Cheeznado Posted September 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Seminole said: 12Z HMON has COC of Sally in Mobile Bay 6Z Wed. It's too far north in the very short term- at 18Z has it at 29.6N, its only at about 29.2 right now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted September 15, 2020 982 mb now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brianc33710 Posted September 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 982 mb now. Last night 988 & 100, now 982 & 85; hmmm..... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
olafminesaw Posted September 15, 2020 They eye seems to be making pretty decent northward progress the past hour or two Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted September 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: They eye seems to be making pretty decent northward progress the past hour or two It still seems to be east of the forecast track. Pensacola/Ft Walton Beach Hurricane magnet possibly striking again Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jackstraw Posted September 15, 2020 Models be damned there's an outside chance this storm could huff and puff one more time. It's not upwelling "cold" water by any means, just cooling the bath water. There's still fuel there. The difference between 31C and 29C is RI and stready strengthening. Any slight relaxation in the shear could certainly allow for some strengthening or at least some strong convection resulting in much higher precip rates to bring the winds down to the surface. It still has an inner core which is more than it had yesterday morning. Still strong Cat 2 105mph winds at 2- 4k feet. Just saying there's a potential, albeit low percentage, window of opportunity that, if occurs could blindside some folks. Storm has got to be starting to get damn annoying for folks along the coastal region by just crawling. Especially in 2020 when most of the year has been just damn annoying. We all know there will be bad times but we expect them to come and go, not just keep beating us with the proverbial baseball bat. With at least 36 more hours in the area it's got to be beating the crap out of SW LA marsh land and from some tidal measurements is starting to pile tides. Another 2 or 3 high tides coming without being fully released on top of the hydro runoff. Far from out of the woods. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brianc33710 Posted September 15, 2020 2 hours ago, jbenedet said: I think we’re going to see many areas east of the center easily exceed 24” of rain. The feeder band to the northeast has been barely moving for many hours and model guidance continues to poorly resolve this feature in terms of intensity vs real time radar....Pensacola to Panama City look like potential jackpots... In July 1997, Hurricane Danny stalled over the mouth of Mobile Bay as a 75 mph storm. Dauphin Island just south of Mobile County, recorded over 43" of rain. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weatherlover Posted September 15, 2020 Anyone heard any reports of how conditions are right along the coastline? Winds, rain, coastal flooding etc? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brianc33710 Posted September 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, weatherlover said: Anyone heard any reports of how conditions are right along the coastline? Winds, rain, coastal flooding etc? Mike Seidel says Dauphin Island & Fort Morgan have had 60+ mph winds. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
friedmators Posted September 15, 2020 Anyone heard any reports of how conditions are right along the coastline? Winds, rain, coastal flooding etc?I’m wondering if the NCEP outage the other day disrupted storm report distribution. WeatherTAP has zero reports down there and it’s usually filled when we have a landfalling cyclone. . Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Doc Jon Posted September 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, weatherlover said: Anyone heard any reports of how conditions are right along the coastline? Winds, rain, coastal flooding etc? Here, try this - https://dauphin-island-south.click2stream.com https://www.livebeaches.com/city/dauphin-island-al/ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Doc Jon Posted September 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, brianc33710 said: Mike Seidel says Dauphin Island & Fort Morgan have had 60+ mph winds. check this out, it's gettin' nasty out there! The wind is blowing hard enough to kick this camera all over the place. https://dauphin-island-north1.click2stream.com 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted September 15, 2020 The UK and Euro both now have a Florida landfall. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Seminole Posted September 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The UK and Euro both now have a Florida landfall. Pensacola - Navarre area but not as strong a system as the Hurricane Models are advertising Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dan11295 Posted September 15, 2020 Just now, Seminole said: Pensacola - Navarre area but not as strong a system as the Hurricane Models are advertising They have continued to show intensification which has not panned out. I would expect more or less steady state until landfall like the NHC has. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthHillsWx Posted September 15, 2020 Per recon the center has been moving slowly northeast. Still failing to find hurricane force winds at the surface Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mob1 Posted September 15, 2020 Recon finds higher flight level winds in the NE quadrant (76 Knots) than the last pass (along with some hurricane force surface winds but they're flagged). Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormChaser4Life Posted September 15, 2020 Latest recon showing pressure lower to Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yeoman Posted September 15, 2020 How's the CoC looking? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mob1 Posted September 15, 2020 Pressure is still dropping steadily and the wind field is as symmetric as it's been. I don't know if the Recon will do another pass in the NE quadrant (it's been out in Sally for a crazy amount of passes) but there are likely 65 knot surface winds there now. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amped Posted September 15, 2020 The west side of the storm is filling in with precip now, and the dry slot is shrinking. Lets see how long it lasts. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hawkeye_wx Posted September 15, 2020 979 mb from the latest dropsonde (980 mb with 16 kt wind) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ravensrule Posted September 15, 2020 22 minutes ago, Yeoman said: How's the CoC looking? If you’re looking down probably not too good. 2 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NavarreDon Posted September 15, 2020 Quick update for you guys, after some long deliberations we’ve decided to stay in PSJ. Our home is secure, we have awesome neighbors, and I’ve ridden out multiple tropical systems including Erin in 95. The weather nerd in me as well as the home owner has tugged mightily to go west but at this point I feel the best decision is staying here. I think we all have the urge to give obs from inside a storm and I’m no different. After weighing the pros & cons....not going west is the choice we’ve made & I’m comfortable with it. Here’s to minimal damage, no loss of life, & us getting to do some scalloping by Saturday at least! . 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormChaser4Life Posted September 15, 2020 Sally trying hard to pop an eye. Man she won't give up 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Windspeed Posted September 15, 2020 Best the core has looked. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jojo762 Posted September 15, 2020 Probably getting about to that distance where frictional effects will start kicking in and tightening the core. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NavarreDon Posted September 15, 2020 Rainfall is already up to 8” in some areas since about 8:20pm last night!. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
friedmators Posted September 15, 2020 Probably getting about to that distance where frictional effects will start kicking in and tightening the core.About to do some frictional torquing myself. . 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Doc Jon Posted September 15, 2020 Sally is really kicking up hell on Dauphin island! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
