Hurricane Sally

[Joseph Torre]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. I saw that in the article. Better one than one hundred..

Don't forget Imelda in that list of slow moving storms. That was a huge rain maker too. 

Yep. And Imelda caused $5 billion in damage. I'd assume Sally is also a billion dollar disaster. Isaias caused over $5 billion, and Laura caused at least $10 billion. If you type in "list of costliest Atlantic hurricanes" it will bring you to a site that shows all the hurricanes that caused over 1 billion, and the top ten. The 10th costliest was Florence, which caused about $24 billion. Michael caused about $25 billion Costliest is Harvey and Katrina at $125 billion. 

[Windspeed]

Incredible that Sally is still off the coast at 1 AM CDT tonight (Wednesday). By the time it's nearing landfall, it's own precipitation envelope near the core and especially between the center and the coast will have cooled SSTs further to the point it begins to lose thermal support. Unless Sally picks up forward motion, I am becoming doubtful it will maintain hurricane intensity through landfall. There may even be a few periods of intensification today only to finally succumb to the loss of heat flux and lapse rates over night due to an expanding cold pool. The low-level pressure gradient may broaden significantly as well. Having said that, flooding is the gorilla regardless if Sally manages to be classified a minimal 'cane or makes landfall as a tropical storm.

This morning's 06z HWRF run has landfall for Sally around 06z (2 AM CDT) over night. That being said, it has a strengthening hurricane into landfall at 967 mb with a clear eye on simulated IR. I'd be very skeptical of that modeled intensity. I am not sure the real-time environmental changes under the hood would support such a scenario. Though ocean-coupled, I'd speculate that realistic SST profile input and projection data would lag for model output.

Bust. Bust. Bust. This storm certainly did not do what I expected, which was weaken prior to landfall. I am pretty astounded Sally managed to pull off essentially what yesterday's HWRF runs modeled. I had convinced myself that the SSTs would cool significantly enough for the hurricane to lose thermal support. Boy did I bust on that. Made me look a fool.

[Amped]

A buoy on the east edge of Mobile Bay measured pressure of 967.5 when the center went by. Josh measured 968.9.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=bsca1

 

A different Buoy in the bay had winds sustained 85kt with gusts to 105kt

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=fmoa1

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Bust. Bust. Bust. This storm certainly did not do what I expected, which was weaken prior to landfall. I am pretty astounded Sally managed to pull off essentially what yesterday's HWRF runs modeled. I had convinced myself that the SSTs would cool significantly enough for the hurricane to lose thermal support. Boy did I bust on that. Made me look a fool.

Same here. Did not think after churning in the same place all day with no decrease in shear that sally would be anything other than steady state. The storm looked like a dang major moving in. Weather humbles us all the time. HWRF nailing these gulf systems 

[brianc33710]

Maybe Sally's strengthening shouldn't have come as much of a surprise as it did. Tropical systems often drop in pressure hours ahead of increased winds. I guess we underestimated her organization Tuesday afternoon/early evening.

While she was entirely of a different animal, Katrina's pressure plunged the night before, then the windspeeds exploded overnight/early morning, jumping from 115 mph to 160 by daybreak, then further to 175 before noon that day. 

As an aside, I have friends in Foley & Lillian who had large trees fall on their houses. With up to 3' rain it'll be a while before crews can come out & survey their/the damage. 

[TPAwx]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I wonder if these painfully slow moving storms increasing in frequency is the beginning of a long term climate trend or just an unfortunate coincidence. Harvey, Florence, and Sally all produced over 30 inches of rain 

Increased oceanic heat content + increased available moisture + systemic breakdown of atmospheric steering currents are all reasonable  assumptions.

But of course this (observed science) is a sensitive topic to some, and likely best covered in other threads.

 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Bust. Bust. Bust. This storm certainly did not do what I expected, which was weaken prior to landfall. I am pretty astounded Sally managed to pull off essentially what yesterday's HWRF runs modeled. I had convinced myself that the SSTs would cool significantly enough for the hurricane to lose thermal support. Boy did I bust on that. Made me look a fool.

You confessed instead of dodging and pointing finger which is almost as good as nailing it

When the upwelling of shallow water is referenced, what depth are we talking about?

[randym77]

This is a brand new bridge.  Completed in February, except for the pedestrian walkway.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">So.. a portion of the three mile bridge in Pensacola is missing... good grief. <a href="https://t.co/yPYzyWMuiW">pic.twitter.com/yPYzyWMuiW</a></p>&mdash; Garrett Harvey (@WeatherGarrett) <a href="https://twitter.com/WeatherGarrett/status/1306249630943006720?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 16, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Orangeburgwx]

You confessed instead of dodging and pointing finger which is almost as good as nailing it
When the upwelling of shallow water is referenced, what depth are we talking about?

The bouy offshore that got hammered by the eye wall has a water depth of 25.9m (84.9 feet). I just looked at the 2m water temp and it never dropped, it stayed constant at 83.1°F the entire time

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

[WEATHER53]

Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

The bouy offshore that got hammered by the eye wall has a water depth of 25.9m (84.9 feet). I just looked at the 2m water temp and it never dropped, it stayed constant at 83.1°F the entire time

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Is that because instead of being cooler at 80 feet that it’s almost same as surface?

[Windspeed]

You confessed instead of dodging and pointing finger which is almost as good as nailing it When the upwelling of shallow water is referenced, what depth are we talking about? 

 

The shelf is shallow, on a gentle slope from 25m to 100m that Sally traversed so the 26°C isotherm is likely right down to 30 meter bottom depth. So cooler 26°C water was no doubt being upwelled due to the slow movement of the circulation. However, heavy of precipitation training over the same locations for 36 hours would have been the bigger issue as within Sally's own wake significant mixing was occuring based on buoy data. But there was obviously just enough thermal heat flux remaining from SSTs in the final 8 hours prior to landfall to support sufficient lapse rates and intense convection. Clearly, improving atmospheric dynamics mattered. We have seen plenty of slow moving storms in this location weaken. I certainly did not expect Sally to drop 15 hPa in the final 8 hours after that prolonged stall and crawl into landfall.

[SENC]

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

The bouy offshore that got hammered by the eye wall has a water depth of 25.9m (84.9 feet). I just looked at the 2m water temp and it never dropped, it stayed constant at 83.1°F the entire time

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Think the GOM; "Loop" current Kept the SST temp's up, (even though it's somewhat Shallow shelf waters).. Thus, upwelling isn't much of a factor.. On a Fishing & Boating Forum, this was explicitly talked about..

Same with other (Past) GOM Storms..

Same Occurred with Hurricane Isaias, I'm fairly certain, I don't believe that the "Models" has this factored in Much, (currently)..

Just a Guess & Theory, on My part..  

[Ginx snewx]

Down welling is a thing too.Phil Pappin

[Windspeed]

Down welling is a thing too.Phil Pappin

Yes, this actually occurred during Hurricane Gilbert on the north coast of the Yucatan. SSTs are climatologically cool there even during the months when the GOM has its highest mean temperature. It has weakened a number of storms. Isidore comes to mind. That being said, when Gilbert was traversing the NW Caribbean in '88, it's circulation was so large that it caused downwelling along the northern Yucatan. SSTs spiked from 26°C to 29°C as water transported along the surface from a warm thermocline eddy. This actually helped Gilbert's core remain fairly organized as it moved across the far northern Yucatan peninsula.

[Calderon]

On 9/12/2020 at 4:34 AM, Calderon said:

There seems to be a pretty decent consensus among forecasters I know that the conservative forecast has a great than 75% chance of being under by at least 30kts for max intensity. This includes me personally, as I'm going with a 105mph landfall at Pascagoula. 

The angle of approach into MS/LA is almost exactly perfect for maximum push for surge.  

Well, I was off by 50 miles.

[the ghost of leroy]

9 minutes ago, Calderon said:

Well, I was off by 50 miles.

Your call was pretty good especially since many of us were shitting on talk of a stronger system. 

[NorthHillsWx]

7 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Your call was pretty good especially since many of us were shitting on talk of a stronger system. 

Me included... 

[Prospero]

29 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Your call was pretty good especially since many of us were shitting on talk of a stronger system. 

Your Banter lead:

Quote

storm's gonna suck and i am going to be here to document it for you

You are a fun one to follow, GoL.

[the ghost of leroy]

My job is to get the juices flowing. No obligation to be correct. 

[Prospero]

31 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

My job is to get the juices flowing. No obligation to be correct. 

If you get bored, jump into the Shake-Spear Authorship dialog. Vicious as all get out. Being Shake-Speare's Prospero (Dr. John Dee), who was a respected storm maker in the 1500's, I know for a fact that Bacon wrote Shake-Spear. Francis Bacon was my son, Elizabeth I was his mom. What can I say, she was hot for her Astrologer.

[the ghost of leroy]

2 minutes ago, Prospero said:

If you get bored, jump into the Shake-Spear Authorship dialog. Viscous as all get out. Being Shake-Speare's Prospero (Dr. John Dee), who was a respected storm maker in the 1500's, I know for a fact that Bacon wrote Shake-Spear. Francis Bacon was my son, Elizabeth I was his mom. What can I say, she was hot for her Astrologer.

Now that my wife and I have finished selling sunset I am looking for new materials to consume. Thanks. 

[Calends]

14 minutes ago, Prospero said:

If you get bored, jump into the Shake-Spear Authorship dialog. Vicious as all get out. Being Shake-Speare's Prospero (Dr. John Dee), who was a respected storm maker in the 1500's, I know for a fact that Bacon wrote Shake-Spear. Francis Bacon was my son, Elizabeth I was his mom. What can I say, she was hot for her Astrologer.

Ned Vere wrote the plays.. And that is a hill I will die on.  Actually, I've been dying on it for 20 years. 

[NavarreDon]

Got a mess in the backyard but otherwise all is well.





.

[Prospero]

18 minutes ago, Calends said:

Ned Vere wrote the plays.. And that is a hill I will die on.  Actually, I've been dying on it for 20 years. 

Wasn't he already dead when so much came out? Nobody threw him into the mix until 1917. Bacon died and his many friends were suggesting he was the author in 1626.

At least you know Willy Shakspur was a fake.

Yea, I know, way OFF TOPIC.

[Prospero]

Sally is giving us in Tampa Bay a little good night kiss with a spectacular lightning show.

Been a long relationship, and she was kind to us.

Good night, Sally.

[ncforecaster89]

12 hours ago, Amped said:

A buoy on the east edge of Mobile Bay measured pressure of 967.5 when the center went by. Josh measured 968.9.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=bsca1

 

A different Buoy in the bay had winds sustained 85kt with gusts to 105kt

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=fmoa1

My kestrel measured a lowest pressure of 966.4 mb in Orange Beach.  Winds were certainly gusting to, and above, 100 knots in many areas in between Fort Morgan and Perdido Key.  There were more than 8 palm trees snapped within 50 yards of my hotel. 

[the ghost of leroy]

6 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

My kestrel measured a lowest pressure of 966.4 mb in Orange Beach.  Winds were certainly gusting to, and above, 100 knots in many areas in between Fort Morgan and Perdido Key.  There were more than 8 palm trees snapped within 50 yards of my hotel. 

Did you get better footage than icyclone?

[ncforecaster89]

3 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

Did you get better footage than icyclone?

Have no idea, honestly.  Since I don’t personally  consider “chasing” any sort of sport or competition...it wouldn’t matter to me, either way.  That’s not why I do it  

During each respective chase, I’m only focused on trying to do the best job I can do to simply gather data, document the event, and help those less fortunate for a few hours in the immediate aftermath.

As far as Josh (Icylone) is concerned, I consider him a friend and always wish him the very best in all his chases.  There’s way too much to do in these chases that there’s simply no time available to follow what any other chaser is doing...and I’m pretty sure it’s the same for him as well.  That said, I’ll look forward to seeing his footage and read his superbly written chase reports in the very near future.  

[Jackstraw]

These river gauge forecasts upstream of landfall are pretty scary.  I counted 10 to the N, E and NE of Cola up into AL and GA forecasted to be very near or above record levels later today through Saturday . Storms thankfully for once moving a little quicker than forecast.  I hope the heavier precip shield stays SE of the mtn's.  I remember going up to our family cabin in Maggy a couple weeks after Ivan (and Frances).  Seeing 75 foot tall trees looking like clotheslines was pretty humbling.

I would also like to file a formal complaint with College of Dupage for screwing up their radar website by integrating into the Sat page.  What a pain in the Arse!

[Floydbuster]

What a storm. Like I've said before, I see 2020 as a less-insane version of 2005.

Cristobal = Cindy

Hanna/Isaias = Dennis/Emily

Laura = Katrina

Sally = Rita

not identical, obviously. But you can see the similarities. Now the question is, do we get Hurricane Stan, Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Beta of 2005 in October and November?