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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Sally

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19 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Tony Montana lol. 

  This is a pet peeve of mine especially when it comes to Miami.  Hard to specify when it comes to large coastal cities specifically since most are behind smaller barrier island cities, that get no acknowledgement for taking the hit,  or bays for obvious reasons.  Greater Miami area?  What really is Miami?   Historically SE Fl gets hit by more TC's than any place in the US.  But Miami doesn't?

  Not directed at you but that just reminded me of old AOL FL weatherboards 25 years ago  folks claiming Miami hadn't been hit since 1926 lol  

 

I have pet peeves too. Like when they include "Puerto Rico" and "Guam" on top ten intense hurricane lists. They never did that when I was a kid in the 90s. They didn't include Typhoon "Karen" from 1960s or whatever on a list with Camille and Andrew and the Labor Day Storm. 

I meant Miami, Coconut Grove, Key Biscayne. That exact area.

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2 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Tony Montana lol. 

  This is a pet peeve of mine especially when it comes to Miami.  Hard to specify when it comes to large coastal cities specifically since most are behind smaller barrier island cities, that get no acknowledgement for taking the hit,  or bays for obvious reasons.  Greater Miami area?  What really is Miami?   Historically SE Fl gets hit by more TC's than any place in the US.  But Miami doesn't?

  Not directed at you but that just reminded me of old AOL FL weatherboards 25 years ago  folks claiming Miami hadn't been hit since 1926 lol  

Southeast Florida has had a drought of major cyclone impacts. Irma affected the east coast with widespread tree limbs down and power outages but largely spared it of the worst. Before Irma I think the last storms to really affect the Miami area was Katrina and Wilma 15 years ago. Before those I think we're really talking Andrew, 28 years ago. Am I missing any?

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48 minutes ago, finatic jason said:

Just an Ob...... I think it’s gustier here in Jupiter from this little guy then when Isaias passed just off shore lol. 

Stiff breezes for sure.

 

image.thumb.png.2b8c22d193b1fb67c0c9139249ce04ba.png

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Radar clearly showing the LLC heading SW and the convection starting to realign closer to the center. It should be back over water soon. This northerly shear and slow movement isn't great news for places further west like NO.

Need to be wary of both the extra time this thing is getting over water with a decent environment and the potential for some disastrously slow movement.

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Thinking of turtlehurricane this morning.  May he face the passage of any remaining spiral bands with stiff resolve and courage of conviction. 

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29 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Radar clearly showing the LLC heading SW and the convection starting to realign closer to the center. It should be back over water soon. This northerly shear and slow movement isn't great news for places further west like NO.

Need to be wary of both the extra time this thing is getting over water with a decent environment and the potential for some disastrously slow movement.

It’s definitely in one of those eye brow raising spots given past TCs near there, moving WNW into the gulf. 

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4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Biggest threat might be rain. Slow moving , rains out near Mississippi.  Èuro with a 36 inch max. 

Screenshot_20200912-045734_Chrome.jpg

The rainfall threat is certainly something to be watched.

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow

received_763781717753149.png

What’s it going to take for people to stop posting the NAM for tropical?

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45 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Radar clearly showing the LLC heading SW and the convection starting to realign closer to the center. It should be back over water soon. This northerly shear and slow movement isn't great news for places further west like NO.

Need to be wary of both the extra time this thing is getting over water with a decent environment and the potential for some disastrously slow movement.

 

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s definitely in one of those eye brow raising spots given past TCs near there, moving WNW into the gulf. 

Definitely looking more organized coming off the coast than it did coming in on radar, and that was a big initial question in my mind. The further south location helped IMO. It was close to being named last night. 

I guess there are still shear questions but I think this is starting to look like all systems go. We’ll see if that shear near the northern gulf coast materializes but if it doesn’t this is real trouble for someone.

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Yes, it is the NAM, and I  realize its limitations for tropics, but I also am wary of the geographical position of the storm and its speed and prior precedents of what can happen as CS Navy has mentioned.

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On radar it is pretty clear the center is coming off the southwestern tip of the FL Peninsula near Gator Lake or so. It is on the northern side of the CDO for the time being.

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18 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Elevated station, though.

Yeah 110ft or so I think. They actually peaked with 40 knots sustained with gusts to 46 knots. It is basically extremely close to being named and will be in short order.

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10 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah 110ft or so I think. They actually peaked with 40 knots sustained with gusts to 46 knots. It is basically extremely close to being named and will be in short order.

Concur here, probably either the 2 or 5pm update.

Once it's over water and some has some time to wrap convection upshear tonight, it may take off.

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