think the organizational trends tonight matter a lot as shear declines, but as @Windspeed said I’m also not expecting a lot of intensification until tomorrow. The guidance signal for any dramatic intensification doesn’t really happen until it’s close to landfall, so it’s no surprise it’s only gradually trying to get it together right now. 

If I had to make a first call right now I’d say 100kt landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi with flooding and surge remaining the biggest hazards. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Strongly disagree. I think the ceiling is low end 3 here.

I think that is a realistic assumption to make at this moment in time.  Still, as others have mentioned, surge and rain will be of serious concern as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Cheeznado said:

12Z GFS pretty weak. I still think it will become a hurricane but cat 2 at the most.

It also moved the forecast track substantially east bringing the center east of New Orleans.  Not written in stone off course, but that would matter a lot. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Strongly disagree. I think the ceiling is low end 3 here.

I think mid-range 3 is doable but it's splitting hairs at that point

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the reasoning it hasn't intensified much yet was the windshear pushing the bulk of the storm over florida. However, assuming that lets up, the gulf is never trustworthy xD I haven't looked at the models yet today but my gut has been telling me a solid cat 2 since it was a disturbance. However, that's just my gut xD 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't underestimate this one folks. Yeah it's sheared, but shear has been steadily decreasing, and shear vector should flip from northerly to southerly, leading to a window where it will be vertically stacked and can rapidly intensify. Nothing is off the table intensity wise considering how slow it will be moving. 

  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Don't underestimate this one folks. Yeah it's sheared, but shear has been steadily decreasing, and shear vector should flip from northerly to southerly, leading to a window where it will be vertically stacked and can rapidly intensify. Nothing is off the table intensity wise considering how slow it will be moving. 

Ya probably. But if I got a penny for every time i read shear decreasing tonight/tomorrow I would be rich.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Don't underestimate this one folks. Yeah it's sheared, but shear has been steadily decreasing, and shear vector should flip from northerly to southerly, leading to a window where it will be vertically stacked and can rapidly intensify. Nothing is off the table intensity wise considering how slow it will be moving. 

Out of curiosity, why do you think the models all put it at a low end cat 1? I'm curious what factor is in play in which the models wouldn't be predicting RI?

Regardless of how strong the winds get, it sure has a lot of precipitation to be wary of regardless. The main thing I'm concerned about is it slowing down towards New Orleans... I saw that they're evacuating people outside of the levee system but aren't the levees a bit of a flood trap once water is inside?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Don't underestimate this one folks. Yeah it's sheared, but shear has been steadily decreasing, and shear vector should flip from northerly to southerly, leading to a window where it will be vertically stacked and can rapidly intensify. Nothing is off the table intensity wise considering how slow it will be moving. 

Historically, besides Michael which was a different animal, this region of the gulf has not been conducive for rapid strengthening. Furthermore, conditions leading up to LF are nowhere near ideal. I think we can throw the term rapid out for this one, in every sense of the word. Will it be strengthening going into the delta? Likely, but it needs a core and it will take 18+ hours to organize one from present state leaving the ceiling considerably lower for final intensity 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

I think mid-range 3 is doable but it's splitting hairs at that point

I think the odds are far more likely that this system struggles to attain cat 1 status than approach a major. Models that had called for that already had a system much better defined at this timeframe than what we have. I fully expect a cat 1, cat 2 is the ceiling. Besides a questionable shear outlook, do we really think a storm moving over shelf water at less than 10kt can really attain major status? Atmosphere is obviously important but we must look at location in this instance. A storm traveling 100 miles further south and I might say this makes a run at a 3

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think the odds are far more likely that this system struggles to attain cat 1 status than approach a major. Models that had called for that already had a system much better defined at this timeframe than what we have. I fully expect a cat 1, cat 2 is the ceiling. Besides a questionable shear outlook, do we really think a storm moving over shelf water at less than 10kt can really attain major status? Atmosphere is obviously important but we must look at location in this instance. A storm traveling 100 miles further south and I might say this makes a run at a 3

People badly want this to be a major and will cherry-pick data and arguments for 24 more hours until the writing is really on the wall

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2020 at  it again. The super favorable  conditions still havent arrived. Looks awful this  morning but the theme of the season has  been late  intensification due  to land  interaction. Has alot  of work to do just to be a  minimal hurricane.slp33.png

I assume that  low sw  of TD20 is Sally. Its quite  possible it gets  left  behind  under a strong  ridge. I still think sally  will get a  2nd  chance.

  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

Ukmet into the 960s.

The UK 12z run I just watched has the storm taking off later Monday as it slows and turns north to the east of New Orleans.  It strengthens into the mid 970s and hits just west of Mobile.  Like other models are showing, Sally doesn't do much for the next 24 hours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This will be rapidly intensifying near landfall while moving very slowly.

Very bad flooding situation regardless of how strong it gets. This could be on its way towards a major right near landfall...I'm thinking 100-105mph peak east of N.O right now.

To those commenting on its current look, don't forget how ugly Laura looked before it blew up.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

Some towers going up in the NE quad for the first time in quite awhile.  We'll see how much the shear has lessened shortly.

The presence of those hot towers is a strong indicator that the shear vector is finally switching from northerly to southerly. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Besides a questionable shear outlook, do we really think a storm moving over shelf water at less than 10kt can really attain major status? 

Wouldn't more time over water be beneficial? Others have pointed this out so I'm curious why people seem to think slow storm = weak storm?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Wouldn't more time over water be beneficial? Others have pointed this out so I'm curious why people seem to think slow storm = weak storm?

Upwelling, lack of deep latent heat concentration in that area of the gulf, continental air interaction with the circulation. Slow moving beasts like Harvey only slowed down at landfall, mitigating these negative factors. Dorian was over some of the warmest waters in the ocean and almost no land interaction (islands it hit are small and have almost zero elevation in addition to being surrounded by incredibly deep water) and it did eventually weaken due to slow movement. Very very few examples of majors slowing to a crawl and intensifying into landfall, unless it’s on Florida’s east coast where the gulfstream and fact Florida is a peninsula mitigates some of the above negative factors. Look at Florence as a recent example 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

The presence of those hot towers is a strong indicator that the shear vector is finally switching from northerly to southerly. 

Southerly shear?  Shear should be near to non existent once pass 86W with some westerly shear possible near landfall.   No?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This isn't really an easy forecast. TC genesis and intensification isn't linear. Often there's an ebb and flow to this that requires you to "smooth out" via a longer term 12-24 hour trend. To me, the longer term trend here is that despite moderate shear Sally has gradually organized and intensified. 

Earlier I said my first call was 100kts, a major hurricane. I certainly think that's on the higher end and closer to the ceiling for this storm, but within a reasonable range of possibilities. I fully discount higher end major here due to the continued presence of some shear through landfall and the slow movement in the next few days over the shelf. This isn't Laura's environment, and this is not the environment that's favorable for the development of a high end major hurricane. I also discount what would more or less amount to the collapsing of the system's organization and a struggle to reach hurricane status. For me, I think the maximum intensity possibilities fall somewhere between 70kts and 105kts. Again, right now I am on the higher end of that. 

Despite the disorganization we see currently, shear is decreasing (currently analyzed at 6.7kts per CMISS) and there is a continual effort (though unsuccessful to this point) to build deep convection around the center. This isn't a good looking system. It's just decent at the moment. In order for a higher end solution to be possible I think we need to see the development of at least a nascent inner core overnight. If that fails to take place, the ceiling falls a bit. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Leo said:

I think the reasoning it hasn't intensified much yet was the windshear pushing the bulk of the storm over florida. However, assuming that lets up, the gulf is never trustworthy xD I haven't looked at the models yet today but my gut has been telling me a solid cat 2 since it was a disturbance. However, that's just my gut xD 

This is my thinking.  I never trust any storm in the GOM even if the conditions don’t look very good 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone get the morality debate out of the way?

I think the guidance is telling us something by not really having a weakening signal prior to landfall.  Could it be that it won't be weakening?  Upwelling would be a big concern if we had a large system that was a higher end hurricane, but how much does it matter with a weaker system?

Could it be weakening on approach?  Anything is possible, but don't expect or bank on that.

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.