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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Sally

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14 minutes ago, Calderon said:

I get it, but we've also had multiple new folks lately say "eye this" and "eye that" without much in the way of discussion of substantiating evidence, so it's not exactly unexpected.

no prob.  It's just a pet peeve of mine.  I'm in academia where everyone plays the "my brain is bigger than yours" game, and in my field summary dismissal is kinda like throwing down a gauntlet or when a matador waves a red cloak in front of a bull.

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8 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

Is this a case of "looks can be deceiving" or is this the outline of the eye on IR?

Screen Shot 2020-09-14 at 11.56.25 PM.png

Not an eye. You can see the convective flare up collapse a few frames before that. Almost looked like some outflow boundaries choked off neighboring towers temporarily on radar. This looks like an increasingly sheared system. Have not looked at the shear analysis but the sw quadrant has seen increasingly restricted outflow and periodic intrusions of dry air that are choking off the developing eyewall and keeping the pulse variety convective flare ups. Steady state storm. I believe our max intensity has been reached 

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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Not an eye. You can see the convective flare up collapse a few frames before that. Almost looked like some outflow boundaries choked off neighboring towers temporarily on radar. This looks like an increasingly sheared system. Have not looked at the shear analysis but the sw quadrant has seen increasingly restricted outflow and periodic intrusions of dry air that are choking off the developing eyewall and keeping the pulse variety convective flare ups. Steady state storm. I believe our max intensity has been reached 

Well, with literally feet of rain in the forecast, we will take every break that we can get. 

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13 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

82AF4864-8310-4F63-A806-E7CF5DFC7F08.jpeg.42933836cbc6ad689cfda61b16504288.jpeg

new hot tower firing up in the Sigmoid region - moving into the Descending Colon.

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6 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Any storm surge experts here?  Surprises me with a MS/AL landfall that the surge east of there in AL (6-9' to Mobile Bay and only 4-7' from there to the AL/FL border) and even extreme NW FL (only 2-4') isn't greater than to the west of the storm in SE LA and SW MS (7-11').  Maybe that's because of the slow approach, which will have east to west winds for many hours as the storm crawls to the east of those locations with 7-11 surges predicted - maybe also topographical features in play here.  

 

[Image of cumulative wind history]

Going to give it one more try - posted the above at 5 pm asking why the storm surge forecasts are lower to the east of the storm's likely track than to the west and that continues with the 11 pm map of storm surge, although they did lower the forecast surge from 7-11' to 6-9' west of Ocean Springs MS to the Mouth of the Mississippi in LA, but even 6-9' is more than the 4-7'/2-4' surges east of the track.  Surely someone out there must know more about surges (I mentioned a couple of things in the post above, but not sure if they're correct).  Anyone?  

[Image of cumulative wind history]

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2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Going to give it one more try - posted the above at 5 pm asking why the storm surge forecasts are lower to the east of the storm's likely track than to the west and that continues with the 11 pm map of storm surge, although they did lower the forecast surge from 7-11' to 6-9' west of Ocean Springs MS to the Mouth of the Mississippi in LA, but even 6-9' is more than the 4-7'/2-4' surges east of the track.  Surely someone out there must know more about surges (I mentioned a couple of things in the post above, but not sure if they're correct).  Anyone?  

[Image of cumulative wind history]

just look at radar or ir and imagine all the water piling up at the 6-9 zone.  days of action.  

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It's because the area basically west of Mobile Bay is incredibly shallow for well over 100 miles offshore being that whole region used to be a delta lobe thousands of years. 

Below is a navigation chart for part of Mississippi Sound & Chandeleur Sound. You can see how even more shallow this already shallow section of the GOMEX is. 

 chandeleursoundalterateroute_noaa_survey

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Radar presentation seems to have degraded a good deal. Perhaps dry air is being ingested, but both the feeder bands and the core look pretty meh on KMOB presently. IR loop would seem to indicate that some reorganization might be happening.

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Speaking of shear... core has lost all organization across the southern semicircle. Not sure of another culprit. See if convection can wrap upshear from the NW. Outside of that ridiculous convective burst and several failed attempts to form an eyewall, this is a rather disorganized system 

E36F997D-F1D3-4F60-BD59-6C97F615C9D2.png

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12 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Going to give it one more try - posted the above at 5 pm asking why the storm surge forecasts are lower to the east of the storm's likely track than to the west and that continues with the 11 pm map of storm surge, although they did lower the forecast surge from 7-11' to 6-9' west of Ocean Springs MS to the Mouth of the Mississippi in LA, but even 6-9' is more than the 4-7'/2-4' surges east of the track.  Surely someone out there must know more about surges (I mentioned a couple of things in the post above, but not sure if they're correct).  Anyone?  

[Image of cumulative wind history]

a whole bunch of water being pushed into the Miss gulf coast and LA delta region and nowhere for it to go but onto land.

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58 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

looks like a june hurricane

Sally looks like it belongs in the far north atlantic.

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Sitting in the same  place is  killing  it. On the other  hand  time to start watching  its  2nd chance. GFS geting stronger and shows an actual storm now

 

slp32.png

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Downgraded to 85 MPH with the 4AM advisory, NHC expecting little to no change in intensity towards landfall. Big break for the gulf coast compared to what could have been but still expected to be a prolific rainmaker

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2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Sitting in the same  place is  killing  it. On the other  hand  time to start watching  its  2nd chance. GFS geting stronger and shows an actual storm now

 

slp32.png

Who cares what it does out in the open Atlantic. It’ll be in no mans land 

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This storm is likely to struggle to landfall. Will probably see some additional weakening before the center crosses the coast. Storms can’t just sit in the same spot and strengthen like this. It’s like a fire, it’ll burn the fuel but once the fuel begins to be exhausted the flames will slowly die out. Not to mention the shear picked up a good 18 hours before it was forecast to do so. You could watch the barb of SW shear approach the system through the day yesterday. However, surge and heavy rain are going to be serious impacts, regardless of the final landfall intensity. 

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4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Who cares what it does out in the open Atlantic. It’ll be in no mans land 

Not with that  big  high to the  north

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Incredible that Sally is still off the coast at 1 AM CDT tonight (Wednesday). By the time it's nearing landfall, it's own precipitation envelope near the core and especially between the center and the coast will have cooled SSTs further to the point it begins to lose thermal support. Unless Sally picks up forward motion, I am becoming doubtful it will maintain hurricane intensity through landfall. There may even be a few periods of intensification today only to finally succumb to the loss of heat flux and lapse rates over night due to an expanding cold pool. The low-level pressure gradient may broaden significantly as well. Having said that, flooding is the gorilla regardless if Sally manages to be classified a minimal 'cane or makes landfall as a tropical storm.

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This morning's 06z HWRF run has landfall for Sally around 06z (2 AM CDT) over night. That being said, it has a strengthening hurricane into landfall at 967 mb with a clear eye on simulated IR. I'd be very skeptical of that modeled intensity. I am not sure the real-time environmental changes under the hood would support such a scenario. Though ocean-coupled, I'd speculate that realistic SST profile input and projection data would lag for model output.8f9d198ac78383f1789ddad99638172f.jpg&key=cdf6e53f4720dbc5045759afc45387ac8d621d38db390e0cd9e5a43a353921bfcf46614aa9ee41e49e3e001f38fd4482.jpg&key=1fa0061dba99e1304512aea9b69aa8ea53e14a03e20e20ffe11aacffbaebe9c7d7aaead10b6808445606176e7ffea16e.jpg&key=5e7ac0459d944c4b975948a8ccbdd5b49616c4d0ae277aa6fc251ea447f05a60

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The radar presentation this morning is the best this storm has looked so far.  Essentially, the storm looks to have undergone an eye-wall replacement of sorts with the collapse of the once 4 mile wide eye that had drilled down with yesterdays insane convective blow up with a +- 25 mile wide eye that is nearly closed.  

Most models have long insisted that modest intensification would occur as the storm nears landfall, and with the friction effects common as storms near the coast, it would not be surprising at all to see the core tighten as it nears the coast.  Some modest strengthening along with the slow movement and rather large wind-field is trouble for Mobile Bay if the center landfalls near the Mississippi/Alabama border which is rather likely.  

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2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Not with that  big  high to the  north

Bro do you even science?  Explain your reasoning if you want to be taken at least a little bit seriously and not dismissed immediately.

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