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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Sally

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Intensifying storm at landfall is a lot more vigorous and damaging than a weakening storm. Even at these Cat 1 wind speeds this will be a serious hurricane for everyone that gets the eyewall. 

Notably, Sally has really connected with the subtropical jet, which is what's driving this intensification I believe. That plus the frictional convergence is at a perfect amount to tighten the core without disrupting the core, and this effect will increase big time in the coming hours as the eyewall starts touching the shore, could lead to the eye closing off rapidly, and we're seeing hints of that. Basically friction generates lots of vorticity, which is then tilted up into the eyewall and makes the storm spin faster. With the upper level support, it's a perfect recipe for rapid intensification. 

If it really stays offshore through the night, which looks likely, we could easily be looking at Major Hurricane Sally by the time landfall comes. 

As for surge, looks like Mobile Bay will be spared, and in-fact the winds are draining out the bay. Far southeast Alabama and the Pensacola area, and in particular Pensacola Bay, Escambia Bay and East Bay, are about to get a catastrophic storm surge it appears. This storm surge will be far greater than what is typical for whatever category it is at landfall due to slow movement and the shallow shelf waters. 

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Someone on the coast is going to get absolutely pummeled with ridiculous surge with how slow this thing is moving. Being in the eyewall of this thing is gonna feel like hours and hours of hell (by non-major cane standards).

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16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Okay I get super confused on extrapolated pressure. Is that what their estimating at the sfc based on the dropsonde? I saw someone said 969.7 extrap

I believe it's just the estimated surface pressure based on the data at flight level.  The dropsonde tells what the surface pressure actually is, which is usually a few mb higher than the extrap pressure.

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I believe it's just the estimated surface pressure based on the data at flight level.  The dropsonde tells what the surface pressure actually is, which is usually a few mb higher the extrap pressure.

Thank you. Appreciate that! 

 

2 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

Last VDM had the eye open SE. 32 mile diameter.

Not surprising. Radar returns weaker in that area. Could prevent this from really taking off. Either maintain where it is or strengthen only a little. But Sally hasn't been doing anything conventionally 

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Thank you. Appreciate that! 

 

Not surprising. Radar returns weaker in that area. Could prevent this from really taking off. Either maintain where it is or strengthen only a little. But Sally hasn't been doing anything conventionally 

Honestly I’m not really sure what it will do at this point (don’t see us mets admit that too often do you?).  Radar presentation has improved in the last 2 hours but the returns on the south side are getting a bit weaker again. I think the weakening or radar returns is due to that spiral band on the west side weakening (band was hiding how weak the eyewall was at the intersection). I think the best bet is maybe a bit more strengthening (5-10kt) before leveling off. We will just have to watch trends on that south eyewall and see how it evolves. If it stays weak I expect that 5-10kt of strengthening. If it closes we may get more, but I still think full close is pretty unlikely at this point. 

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Some people are ignoring that we are over shelf waters and the hurricane has been in the area for over 24 hours. Sooner or later we are going to start to lose core convection due to upwelling.

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Just now, hlcater said:

Some people are ignoring that we are over shelf waters and the hurricane has been in the area for over 24 hours. Sooner or later we are going to start to lose core convection due to upwelling.

ive never ignored it, but sally kinda has for a bit

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1 minute ago, hlcater said:

Some people are ignoring that we are over shelf waters and the hurricane has been in the area for over 24 hours. Sooner or later we are going to start to lose core convection due to upwelling.

That’s one of the big reasons why I don’t think the eyewall will fully close. Upwelling combined with the dry air intrusions (and I think there’s still shear? I haven’t checked that recently) are going to keep it in check.

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Aaaaand the southern eyewall looks like it is opening back up again. Rinse & repeat...

Not negating the impacts by any means, appears to be a fairly wide wind field to go with the already well-established rain and surge threats. I’d wager someone in between Mobile and Pensacola walks away with a 30” total by the time this is all said and done. Rough night ahead on the AL/FL Gulf Coast.

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The storm is looking a lot better on IR than it was even 6 hours ago, but the proximity to land and the shallow shelf waters are going to have a negative impact. I can see it strengthening a little before running low on juice, but storms that basically stall don't end up strengthening.

The other question is landfall location. Again, I'm going to say that everywhere that's getting at least TS gusts needs to be prepared for landfall. Stalled systems have a propensity to move in unpredictable directions for short periods of time. The models do best at predicting strong steering situations and worst at predicting weak steering situations.

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1 hour ago, NavarreDon said:

We are getting pounded right now!
831db70931530d3c4e89b0d0fd7de45e.jpg


.

Just left Juanas, where we sailed in the regatta. My uncle has place at beach colony. Left a bit early for obvious reasons. I Hope you and my Navarre friends stay safe! 

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Winds picking up. Flight level winds at ~95 knots in the SE eye wall. I’m guessing they will find a pressure in the 960s on this pass through the center. Sally is a weird one. Since this recon flight started, Sally has just moved basically due East a couple miles. This is crazy and I am done expecting anything from Sally. Sally does what Sally wants.

DA8F5A4A-6A3E-48F3-A35E-7D52B883C938.png

53F8A775-B2C4-4029-9605-A74386199479.png

5E7A45D5-8D97-4CA6-B4CA-7E8AE75A1B75.png

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Impressive area of 100+mph bins in the eastern and western eyewall of Sally on KMOB, albeit at a beam height of 4-7kft.

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That little blob off the coast of Tampa is producing a ton of lightning.

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Could probably justify nudging the intensity up to 80kt/90mph with those SFMR/FL readings recon just found. 

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

Good lord that is Cat 3143d3d40156bb6e9020e826684ed329a.jpg

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

That 969mb reading of 99kt is a gust.

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