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Hurricane Sally

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38 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

18z HWRF has come back down to earth from its last run. Rather than a 950s Cat 3 heading into LA it's still strong 970s but significantly weaker than the 12z run. Long way to go, lots of uncertainty. Globals don't look too excited about bombing this out but they've obviously done poorly this season wrt intensity.

????? wtf you talking about dude. 959 counts as 950s. Nowhere near 970s. 

Screen Shot 2020-09-12 at 7.48.39 PM.png

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32 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:


"Lay Down Sally" was in my head the last day or so, but "Long Tall Sally" was by far a superior song. You guys aren't alone. Let's move this to the banter thread before the Orwellian moderators chastises us.

Judging by how quickly threads in this part of the forum can fall apart...I doubt the brief exchange is gonna be an issue, lol

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Mandatory evacuation for Orleans Parish (City of New Orleans) that is OUTSIDE of the levee system. One has to wonder if/when the city could expand that to parts within, notably New Orleans East. 

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45 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

????? wtf you talking about dude. 959 counts as 950s. Nowhere near 970s. 

Screen Shot 2020-09-12 at 7.48.39 PM.png

We will see, too early to make a deterministic call here, roughly 10 mb higher min pressure compared with the last run and it took longer to consolidate. Lots of possibilities still on the table. If this thing is deepening quickly heading into landfall as shown on the HWRF obviously this will be a very bad situation in a surge prone area.

Point still stands, not as intense as the previous run and so far the globals aren't jumping on board the RI into landfall train.. yet.

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Just now, mattb65 said:

We will see, too early to make a deterministic call here, roughly 10 mb higher min pressure compared with the last run and it took longer to consolidate. Lots of possibilities still on the table. If this thing is deepening quickly heading into landfall as shown on the HWRF obviously this will be a very bad situation in a surge prone area.

Point still stands, not as intense as the previous run and so far the globals aren't jumping on board the RI into landfall train.. yet.

Why are you wasting time overanalyzing every run? 

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Coming back online, it was Shabbos so I couldn't use my computer at all. I got a 'direct hit', and peak wind gust I saw was 40 mph, although I wasn't up right when the center was making landfall, I woke up after sunrise.

In the late morning the clouds were racing incredibly fast, like as fast as they move in a hurricane. 

Most notable thing is this is the wettest tropical cyclone we got in a long time. Raining non-stop practically all day. It stopped raining for a bit before sunset but then even heavier rains began moving in. It's quite flooded here.

Zero wind damage here, although at least 6 avocados came down. 4 of the avocados cracked on impact, but 2 are intact. :D

I think there is definitely a continued flooding threat due to coastal convergence, we will see if training bands continue to setup or if it clears out as this moves further west, but as of now that is what's happening. 

Watch out New Orleans! This ain't exactly Katrina, and it's having a problem getting vertically stacked, but if it does could be a catastrophe over there. 

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22 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Why are you wasting time overanalyzing every run? 

Isn't this what the forum is all about???

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15 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Coming back online, it was Shabbos so I couldn't use my computer at all. I got a 'direct hit', and peak wind gust I saw was 40 mph, although I wasn't up right when the center was making landfall, I woke up after sunrise.

In the late morning the clouds were racing incredibly fast, like as fast as they move in a hurricane. 

Most notable thing is this is the wettest tropical cyclone we got in a long time. Raining non-stop practically all day. It stopped raining for a bit before sunset but then even heavier rains began moving in. It's quite flooded here.

Zero wind damage here, although at least 6 avocados came down. 4 of the avocados cracked on impact, but 2 are intact. :D

I think there is definitely a continued flooding threat due to coastal convergence, we will see if training bands continue to setup or if it clears out as this moves further west, but as of now that is what's happening. 

Watch out New Orleans! This ain't exactly Katrina, and it's having a problem getting vertically stacked, but if it does could be a catastrophe over there. 

Shavua Tov, friend.

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We just had quite an intense rain band come through Boca Raton.  My backyard weather station picked up 1.53 inches of rain between 7:59pm and 8:54pm, now up to 2.48 inches for the day.  

 

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12 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

We just had quite an intense rain band come through Boca Raton. 

I was not expecting to do any prep here in Gulfport (FL), but just spent some time in our yard taking down some decorations and securing a few planters, etc. The breeze is stiff (20's), and will get stronger tonight. Sanibel Island which is a couple hours south of here is possibly nearing TS winds soon, so obviously the effects are shifting north and more up on the FL west coast than earlier today.

Have to say, being outside listening to and feeling the power of the air moving even when not close to the storm is awe inspiring. It feels good right now, strong and very warm yet not causing damage (other than a few old small dead branches falling in our yard). Palms are swaying, the Live Oaks are dancing, the sound of the wind is ominous. Sally is very real, all of Florida feels it on some level. More than Isiais, and more than Laura which we did feel a bit. Sally has some energy, and a big energy at that. Just the beginning...

image.thumb.png.abffc0a78743583a590a3b24ab283b0b.png

 

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3 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

definitely outperforming Isaias here on the Treasure Coast 

does anyone really get surprised when little Mac knocks out glass joe?

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1 hour ago, turtlehurricane said:

Coming back online, it was Shabbos so I couldn't use my computer at all. I got a 'direct hit', and peak wind gust I saw was 40 mph, although I wasn't up right when the center was making landfall, I woke up after sunrise.

In the late morning the clouds were racing incredibly fast, like as fast as they move in a hurricane. 

Most notable thing is this is the wettest tropical cyclone we got in a long time. Raining non-stop practically all day. It stopped raining for a bit before sunset but then even heavier rains began moving in. It's quite flooded here.

Zero wind damage here, although at least 6 avocados came down. 4 of the avocados cracked on impact, but 2 are intact. :D

I think there is definitely a continued flooding threat due to coastal convergence, we will see if training bands continue to setup or if it clears out as this moves further west, but as of now that is what's happening. 

Watch out New Orleans! This ain't exactly Katrina, and it's having a problem getting vertically stacked, but if it does could be a catastrophe over there. 

Good to see you are safe and secure, the technology pause left us in suspense!

#avocadostrong

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I’m in Key West and it has been gnarly here since midday peaking around 8-10 with incredible lightning show and strikes (property took a direct hit and transformer blew up). Flooding on the roads is intense. Much more intense than anybody here was expecting.

Edit: Thanks for the hot dog dr. Drew. Sorry if my personal play by play didn’t impress you. I’m not a meteorologist, don’t claim to know anything about storms. Just a guy in the keys who is used to tropical weather who is surprised by what he is seeing.

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Some NW'ly wind shear tonight still evident on IR and it would appear that the tilt is actually worse than earlier today. Unless we see some significant convection tonight, any significant intensification will likely have to wait until that shear decreases tomorrow afternoon. NWP having some issues initializing and forecasting sub-outflow level shear it seems.

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I am looking forward to waking up in the morning to see what develops. Tonight I'll sleep comfortably listening to the wind blow outside with occasional rain bands.

For now, "Lay Down Sally" from 11-15-91 which may be 29 years to the day that Sally makes landfall.

 

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32 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Some NW'ly wind shear tonight still evident on IR and it would appear that the tilt is actually worse than earlier today. Unless we see some significant convection tonight, any significant intensification will likely have to wait until that shear decreases tomorrow afternoon. NWP having some issues initializing and forecasting sub-outflow level shear it seems.

I wonder if the previous LLC just kind of decays somewhat and we get a new one more collocated with the deep convective blob overnight. Storm is still disorganized enough to facilitate that.

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Additionally, the HWRF has been notably stronger when it comes to shear relative to the globals and continues to impart 15-20kts of westerly shear throughout Sally's transit of the gulf. Not entirely sure how good/useful it is in this arena, but it seems logical to go with consensus/globals over the HWRF. Though it is a notable outlier.

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Y'alls music references are off, Mustang Sally is the only one that applies here :sizzle:

All joking aside, Sally is starting to look ominous.  If this storm pulls a fast one and strengthens even just to a Cat 2, on it's current NHC forecast track the surge into NOLA could be comparable to 2005.  Forecasted surge right now is 6-9, 2005 was 10-15.  This storm could be the first real test of all the work that's been done over the last 15 years from lessons learned in 2005.

If you read the 11pm NHC discussion you can get a sense of some hints of uncertainty, especially with the HWRF pulling it's usual.  Best intensity model for strength ceiling IMHO.  Regardless, I think the NHC is gonna play this one closer to the chest than normal until tomorrow sometime when they can get as much data as possible before 48 hour landfall..  I think they know this could turn into a media hyped superstorm. 

The next 24 hours will tell the tale.  The storm is still organizing it's core, it's been mid level dominant for days.  Currently some of the strongest sustained convection close to the perceived LL center is occuring.  I think the mid level is still drilling, the top is wobbling.  Where and when does that equilibrium settle. Never underestimate the potential energy in 31C water.  00Z SHIPS has some scary numbers in it compared to Laura 48 hours out.

I hope tomorrow this time we can be throwing Sally songs around, but there's potential with this storm that nobody wants.  Sally better slow her Mustang down.

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Sally's center appears to be north of the deepest convection. Infact, Tampa Bay radar shows the center looking quite robust but more up off Sarasota, not down by the Naples area. That could have short-term track implications. 

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I say it looks about due west of Cape Coral. Good looking low end TS for sure. For as close as it seems to be to the west coast Im surprised no TS warning were posted. Heaviest rain of the day in the last couple hours. 
 

Side note- Wife, kids, and in-laws Just drove from Visiting family in Bonita Springs back home to Jupiter and said it was fun windy ride across alligator alley.

Hopefully this is a dud for the folks up north on the gulf coast.

 

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Euro barely strengthens it below 1000mb. I get it's not stacked yet but come on. Call me skeptical... Also looks like the Euro keeps it offshore for awhile.

 

Looks to be slowly organizing on Tampa radar. Needs some convection over the top next.

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Tremendous rain band with a deep convective burst has formed on southeast Florida coast due to coastal convergence. Lots of thunder and lightning, and it sounds like there is hail. 

At first we got this sudden powerful downpour before the main band, and it stopped for a minute.

I went out to take out the trash and look at the weather, and I heard a roaring sound of rain, and 100 feet away from me I saw sheets of rain just pouring down. I couldn’t believe my eyes, and then it unloaded.

This is the heaviest rain Sally has given us so far, it’s just insane. We got lots of rain before, but not with this intensity. This will create a serious flooding situation in parts of southeast Florida. 
 

147 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

At 147 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2
and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Doppler radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
         drainage and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Miami, Hialeah, Miami Beach, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, South
  Miami, Virginia Key, Kendall, Miami Gardens, North Miami, Doral,
  Miami Lakes, Hialeah Gardens, Pinecrest, Opa-Locka, Miami Springs,
  Sweetwater, Miami Shores, West Miami and El Portal.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
warned area.

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