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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Sally

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1 minute ago, Seminole said:

12Z HMON has COC of Sally in Mobile Bay 6Z Wed. 

 

It's too far north in the very short term- at 18Z has it at 29.6N, its only at about 29.2 right now.

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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

They eye seems to be making pretty decent northward progress the past hour or two

It still seems to be east of the forecast track.   Pensacola/Ft Walton Beach  Hurricane magnet possibly striking again

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 Models be damned there's an outside chance this storm could huff and puff one more time.  It's not upwelling "cold" water by any means, just cooling the bath water.  There's still fuel there.  The difference between 31C and 29C is RI and stready strengthening. Any slight relaxation in the shear could certainly allow for some strengthening or at least some strong convection resulting in much higher precip rates to bring the winds down to the surface. It still has an inner core which is more than it had yesterday morning.  Still strong Cat 2 105mph winds at 2- 4k feet. Just saying there's a potential, albeit low percentage, window of opportunity that, if occurs could blindside some folks.  

 Storm has got to be starting to get damn annoying for folks along the coastal region by just crawling.  Especially in 2020 when most of the year has been just damn annoying.  We all know there will be bad times but we expect them to come and go, not just keep beating us with the proverbial baseball bat.  With at least 36 more hours in the area it's got to be beating the crap out of SW LA marsh land and from some tidal measurements is starting to pile tides.  Another 2 or 3 high tides coming without being fully released on top of the hydro runoff.  Far from out of the woods.

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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

I think we’re going to see many areas east of the center easily exceed 24” of rain. The feeder band to the northeast has been barely moving for many hours and model guidance continues to poorly resolve this feature in terms of intensity vs real time radar....Pensacola to Panama City look like  potential jackpots...

In July 1997, Hurricane Danny stalled over the mouth of Mobile Bay as a 75 mph storm. Dauphin Island just south of Mobile County, recorded over 43" of rain. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherlover said:

Anyone heard any reports of how conditions are right along the coastline?   Winds, rain, coastal flooding etc?

Mike Seidel says Dauphin Island & Fort Morgan have had 60+ mph winds. 

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Anyone heard any reports of how conditions are right along the coastline?   Winds, rain, coastal flooding etc?

I’m wondering if the NCEP outage the other day disrupted storm report distribution. WeatherTAP has zero reports down there and it’s usually filled when we have a landfalling cyclone.


.

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7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The UK and Euro both now have a Florida landfall.

Pensacola - Navarre area but not as strong a system as the Hurricane Models are advertising 

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Just now, Seminole said:

Pensacola - Navarre area but not as strong a system as the Hurricane Models are advertising 

They have continued to show intensification which has not panned out. I would expect more or less steady state until landfall like the NHC has.

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Recon finds higher flight level winds in the NE quadrant (76 Knots) than the last pass (along with some hurricane force surface winds but they're flagged). 

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Pressure is still dropping steadily and the wind field is as symmetric as it's been. I don't know if the Recon will do another pass in the NE quadrant (it's been out in Sally for a crazy amount of passes) but there are likely 65 knot surface winds there now. 

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The west side of the storm is filling in with precip now, and the dry slot is shrinking.  Lets see how long it lasts.

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Quick update for you guys, after some long deliberations we’ve decided to stay in PSJ. Our home is secure, we have awesome neighbors, and I’ve ridden out multiple tropical systems including Erin in 95. The weather nerd in me as well as the home owner has tugged mightily to go west but at this point I feel the best decision is staying here. I think we all have the urge to give obs from inside a storm and I’m no different. After weighing the pros & cons....not going west is the choice we’ve made & I’m comfortable with it. Here’s to minimal damage, no loss of life, & us getting to do some scalloping by Saturday at least!


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Probably getting about to that distance where frictional effects will start kicking in and tightening the core.

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