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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Sally

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Here’s the sonde in the NW eyewall 

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 3:47Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 
Storm Number: 19
Storm Name: Sally (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 25 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 4Z on the 16th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 29.9N 88.1W
Location: 54 statute miles (87 km) to the S (180°) from Mobile, AL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb -162m (-531 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
982mb (29.00 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.8°C (78°F) 5° (from the N) 78 knots (90 mph)
925mb 525m (1,722 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 21.8°C (71°F) 25° (from the NNE) 106 knots (122 mph)
850mb 1,261m (4,137 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 19.1°C (66°F) 35° (from the NE) 84 knots (97 mph)
700mb 2,924m (9,593 ft) 13.4°C (56.1°F) 13.4°C (56°F) 40° (from the NE) 74 knots (85 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 3:36Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 315° (NW) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.91N 88.08W
- Time: 3:36:18Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 29.82N 88.14W
- Time: 3:40:43Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 15° (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 96 knots (110 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 30° (from the NNE)
- Wind Speed: 86 knots (99 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 981mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 5° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 83 knots (96 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
982mb (Surface) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.8°C (78°F)
913mb 21.6°C (70.9°F) 21.6°C (71°F)
861mb 19.8°C (67.6°F) 19.5°C (67°F)
850mb 20.8°C (69.4°F) 19.1°C (66°F)
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
982mb (Surface) 5° (from the N) 78 knots (90 mph)
977mb 5° (from the N) 79 knots (91 mph)
958mb 10° (from the N) 95 knots (109 mph)
946mb 15° (from the NNE) 109 knots (125 mph)
933mb 20° (from the NNE) 103 knots (119 mph)
910mb 25° (from the NNE) 109 knots (125 mph)
903mb 30° (from the NNE) 102 knots (117 mph)
895mb 30° (from the NNE) 103 knots (119 mph)
850mb 35° (from the NE) 84 knots (97 mph)
762mb 35° (from the NE) 83 knots (96 mph)
709mb 45° (from the NE) 65 knots (75 mph)
696mb 40° (from the NE) 81 knots (93 mph)

 

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Update, WOW. Pressure around 971, surface winds up to ~95mph on the NW eye wall. 
 

I’m not sure if the NHC will pull the trigger on the upgrade, but Sally is a Cat 2 storm right now. 

B720B09B-E72C-4BFB-829F-8EACD1E627ED.png

53CBEA4D-5F4B-4E3F-97B3-1D65BAF4F4FA.png

AF873D40-7858-4DA0-BECB-646F6D719654.png

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That northern eyewall looks like it's packing quite a punch. In some ways, this will be more damaging than a fast moving Cat 3 because it's going to pound the same areas for many hours, even days perhaps.

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3 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Eyewall is now closed per recon

Not exactly sure when people are going to realize that with landfalling storms you can't judge the far side of the eyewall based on radar. We do this every damn time there is a landfalling storm, and amazingly it is always the further side of the eyewall that is open not the near side.

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Starting to see Cat 3 bins at 5k feet... (Bunch of them in that one shot)74bc16a535a4319b4ecaaaac66a0be26.jpg&key=93f7cb0bf3e7884e6f3e9d80a793ac3998b5d44868604d0aefb235127600211e

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk


This escalated quickly... Lot more popped up5780c809174d60242e796220c3121836.jpg

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

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Land interaction is no doubt allowing Sally to flex her muscles on her way to the finish line. With that low of a central pressure and land interaction to aid the cause, i would expect Sally to hit category 2 strength before landfall. Makes no difference either way, the water is coming regardless of category. 
 

Sally has taken a definite due north turn in the last 2 hours or so, still crawling, but crawling ashore. Pensacola looks to be the spot that never escapes the eastern eye wall, I don’t really expect much wind damage other than downed trees, but the water is obviously the story, flooding in that area, both fresh and salt water combined, will be historic. Stay safe everyone. 

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Western eye wall flight level winds lower than I would have expected but extrapolated surface winds right around 90 mph. Extrapolated pressure down to around 968. One thing is certain, Sally is slowly but surely intensifying into landfall. 

76F1AF1C-CD4E-4D76-BE82-4F707AD62DD3.png

DA53F8EB-8359-4C4F-A857-9D5EB8FD5520.png

03D6A372-6C9A-4169-92C5-16A428CBAB53.png

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1 minute ago, MSUgulfcoaster said:

Western eye wall flight level winds lower than I would have expected but extrapolated surface winds right around 90 mph. Extrapolated pressure down to around 968. One thing is certain, Sally is slowly but surely intensifying into landfall. 

76F1AF1C-CD4E-4D76-BE82-4F707AD62DD3.png

DA53F8EB-8359-4C4F-A857-9D5EB8FD5520.png

03D6A372-6C9A-4169-92C5-16A428CBAB53.png

FL winds of over 100 knots on the eastern side. 

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Eye developing an elongated oval shape past hour, she's definitely feeling the land interaction right now. Her southern eyewall is ramping up as well with stronger cat 3 velocities on radar 

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This thing is just crawling. Gonna be worse than your average ~cat 2 because of that. Aside from extreme rain and respectable surge, some areas may be in for 100mph winds for many hours.

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Latest VDM 

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 4:36Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 
Storm Number & Year: 19 in 2020
Storm Name: Sally (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 28 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 4:16:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29.79N 87.83W
B. Center Fix Location: 58 statute miles (94 km) to the SW (220°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,856m (9,370ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 970mb (28.65 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 335° at 5kts (From the NNW at 6mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 80kts (92.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the W (273°) of center fix at 4:12:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 13° at 74kts (From the NNE at 85.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the W (272°) of center fix at 4:09:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 81kts (93.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the E (89°) of center fix at 4:22:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 175° at 102kts (From the S at 117.4mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the E (89°) of center fix at 4:23:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,035m (9,957ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2.25 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 102kts (~ 117.4mph) which was observed 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the E (89°) from the flight level center at 4:23:30Z
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