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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Sally

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3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

115mph converted after reduction

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Wow!  Cat 3, no?

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Just now, hlcater said:

It basically comes down to whether or not the NHC thinks a mesovort represents the max sustained. I could really see them going either way here.

I would think politically it would be better to up it to Cat.3 in terms of getting FEMA money, no?

  • Weenie 3

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Wow...

000
WTNT64 KNHC 160555
TCUAT4


Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
100 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...SALLY CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN, A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS COMING OUT 
SHORTLY...

Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and 
the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Sally's
maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 mph (165 km/h). 

Further strengthening is possible, and a Special Advisory will be 
issued within 15 minutes in lieu of the intermediate advisory to 
update the intensity forecast.


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 87.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Blake
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10 minutes ago, Normandy said:

I am personally stunned that upwelling has not weakened this storm yet.  Models sniffed this out too.  Would love to hear pro mets chime in on why this happened.

I’m sure the set up of the jet stream and land interaction has aided in its intensification over the last 6 hours or so. Also, it is sitting over a spot of the Northeastern gulf where the shelf doesn’t extend out as far as other regions. Upwelling has kept it from going into rapid intensification, there are a lot of little factors that have been helping to intensify Sally, upwelling has mitigated the level of intensification. 
 

look at this map, there is plenty of TCPW out there for Sally in her little nook of the Gulf, lol. Also, she has been feeding and feeding off the moisture from her SW, the Gulf Stream brings that area a constant supply of Warm waters, like a conveyer belt, while it’s deep waters help retain it. Without upwelling this would be a major right now. 

59D7D251-1BE0-43C7-9759-E252C8F82B00.jpeg

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...SALLY CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN, A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS COMING OUT 
SHORTLY...

 

Stewart might pull the trigger on Cat 3 if these winds keep up.

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Recon turned right back around to the center after that last insane pass through the NE eye wall, they are probably heading back through it as we speak. They are testing to see if those numbers in the NE eye wall hold up a second time, if so, they will update Hurricane Sally to Major Hurricane Sally in an intermediate advisory. 

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Recon turned right back around to the center after that last insane pass through the NE eye wall, they are probably heading back through it as we speak. They are testing to see if those numbers in the NE eye wall hold up a second time, if so, they will update Hurricane Sally to Major Hurricane Sally in an intermediate advisory. 
Smart play, I bet even they were like "what the hell did we just catch..."

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Probably not ideal to have an eyewall with 100+ mph winds parked over an area for hours that has already seen 15-20” of rainfall and currently has a flash flood emergency. Oh, and then there’s the storm surge that continues to build to the east towards Pensacola. This is quickly turning into a very ugly situation for those on AL/W FL Gulf Coast.

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17 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Did you see my original post?  The "wow" was inside the report by accident so I at least moved it outside of the report, lol...

Oh dang so they actually said that? Haha Must be legit surprise on their end

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Teddy is now a cane.  That’s three active canes in the Atlantic. Pretty soon NhC will need to buy more recon planes Just to keep up. 

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6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I think all of us need to give a round of applause to that AF305 crew for how long they spent in the storm.

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They are probably weather nerds just like us, staring at their computer waiting for the latest dropsonde velocity data to come in. Only difference is we are on the couch and they are flying through the eye in an airplane. We aren’t so different, I bet they look forward to these flights, what a rush it would be. 

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They are probably weather nerds just like us, staring at their computer waiting for the latest dropsonde velocity data to come in. Only difference is we are on the couch and they are flying through the eye in an airplane. We aren’t so different, I bet they look forward to these flights, what a rush it would be. 
THEY GOING IN AGAIN!



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DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 130 AM CDT (0630 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler
weather radars near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 87.8 West. Sally
is moving toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A
north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster
forward speed is expected later today and tonight, followed by a
faster northeastward motion on Thursday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast this morning, 
and make landfall in the hurricane warning area later today.  
Sally is then expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama 
tonight.

Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and 
the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Maximum 
sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with 
higher gusts.  Some further strengthening is possible before Sally 
makes landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall occurs.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the 
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles 
(205 km). A sustained wind of 81 mph (130 km/h) with a gust to 110 
mph (178 km/h) was recently reported in Sally's northern eyewall by 
NOAA buoy 42012, located about 50 miles southeast of Mobile, 
Alabama. A sustained wind of 72 mph (117 km/h) and a gust to 90 mph 
(144 km/h) were recently measured by the NOAA C-MAN observing 
station on Dauphin Island, Alabama.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Hurricane 
Hunters was 968 mb (28.58 inches).

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Imagine experiencing hurricane intensity winds Continuously  for 10+ hours ?  There is a potential of that around Gulf Shores today. 

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