• Member Statistics

    16,106
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Monotone
    Newest Member
    Monotone
    Joined
WxWatcher007

Hurricane Sally

Recommended Posts

17 minutes ago, TriPol said:

 

Didn't the HWRF get Laura pretty dead on?

It did quite well, but every storm is different.

 

Meanwhile, strong pressure falls in Naples:

KAPF 121853Z 08013G20KT 9SM SCT015 OVC022 27/24 A2969 RMK AO2 PK WND 06026/1809 RAB17E32 PRESFR SLP053 P0000 T02720244 $
KAPF 121753Z 07008KT 10SM SCT017 BKN029 OVC100 27/25 A2973 RMK AO2 RAB13E31 SLP066 P0001 60001 T02670250 10289 20256 58010 $
KAPF 121653Z 07010KT 10SM SCT029 BKN039 27/26 A2975 RMK AO2 RAE23 SLP073 P0000 T02720256 $
KAPF 121553Z 08012KT 8SM -RA FEW018 BKN050 OVC060 27/26 A2977 RMK AO2 RAB30 SLP080 P0000 T02670256 $

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The HWRF is not the NAM. It is the best intensity guidance we have, but you have to know when to use it. Using it yesterday when this was an invest would have been bad. There is a well-defined center here so it’s fine. It’ll be even better after there’s recon and 4x daily special sounding data incorporated. 

Not saying it’s right, but it’s in its “wheelhouse”.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First center fix. 
 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 19:08Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308 
Tropical Depression: Nineteen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 18:13:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.62N 81.38W
B. Center Fix Location: 69 statute miles (111 km) to the WNW (301°) from Key Largo, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 725m (2,379ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 28kts (32.2mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 77 nautical miles (89 statute miles) to the WNW (296°) of center fix at 17:48:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 67° at 25kts (From the ENE at 28.8mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 105 nautical miles (121 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix at 17:40:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 20kts (23.0mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the W (265°) of center fix at 18:21:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 311° at 17kts (From the NW at 19.6mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the SW (235°) of center fix at 18:43:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 766m (2,513ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 11.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph) which was observed 105 nautical miles (121 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) from the flight level center at 17:40:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 92 nautical miles (106 statute miles) to the WNW (300°) from the flight level center
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This should be able to become a hurricane I think. But it is limited amount of time and I don’t think we’ll see the real rapid intensification like Laura. I’ll go 90 mph cane into Gulfport

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

This should be able to become a hurricane I think. But it is limited amount of time and I don’t think we’ll see the real rapid intensification like Laura. I’ll go 90 mph cane into Gulfport

It's got like 3 days.  That's not that limited.  What the shear environment is like as well as deleteriously slow speed near landfall are probably bigger concerns as far as intensity, but even those aren't guaranteed to end up being large mitigating factors. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

But it is limited amount of time and I don’t think we’ll see the real rapid intensification like Laura.

Isn't Sally suppose to be a fairly slow moving storm over the GOM? It is going to be over bath water temperatures.

Even slow intensification can be significant.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Satellite presentation has degraded again, with the LLC near Naples and becoming exposed to the northwest of the main convection. Incidentally, this scenario was more or less sniffed out by the HWRF's last two runs, which, while a bit too strong right now, does show the convection to the southeast diminishing and redeveloping over the LLC tonight once it is fully back over water.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What are the chances Sally stays out in the Gulf longer and maybe goes to Texas? I can't think of many storms have been predicted to hit NOLA since Katrina and so few actually have.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Little burst of convection off the Florida coast.

image.png.d51400dd410975694254bba0192c3547.png

Glad it is a Saturday afternoon, no other plans this evening but to watch Sally.

In the Tampa Bay area, I  don't anticipate any preparations other than what we do with typical summer thunderstorms. But will be watching.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's an idiotic duo or group of chasers called "Storm Chaser with Attitude" calling this Katrina on Facebook. Smh.

Or at least they were until several, including myself, called them out for it. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Calderon said:

There's an idiotic duo or group of chasers called "Storm Chaser with Attitude" calling this Katrina on Facebook. Smh.

Or at least they were until several, including myself, called them out for it. 

Facebook is now safe for the truth to prevail. Thank you. 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Bhs1975 said:

Yeah and Hanna too.

HWRF been spot on all season long. 

More so than any global 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Prospero said:

Little burst of convection off the Florida coast.

image.png.d51400dd410975694254bba0192c3547.png

Glad it is a Saturday afternoon, no other plans this evening but to watch Sally.

In the Tampa Bay area, I  don't anticipate any preparations other than what we do with typical summer thunderstorms. But will be watching.

It was nice for the AM walk, but did encounter a rogue 7 knot gust that propelled a not insignificantly sized palm frond in my path.  Has been raining since, about .5 inch so far, with a flood watch posted through Sunday evening.

 

CB1E51D2-7DF2-4009-9CC6-FE2D0D317F03.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m pretty impressed by the amount of deep convection this has been able to fire. Another nice burst starting to go up near the center. 

77016995.gif?0.266673855815049

 

It has the same Katrina/Georges/Isidore shape. That comma shape they all had near the Keys and Western Cuba. I wonder if geography does something.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry, I couldn't resist!

 

This situation is quite serious.  Sometimes we just need to relax, take a breather.  Pick up that guitar if you have one/play, sing in the shower, whatever tickles your fancy.  This one could be bad.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Stormfly said:

Sorry, I couldn't resist!

 

This situation is quite serious.  Sometimes we just need to relax, take a breather.  Pick up that guitar if you have one/play, sing in the shower, whatever tickles your fancy.  This one could be bad.

Now see "Long Tall Sally" was the first thing that came to my mind, lol

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z GFS weaker, and  hmon and hwrf weaker so far. Everything  is a struggle this season. Its  possible it  turns rapidly east  after  landfall and gets a second chance  off the SE coast. Rain looks  like the  big  issue for  the  gulf  coast. Hwrf appears to stall at about  973 mb

  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18z HWRF has come back down to earth from its last run. Rather than a 950s Cat 3 heading into LA it's still strong 970s but significantly weaker than the 12z run. Long way to go, lots of uncertainty. Globals don't look too excited about bombing this out but they've obviously done poorly this season wrt intensity.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now see "Long Tall Sally" was the first thing that came to my mind, lol


"Lay Down Sally" was in my head the last day or so, but "Long Tall Sally" was by far a superior song. You guys aren't alone. Let's move this to the banter thread before the Orwellian moderators chastises us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Woah there bud. I was just making a joke. No need to start a discussion outside of the present tropical threat. 
 

19 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

18z HWRF has come back down to earth from its last run. Rather than a 950s Cat 3 heading into LA it's still strong 970s but significantly weaker than the 12z run. Long way to go, lots of uncertainty. Globals don't look too excited about bombing this out but they've obviously done poorly this season wrt intensity.

Yes. I’m not too concerned with model solutions yet, especially the globals. I think the environment is conducive for some form of fast intensification, but how much will depend on the structure of Sally. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.