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Hurricane Sally

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1208 AM     FLOOD            PENSACOLA NAS           30.35N 87.32W
09/16/2020                   ESCAMBIA           FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            18.25IN OF RAIN AT NAS PENSACOLA. REPORTED
            BY A TRAINED SPOTTER.

With the surge, that water is not going to drain either.

 

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13 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Imagine experiencing hurricane intensity winds Continuously  for 10+ hours ?  There is a potential of that around Gulf Shores today. 

The poor folks under Dorian last year could probably tell us about that...mercy

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Guess Sally huff and puffed one more time eh?  Pensacola gauge already in the top 10 highest water level.  Obvious tidal piling with high tide coming in. Buoy 42012 gusting close to Cat 3 in the NE eyewall.  Crazy stuff.

 

pcla.JPG

42012.JPG

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Radar shows a wild mesovortex rotating around the eye.  Currently on the northwest side.  You can see the signature reading as a smalley eye-like feature

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When will the GFS accept that there are flaws in their model? Time after time after time in the last couple years, and especially this year, GFS has wayyyyy undershot. Imo, as a citizen on the coast,  I would rather be overly prepared and it not be as bad as predicted, than the other way around, ALL DAY. It’s getting to the point where I don’t even look at the GFS and Euro, but all the media stations and sites still use it. It’s irresponsible, it’s time to re-evaluate and learn from mistakes. The atmosphere and ocean are changing, but their formula stays the same. Up until really this year, people have always given the HWRF and HMON shit and not taken them seriously, but that’s all I trust now, the hurricane models. I will day that the NHC has done a better job with Sally on atleast splitting the difference between the bullish HWRF/HMON and bearish GFS/Euro. If you are paying attention and keeping score, the bulls are undefeated against the bears this season. 
 

And for god sakes GFS, please, please, please do a better job of making the initialization and past hour forecasts match the real live data at 0 hours. When you initialize something as a 55 mph storm and it’s actually a hurricane already, clearly, the rest of the model run will be flawed. The GFS is broken, but it is what is being used to warn and prepare millions of Americans along our coasts. I 
 

End rant

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Just now, Torchageddon said:

I just realized in that special NHC advisory that they didn't put INLAND at the end of the 12 hr forecast point...the NHC thinks this won't be in by 12? Huh?

Yep, they have another 24 hours before the center crosses the coast.  Even mentioned border line major possible before landfall.  And that was Stewart on the disco so grains of salt not needed ;)

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14 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

I just realized in that special NHC advisory that they didn't put INLAND at the end of the 12 hr forecast point...the NHC thinks this won't be in by 12? Huh?

It's a bit deceiving but that's not true.  The forecast was initialized at 630Z, which was the intermediate update at 130am, and then the 12Z prediction that says 12H, which is 12 hours from the original initialation, but 5 and a half hours from the intermediate.  So what it is really saying is it will not have landfallen by 630am and will have 110mph winds, it should landfall shortly after that

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11 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Yep, they have another 24 hours before the center crosses the coast.  Even mentioned border line major possible before landfall.  And that was Stewart on the disco so grains of salt not needed ;)

This isn't true either, i would say the center will be inland within the next 4-6 hours

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1 minute ago, MSUgulfcoaster said:

This isn't true either, i would say the center will be inland within the next 4-6 hours

That post was sarcasm. 

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Buoy 42012 forty miles offshore has been in sustained hurricane force winds and gusts of 100 + for 3.5 hours! That's "will it ever end" territory.  I'd like to strap Patrowski to that thing then his maniacal screams might be legit :thumbsup:

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So, is anybody else realizing Sally is making landfall at the exact same location that Ivan did on the same date, just a few hours later, and only 15mph less (for now)?

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2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

These winds are insane. Clearly bursting down to the surface. Dauphin Island and Gulf Shores getting pounded.

I think people in Gulf Shores to Pensacola are getting a bit more than they were expecting. Instead of a borderline cat 1 you have a slow moving borderline cat 3. Plus the excessive rainfall to boot.

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It's certainly moving on the fast side of guidance (GFS nailed the timing I believe). 

It looks like the east side of the eyewall has expanded somewhat. Should Be pounding Pensacola soon

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2 minutes ago, Calderon said:

That post was sarcasm. 

;)  Right or wrong it certainly had more bearing than 500 words on how everyone's an idiot for even looking at the GFS or Euro.  God knows the HWRF and it's crack morphed GFDL brother have decades of accuracy to back them up.

3 minutes ago, Calderon said:

So, is anybody else realizing Sally is making landfall at the exact same location that Ivan did on the same date, just a few hours later, and only 15mph less (for now)?

Pensacola gauge now nearly 4 feet with high tide coming in peaking in about 6 hours.  May not hit Ivan levels of 9.5 but could surpass Katrina at 5.4. (Notice how I end my post with relevancy?) :raining:

 

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12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It's certainly moving on the fast side of guidance (GFS nailed the timing I believe). 

It looks like the east side of the eyewall has expanded somewhat. Should Be pounding Pensacola soon

Will still take 2-3 more hours for the center across the coast. Euro was too slow for sure.

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Just now, Jackstraw said:

No surge in Mobile Bay with the E shift thank goodness.  Brave ones could go out and start scraping crabs off the bottom.  

 

 

mobilrlf.JPG

I have family that live about 5 miles up the Dog River, it was not looking good for them 36 hours ago, I was worried.  The Dog River is about halfway up the bay on the west side, runs NW to SE, and is only 8 miles long.  It's setup is prime for a nightmare storm surge event if a major hurricane were to landfall on the MS/AL line, that onshore flow would funnel unbelievable amounts of water straight up that thing with nowhere to go, .  Mobile always seems to dodge the bullets, fortunately.

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Geez, that was at 2:30am. Surge coming in fast in and around Pensacola, some of these little creeks that empty into the bays around there will experience historic flooding.

tinger11.png

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Just a crazy long-duration landfall. Pensacola hasn't even got the worst yet. Hopefully Sally begins weakening soon with nearly half the northern semicircle inland.
e78c75b974aacede58efe5e14c66752f.gif

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Just got off the phone with a good friend in Pensacola.  Lives about a mile from the coast.  He and his wife were in the bathroom with their dog.  He told me wind wise this is way worse than Ivan or any storm in the area in the 30 years they've lived there.  Said they've been getting pummeled with consistent violent downbursts, not lateral gusts, violent downbursts,  for the last hour.or so. He also said Sally has been beating the shit out of the coast there for nearly 36 hours. He's retired Navy, 15 of those years as a carrier fighter jock.  For him to be in the bathroom during this storm it has to be scary at his location.  We both got our pilots license at 16 together to save money and he's worse than I am when it comes to recreational foolish fearlessness lol..  He also said he had talked to some local friends and it's flooding like a mutha, in his words lol.  

  Regardless, looks like Sally is getting close to landfall around Gulf Shores.  The sooner it crosses the shore the better.  Unfortunately points E still look to have another 6 to 10 hours of onshore flow not to mention precip.

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